Cointelegraph

The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s civil lawsuit against Gemini Trust Company and Genesis Global Capital in the Earn-related unregistered securities case has been dismissed with prejudice.

Court filings show the parties submitted a joint stipulation to dismiss the action on Friday in the US District Court in the Southern District of New York, effectively ending the SEC’s claim over Gemini’s crypto lending program with Genesis.

The SEC was content with the dismissal based on a 100% in-kind return of Gemini investors’ crypto assets through the Genesis bankruptcy case in mid-2024 and Gemini agreeing to contribute up to $40 million to help fund the return of all crypto assets to Gemini Earn investors.

Extract of the SEC’s joint stipulation to dismiss the case involving Gemini and Genesis.

The SEC was satisfied with the dismissal based on the 100% in-kind return of Gemini Earn investors’ crypto assets through the Genesis bankruptcy proceedings in mid-2024, which included Gemini contributing up to $40 million to help fund the full recovery of customer assets.

The SEC brought the case against the Winklevoss-led Gemini and Genesis in January 2023, during the Biden administration, when crypto-related lawsuits and investigations surged as part of a broader regulatory crackdown on the industry.

SEC continues to drop cases

Gemini’s case adds to a growing list of crypto cases that US government agencies have dropped since the Trump administration took over in January 2025, which has promised to deregulate the sector.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

Blockchain security company CertiK is keeping the door open to a future initial public offering, according to co-founder and CEO Ronghui Gu.

Speaking in an interview with Acumen Media on Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Gu said CertiK’s valuation stands at about $2 billion and that pursuing a public listing would be a natural step for the company. However, the CEO said the company would need “investment, lots of strategic partnerships” to achieve this goal.

“We still do not have a very concrete IPO plan, but this is definitely the goal we are pursuing,” said Gu, adding that CertiK going public would represent a significant step for Web3 infrastructure companies: 

“Many people want to see the success of CertiK, want to see the successful IPO of CertiK, because they view [it as] important not only for CertiK but also for the industry.”

CertiK co-founder and CEO Ronghui Gu speaking from Davos. Source: Acumen Media

CertiK is a blockchain security company that audits smart contracts and provides risk monitoring tools for crypto projects.

Several other companies in crypto and blockchain are reportedly planning to go public in the future, including Ledger. The BitGO custody company launched its IPO on Thursday with a reported valuation of more than $2 billion, with shares trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Coinbase went public in 2021 as the first significant US-based crypto exchange to do so, and stablecoin issuer Circle followed in June 2025.

Crypto leaders gather in Davos to discuss policy, partnerships

Gu’s update on CertiK’s IPO was one of many announcements from crypto industry executives in Davos. Among the attendees included former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire.

Magazine: ‘If you want to be great, make enemies’: Solana economist Max Resnick

Cryptocurrency exchange Binance is looking into relaunching markets for tokenized stocks for the first time in five years.

In a statement to Cointelegraph on Friday, a spokesperson for Binance said “exploring the potential to offer tokenized equities is a natural next step” for bridging traditional finance and crypto. Should the exchange reintroduce digital versions of stocks for companies, it would represent a significant change in Binance’s offerings since it announced “ceasing support for stock tokens” in July 2021.

"Binance is committed to bridging traditional finance and crypto, expanding user choices while maintaining the highest regulatory standards,” said the spokesperson. “Since last year, we started supporting tokenized real-world assets and we recently launched the first regulated TradFi perpetual contracts settled in stablecoin.”

The crypto exchange launched its stock tokens in April 2021, starting with Tesla and moving on to Coinbase and other technology and crypto companies, including MicroStrategy, Apple and Microsoft. However, the offerings drew scrutiny from German financial regulators. The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority also ordered Binance to halt “regulated activity” in the country in June 2021.

In December, a change to Binance’s application programming interface signaled that the platform was laying the groundwork for potential stock trading features, though the exchange did not confirm this move at the time. US-based crypto exchange Coinbase is also reportedly exploring adding tokenized stocks. 

US market structure bill to address tokenized equities?

The US Senate Agriculture Committee and Senate Banking Committee are both considering legislation to establish digital asset market structure in the country. Although the agriculture committee is scheduled to hold a markup on its version of the bill on Tuesday, the banking committee’s markup has been postponed indefinitely after Coinbase pulled its support.

In a social media post outlining his rejection of the market structure bill on Jan. 14, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said it would be a “defacto ban on tokenized equities” if signed into law as written.

Other interest groups, including banking associations and lawmakers, have opposed the bill for provisions on stablecoin rewards, conflicts of interest and decentralized finance.

Magazine: A ‘tsunami’ of wealth is headed for crypto: Nansen’s Alex Svanevik

Stablecoins are increasingly being used across Africa as a cheaper and faster remittance option, with remittances becoming “more important than aid” on the continent, according to Vera Songwe, a former UN under-secretary-general.

Speaking at a World Economic Forum panel in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday, Songwe said traditional money transfer services in Africa often cost about $6 for every $100 sent, making cross-border payments expensive and slow.

She said stablecoins are cutting fees and settlement times, allowing individuals and small businesses to move money in minutes rather than waiting days for cross-border payments to clear.

Vera Songwe, right, speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Source: WEF

Songwe said inflation has exceeded 20% in “about 12 to 15 countries” across Africa since the COVID-19 pandemic, arguing that stablecoins provide a way to store value in currencies less exposed to inflation and serve as a financial safety net. She said:

650 million people don’t have access to a bank account in Africa. With a smartphone you have access to stablecoins, so you can save in a currency that is not exposed to fluctuations of inflation and making you poor.”

According to Songwe, stablecoin usage is highest in Egypt, Nigeria, Ethiopia and South Africa, countries marked by high inflation or strict capital controls. She added that most transactions are driven by small- and medium-size enterprises, an indication that stablecoins are functioning as a broad financial inclusion tool.

Songwe is the chair and founder of the Liquidity and Sustainability Facility and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. She previously served as a UN under-secretary-general and as executive secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa.

African countries advance crypto legislation

A Chainalysis report in September showed that Sub-Saharan Africa is among the world’s fastest growing regions for crypto adoption. The region received more than $205 billion in onchain value from July 2024 to June 2025, a roughly 52% increase year over year, ranking it third worldwide.

Total monthly onchain value received by Sub-Saharan Africa from July 2022 to June 2025. Source: Chainlaysis

As crypto adoption accelerates across the continent, national responses are beginning to diverge, ranging from formal legalization and tax integration to more cautious, risk-focused oversight.

In December, Ghana legalized cryptocurrency trading after parliament passed the Virtual Asset Service Providers bill, establishing a formal regulatory framework for the industry. Bank of Ghana Governor Johnson Asiama said the law allows crypto activity while giving authorities tools to manage associated risks.

On Jan. 13, Nigeria implemented new rules requiring crypto service providers to link transactions to users’ tax identification numbers. The change is designed to bring cryptocurrency activity into the tax net through identity-based reporting, reducing the need for direct blockchain surveillance by regulators.

In South Africa, the national bank recently flagged crypto assets and stablecoins as an emerging financial stability risk as local adoption continues to grow. 

Magazine: Here’s why crypto is moving to Dubai and Abu Dhabi

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone said he has reversed his long-term outlook on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, arguing that investors should “sell the rallies” across risk assets in 2026.

In McGlone’s view, the conditions that once made Bitcoin (BTC) compelling have changed fundamentally. What began as a scarce, disruptive asset has become part of a crowded and highly speculative ecosystem, increasingly correlated with equities and vulnerable to the same macro forces that drive traditional markets.

He draws parallels with past market peaks, pointing to excessive speculation, the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and historically low volatility as warning signs. Bitcoin, he argues, has gone from being a hedge against the system to being firmly inside it, and that changes everything.

The conversation goes well beyond crypto. McGlone lays out a stark macro outlook for stocks, commodities and precious metals, noting that gold’s explosive rally may be less a sign of strength than a signal of deeper instability. 

In McGlone's words, when “the stupid rock” starts outperforming everything else, investors should pay attention.

Watch the full interview on Cointelegraph's official YouTube channel for McGlone's view on how low Bitcoin could fall, and which signals he is watching instead.

Onchain derivatives platform Paradex refunded $650,000 to about 200 users after a maintenance-related software error triggered unintended liquidations across multiple markets.

According to a Friday post-mortem shared on X by Paradex, the incident occurred during a planned 30-minute database upgrade on Monday, when a “race condition” caused corrupted market data to be written onchain. Paradex said the issue was operational and not the result of a hack or security breach.

In response, Paradex temporarily disabled access to the platform, canceled all open orders except take-profit and stop-loss orders, and rolled back the chain to a snapshot taken before the maintenance window began. 

Source: Paradex

Paradex is an onchain derivatives platform that lets traders take leveraged perpetual positions while keeping control of their funds, rather than depositing assets with a centralized exchange.

The incident marked the first rollback of Paradex Chain, which the exchange described as “an undesired but necessary action to protect users and restore network integrity.”

Paradex said it has implemented changes to prevent a recurrence, including updated service restart procedures, additional data validation checks, a revised scale-up process for full-downtime maintenance windows and price-band protections during post-only trading periods.

Trading disruptions driven by technical failures

Recent incidents highlight how operational and infrastructure failures, rather than hacks, can disrupt derivatives trading and crypto market access.

In October, decentralized exchange dYdX paused trading for about eight hours after a code-ordering error and delayed oracle restarts led to mispriced trading and liquidations. The exchange put forth a governance vote on compensating affected traders with up to $462,000 from the protocol’s insurance fund.

Technical disruptions have also affected traditional derivatives markets. In November, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) halted trading for about 10 hours after a cooling failure at a CyrusOne data center in Illinois disrupted operations, triggering complaints from traders. 

Source: CME Group

Internet infrastructure provider Cloudflare reported an “internal service degradation” in November. The issue disrupted access to the front ends of several major cryptocurrency platforms, briefly preventing users from reaching exchanges, wallets and data dashboards. 

The outage affected crypto companies such as Coinbase, Blockchain.com, BitMEX, Ledger and DefiLlama.

Magazine: A ‘tsunami’ of wealth is headed for crypto: Nansen’s Alex Svanevik

United States lawmakers postponed a planned markup of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY), delaying progress on a bill intended to define how cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms are regulated and prompting renewed pushback from DeFi leaders who say the bill still fails to adequately protect developers. 

Industry groups and crypto venture firms warned that proposed amendments could impose requirements that are not suitable for decentralized systems. Representatives from Paradigm and Variant said the current draft leaves unresolved ambiguity over whether DeFi developers and infrastructure providers could be forced to implement Know Your Customer (KYC), register with financial regulators or comply with rules designed for centralized platforms.

The delay follows mounting criticism from across the crypto sector, including public opposition from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, which led Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott to announce a “brief pause.” 

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Vitalik Buterin calls for a new DAO design for onchain disputes and governance

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin called for a rethink of how decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) are designed, arguing that most DAOs have become little more than token-voting treasuries. 

Buterin said that this model is inefficient, vulnerable and fails to improve on traditional governance systems. He added that DAOs should be purpose-built to support core infrastructure like oracles, onchain dispute resolution, insurance decisions and long-term project stewardship. 

Source: Vitalik Buterin

He also outlined how different governance issues require different structures, distinguishing between cases that benefit from decisive leadership and broad compromise. 

Buterin warned that low participation, whale dominance and decision fatigue remain major challenges, and said that privacy tools, limited AI assistance and better governance design are crucial to DAOs. 

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DeFi protocol Pendle revamps governance token, citing low adoption

DeFi protocol Pendle is revamping its governance model by phasing out its vePENDLE token and introducing a new liquid staking and governance token, sPENDLE. 

The team said vePENDLE’s long lock-up periods, lack of transferability and complex voting mechanics limited participation, even as the protocol grew to nearly $3.5 billion in total value locked (TVL). 

Source: Pendle

The new token aims to lower the barriers by allowing withdrawals after a 14-day unwinding period, enabling integrations across other DeFi platforms and simplifying governance participation. 

Pendle is also streamlining requirements for voting and plans to use up to 80% of protocol revenue for governance rewards and token buybacks. 

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New SEC submissions press on self-custody and DeFi regulation

Two new submissions to the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s crypto task force are adding pressure on regulators to clarify how self-custody rights and DeFi activity should be treated under upcoming market structure rules. 

A filing referencing Louisiana law that protects retail users' right to self-custody warned that overly broad exemptions in federal proposals can weaken investor protections and increase risks of fraud. 

Another submission from the Blockchain Association argued that companies trading tokenized equities or DeFi assets from their own accounts should not automatically be classified as regulated dealers.

The filings come as negotiations continue in Congress, with policymakers and industry figures pushing for a compromise. 

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Aave refocuses on DeFi, hands Lens stewardship to Mask Network

Lending protocol Aave handed stewardship of Lens Protocol to Mask Network, narrowing its role to technical advisory support as it refocuses on DeFi.

Under the transition, Mask Network will lead consumer-facing development and product execution for Lens-based social applications, while the protocol's core infrastructure remains permissionless and open-source. 

Source: Stani Kulechov

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin welcomed the move and commented that decentralized social networks built on shared data layers are essential for fostering competition and improving online discourse. 

Continue reading

DeFi market overview 

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the red.

The White Whale (WHITEWHALE) token fell by over 57% throughout the week, marking the biggest drop in the last seven days. This was followed by a token called Merlin Chain (MERL), which dropped 48% last week. 

Total value locked in DeFi. Source: DefiLlama

Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.

Shares of digital asset custodian BitGo Holdings (BTG) have swung sharply since the company’s public debut on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, with early gains quickly reversing as initial IPO enthusiasm cooled and investors moved to lock in profits.

BitGo priced its initial public offering at $18 a share and it jumped about 25% in its first day of trading, reflecting strong early demand. While the stock closed only modestly higher in its first full session, the rally proved short-lived.

Shares have since fallen below their IPO price, declining as much as 13.4% on Friday, according to Yahoo Finance data.

The volatility appears to reflect profit-taking following the first-day surge, a relatively limited public float typical of newly listed companies and broader uncertainty surrounding crypto-related equities, which have been prone to sharp price movements amid shifting investor sentiment.

At its IPO price, BitGo was valued at $2 billion.

BTGO stock. Source: Yahoo Finance

As Cointelegraph previously reported, the company first signaled its intention to go public in September 2025, after filing regulatory paperwork with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. BitGo, which provides digital asset custody and infrastructure services, reports more than $90 billion in assets under custody on its platform.

Related: Bitwise launches actively managed ETF pairing Bitcoin with gold

Crypto IPO momentum continues despite market pressure

Several high-profile cryptocurrency companies are reportedly exploring public listings despite persistent market headwinds, signaling continued confidence in long-term investor demand.

The Financial Times reported this week that hardware wallet provider Ledger is considering a US initial public offering at a valuation exceeding $4 billion.

Meanwhile, digital asset exchange Kraken recently raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation, fueling renewed speculation about a potential IPO. Co-CEO Arjun Sethi has said the company is not rushing toward a public listing.

Still, recent IPO performance has been uneven. Shares of companies that went public in 2025 have underperformed the S&P 500, according to Bloomberg data, with mid-sized public listings struggling the most. 

Source: Matthew, MBA

“The biggest takeaway is that we’re firmly back in a fundamentals-driven market,” said Mike Bellin, an IPO expert at PwC. “Investors have become far more selective, and companies must enter the market with a sharper story and stronger operational direction.”

Related: Kraken IPO, M&A deals to reignite crypto's 'mid-stage' cycle: fund manager

Authorities in France have started a preliminary investigation into a breach of cryptocurrency tax platform Waltio that could have compromised users’ personal data.

According to a Thursday notice by French cybersecurity authorities, the Paris Public Prosecutor's Office and the country’s National Cyber ​​Unit were investigating the nature of the stolen data and identities of Waltio users. The notice warned that users affected by the breach could be targeted in an attempt to move their digital assets under the guise of legitimate security concerns.

Thursday notice on Waltio data breach. Source: Paris Public Prosecutor's Office

According to a Friday report from Le Parisien, a group of hackers called the Shiny Hunters sent a ransom demand to Waltio following the attack. The hackers obtained personal data from about 50,000 Waltio users, the majority of whom were based in France.

Many criminals have targeted crypto users globally in person after obtaining personal data regarding their holdings, names and addresses. The notice warned that such users in France could be the victims of “kidnappings and unlawful detentions,” or have close relatives put at risk to extort them out of their crypto holdings. 

The targeting of crypto users or their relatives has become known colloquially as a “wrench attack,” in which a criminal kidnaps or holds someone hostage, sometimes using violence to force them to transfer their digital assets. Some users in France have been the victims of such attacks, and there are similar reports from several countries.

French financial regulators oversee MiCA transition period

Authorities in France reportedly issued warnings to crypto companies not in compliance with the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework. The regulation, passed by EU policymakers, gives companies a transition period ending June 30 to provide notice as to whether they will seek a MiCA license or wind down operations in the country.

Magazine: A ‘tsunami’ of wealth is headed for crypto: Nansen’s Alex Svanevik

Bitcoin (BTC) may remain pinned below $100,000 for the first half of 2026 as the market lacks bullish catalysts amid macroeconomic uncertainties. 

Key takeaways:

BTC price has a less than 10% chance of retaking $100,000 before Feb. 1, according to prediction markets.

Traders predict that Bitcoin is unlikely to see $100,000 before June.

Bitcoin’s price will likely drop below Strategy’s cost basis.

Less than 10% chance BTC hits $100,000 before February

The majority of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi don’t expect Bitcoin to return to a six-figure price over the next seven days. 

As of Jan. 22, Polymarket bettors are pricing in about 6% odds of BTC crossing $100,000 before Jan. 31. Kalshi sets 7% odds of BTC touncing the $100,000 psychological level before the end of January.

Bitcoin $100K price target before Jan. 31. Source: Polymarket

Bitcoin’s high for 2026 sits at $97,900, reached on Jan. 14, and the last time the BTC/USD pair traded above $100,000 was on Nov. 13. 

Related: Bitcoiners reject quantum computing fears as cause of price slump

The last time BTC/USD dropped below $100,000, it reclaimed the level after 93 days following a 25.5% drawdown. 

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If a similar scenario plays out, BTC price could retake $100,000 in mid-February, as shown in the chart below.

However, traders on Kalshi say that this may take longer, estimating a 65% chance that Bitcoin will break $100,000 before June 2026. 

Bitcoin $100K price target before May. 31. Source: Kalshi

In fact, traders on Polymarket see 65% odds of BTC dropping to $80,000 first, before returning to $100,000 in 2026.

Kalshi bettors price in 54% odds that Bitcoin will bottom out at $70,000 this year. Furthermore, the chance of it going to $65,000 is 50% and going as low as $60,000 is 42%.

Will BTC price drop below Strategy’s cost basis?

There are increasing signs that Bitcoin has transitioned into a bear market, with targets as low as $58,000. 

Traders on Polymarket set a 75% chance that Bitcoin will trade below Strategy’s average BTC cost price in 2026, which is $75,979  at the time of writing.

Odds that Bitcoin drops below Strategy’s average cost. Source: Polymarket.

Despite the expected drawdown in price, Polymarket odds for Strategy selling Bitcoin in 2026 remain below 26%, while expectations for routine small buys stay elevated.

Polymarket traders still see routine Strategy purchases throughout the year as a high-probability event, with an 84% chance of it holding over $800,000 BTC by Dec. 31. 

Last week, Strategy expanded its Bitcoin treasury to 709,715 BTC after buying 22,305 coins for roughly $2.13 billion.

Grayscale has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a spot exchange-traded fund tracking BNB, marking one of the asset manager’s most ambitious moves beyond Bitcoin and Ether.

According to a registration statement filed on Friday, the proposed Grayscale BNB ETF would hold BNB (BNB) directly and issue shares designed to reflect the token’s market value, minus fees and expenses. The filing indicates the fund is intended to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol GBNB, subject to regulatory approval.

If approved, the product would give US investors regulated exposure to BNB without needing to custody the token themselves or hold it on crypto exchanges.

Source: SEC

A filing tied to BNB is notable, as the token is the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, with a total value of $120.5 billion at the time of filing.

BNB is the native token of the Binance ecosystem and plays a central role across its products. The token is used to pay transaction fees on the BNB Smart Chain, participate in onchain governance and receive trading fee discounts on Binance’s platform, among other use cases.

Expansion beyond Bitcoin and Ether

Grayscale’s filing does not represent the first attempt to bring a BNB-linked ETF to the US market.

Investment manager VanEck submitted a registration statement for its own proposed BNB ETF, including an amended Form S-1 seeking a Nasdaq listing under the ticker VBNB, placing it further along in the regulatory review process than Grayscale’s proposal.

Still, the filing highlights Grayscale’s broader strategy to expand its lineup of crypto investment products following the approval and successful launches of spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs in the United States.

Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs together hold more than $100 billion in assets under management, underscoring investor demand for regulated crypto exposure. A BNB-linked product would extend that access beyond base-layer networks, offering exposure to a token closely tied to a major crypto exchange ecosystem.

The total value of crypto ETFs under management. Source: Coinglass

Related: Grayscale forms trusts tied to potential BNB and HYPE ETFs

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed trapped below $90,000 at Friday’s Wall Street open as gold and silver approached historic milestones.

Key points:

Bitcoin fails to shift its sideways trading behavior while gold comes within 2% of $5,000 per ounce.

Bullish BTC price outlooks become increasingly rare as safe havens outperform.

Gold snags an unprecedented $23,000 target for the next eight years.

Bitcoin price shies away from breakout moves

Data from TradingView showed stationary BTC price action contrasting more and more with record highs for precious metals.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As traders agreed that new macro lows were on the cards for BTC/USD, upside targets increasingly focused on the 2025 yearly open at $93,500.

“So my bullish outlook still has our going down overall to $75,000 - $70,000 region, but we revisit $100,000 first,” trader Crypto Tony told X followers in his latest analysis. 

Crypto Tony noted that the 2025 starting level coincided with a nearby “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures, potentially increasing its pull as a price magnet.

“We would only see this happen if we get that leg up to $93,000 to close the CME gap IMO,” he continued.

“A tap of $85,000 would present the best long opportunity. IF WE HOLD.”

BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-day chart. Source: Crypto Tony/X

Earlier, BTC/USD “filled” an open gap at $88,000 before rebounding to current levels, with the only gaps remaining now above the spot price.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed thickening liquidation levels at $88,300 and $90,100 as the US trading session approached.

BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap (Binance). Source: CoinGlass

“If the $86.8K level is lost and doesn't get reclaimed quickly after that, I would assume we'll start to see a test of the lows,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe wrote in an X update on the day. 

“On the other hand, a crucial level is found at $91K. Break that & we'll see a strong surge.”

BTC?USD one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Gold prediction sees $23,000 per ounce

Headlines mainly focused on precious metals as both gold and silver neared the key psychological levels of $5,000 and $100, respectively. 

XAU/USD reached new highs of $4,967 per ounce overnight, with BTC/XAU barely holding the 18-ounce mark.

XAU/USD three-month chart with one-month RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

While gold’s monthly relative strength index (RSI) values hit their most “overbought” since the 1970s, bullish price forecasts continued to flow.

Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, came out with a giant $23,000 gold price tag.

“We have record high Central bank gold accumulation. China has 10Xed their gold stack in the last 2 years alone,” he wrote in a blog post dedicated to analysis of gold within the current macro landscape. 

“We have an incredible 10.5% fiat money supply inflation per year, ratcheting up asset prices.”

Gold demand data. Source: Capriole Investments/Substack

Edwards suggested that the current asset bull run could well follow in the footsteps of the greatest periods of expansion over the twentieth century.

“If is, we can expect the gold price to trend to between $12,000 to $23,000 over the coming 3-8 years,” he concluded. 

Nansen founder Alex Svanevik believes the crypto market is on the verge of an explosive few years.

Its like a tidal wave, you know, a tsunami that’s coming, he tells Magazine, pointing to the trillions of dollars in assets held by older generations about to be transferred to their heirs.

I think something like $100 trillion is going to be inherited in the next 20 years or so. There are all these kinds of forces that I think just drive crypto upwards, says the Norwegian-born, Singapore-based crypto entrepreneur.

Its one of a bunch of reasons why I think crypto is fundamentally inevitable, he declares, explaining that it opens the door for a younger generation far more willing to invest in digital assets.

Gen Z significantly more trusting than boomers

Svanevik says that the average boomers investment portfolio is crypto-lite compared to the average millennials, which has quite a lot. Gen Z are five times more trusting of crypto than boomers, according to a recent survey by crypto exchange OKX.

Svanevik points out the younger generation will not only be inheriting cash, but also real estate, stocks, and businesses. 

He said that if only 3% of those assets flow into crypto, the market could effectively double from its current $3.05 trillion market cap, with individual crypto asset prices surging far higher.

They’re going to go up way more because of how pricing works in markets, he explains.

He even thinks that forecasts could be too conservative. If you just think of their investment preferences, a lot of that is going to go into crypto, he says.

Svanevik reveals biggest challenge in crypto industry

One reason crypto has failed to widely win over older, more skeptical investors may be that the products are not yet good enough, according to Svanevik.

The incentives have been to launch tokens, he says, arguing that chasing token launches instead of building world-class products is a mistake. But he now believes the infrastructure is finally mature enough to build sophisticated products.

The product we have built could not have been built two or three years ago because the infrastructure wasn’t there, he says. The wallet technology wasn’t good enough, he says.

(Alex Svanevik)

Nansen is an onchain analytics platform launched by Svanevik with co-founders Lars Bakke Krogvig and Evgeny Medvedev in 2020. It has expanded its analytics capabilities over the years, but only recently have traders been able to both gain insights and execute trades on the same platform.

I think the number one problem is like, we have to build better products, and when we do that, we will get more users, we’ll get more traction, and it’ll be more sustainable than, you know, punting on the next meme coin.

He stresses it isnt a talent problem, emphasizing that the crypto industry is full of talent. 

Who is Alex Svanevik? 

Svanevik stumbled across Ethereum in 2017 and within a year knew he wanted to join crypto full-time. He joined CoinFi as chief data scientist in 2018, but the crypto crash that year cut that stint shorter than he anticipated. However, it was the perfect setup to start developing Nansen with his co-founders Krogvig and Medvedev.

(Alex Svanevik)

He named the platform after Norwegian scientist and explorer Fridtjof Nansen. I think of people in crypto as kind of like explorers. They’re going to places where no one’s ever been, yeah? And they’re venturing out into the unknown. They’re taking a lot of risks, he says.

I think having an idol who embodied those values of courage, curiosity, transparency, speed, and moving fast makes a lot of sense, he adds.

Svanevik says he isnt in crypto to make mega bucks and keeps life fairly simple he doesnt even own a car.

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I think the thing that motivates me is that vision to basically create the future of finance, you know, where every asset is tokenized. Billions of people are owners, and blockchains are the financial fabric of the future, he says.

Frankly, it sounds cheesy, but like, literally, that is the motivation, he says.

Svanevik has been in the tech industry since graduating from the University of Bergen with a Bachelor of Cognitive Science in 2009.

In August 2010, he co-founded his first data analytics company, Codeus Ltd, where he developed an end-to-end analytics solution for an electrical engineering company.

In May 2014, he began a 4-year stint at Schibsted Media Group, where he started as a data scientist and rose the ranks quickly within the company.

Crypto market may be too aligned with Trump administration 

Svanevik is worried crypto is becoming too connected to US politics.

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The current administration has aligned itself very closely with crypto, he says, arguing that it is almost like if that administration is popular, that’s correlated with crypto doing well because, and conversely, if it’s less popular, that’s bad for crypto.

Svanevik points out that uncertainty over the next election could be adding to the jitters. 

(Alex Svanevik)

While Svanevik says that there have been many positive drivers for crypto from regulations to adoption, at the same time, from a markets perspective it has been quite weak in recent times.

If we look at 2025, it was a very strange year, because there were a lot of really positive things to happen in crypto, but at the same time, prices were relatively depressed, and we didn’t get kind of the altcoin market. Meme coins did poorly and so on and so forth, he says.

However, he says that once the CLARITY Act passes through Congress, it will lead to a new era for crypto in the US.

The rest of the world is going to follow. That’s one big factor, he says.

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While geopolitical tensions and the Greenland standoff set the tone at Davos 2026, crypto resurfaced as a secondary but consequential theme.

US President Donald Trump used a few minutes of his Davos speech to double down on his ambition to turn the US into the world’s crypto capital and voice support for crypto-friendly legislation.

His tone was different from central banks. In a panel with crypto bigwigs, the governor of the Bank of France criticized private money and yield-bearing stablecoins while promoting central bank digital currencies (CBDC).

Crypto executives debated money sovereignty with France’s central bank governor at Davos 2026. Source: World Economic Forum

Crypto consensus did not emerge in Davos, but a visible point of disagreement did. US political messaging framed crypto as a geopolitical asset, while at least one major European central banker warned that private money threatens financial stability and sovereignty.

Here are the crypto takeaways from Davos 2026.

Trump frames crypto regulation as a geopolitical race

Donald Trump said in his Davos speech on Wednesday that he hopes to sign a crypto market structure bill “very soon.”

Also known as the CLARITY Act, the bill was due for a US Senate markup last week but was delayed after crypto giants like Coinbase pulled support.

Trump treated the US crypto regulation as a matter of geopolitical urgency.

“It is politically popular but much more importantly, we have to make it so that China doesn’t have a hold of it, and once they get that hold, we won’t be able to get it back. So I’m honored to have done it,” Trump said, referring to his signing of the GENIUS Act. He linked the bill to the importance of the pending market structure legislation.

Related: US crypto market structure bill in limbo as industry pulls support

The White House wants the US to be the crypto capital of the world and sees regulation as a competitive weapon. Trump acknowledged that the bill remains in Congress but spoke as if its passing were a matter of timing.

The US president’s special address was introduced by BlackRock’s Larry Fink, the CEO of the world’s largest asset manager. Trump spoke for more than an hour; crypto accounted for only a small section of his speech.

Trump’s soliloquy took up most of his time on stage, even though he was scheduled for a fireside chat with WEF CEO Børge Brende. Source: World Economic Forum

Coinbase CEO and French central banker clash over money sovereignty

One of the most widely shared crypto moments at Davos came when France’s top central banker pushed back against crypto, even as he praised tokenization in a Wednesday panel discussion.

Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau said tokenization and stablecoins are likely to be “the name of the game” in 2026, stating that they can modernize financial infrastructure. He acknowledged tokenization as a meaningful financial advance, particularly for wholesale markets, and cited Europe’s CBDC efforts as a global frontrunner.

Real-world asset token value is closing in on $23 billion. Source: RWA.xyz

That enthusiasm faded as the discussion turned to monetary sovereignty. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong described Bitcoin (BTC) as a modern successor to the gold standard and a check on democratic deficit spending.

Villeroy de Galhau clapped back by saying that money is inseparable from sovereignty. Handing monetary control to private systems would amount to surrendering a function of democracy, he said.

Armstrong responded by pointing to Bitcoin’s decentralized structure to claim that it is even more independent than fiat systems and called the tension a “healthy competition,” which got a chuckle from Villeroy de Galhau.

Villeroy de Galhau also drew a line against interest-bearing stablecoins, which he said could destabilize the existing financial system. US crypto executives argued that rewards are necessary to keep stablecoins competitive with China’s CBDC.

Related: Bitcoin offers ‘no haven’ from Trump’s Greenland dreams

Binance leaves door open to US return

Binance co-CEO Richard Teng did not rule out a return to the US. He said the company is taking a “wait-and-see” approach in an interview with CNBC on the sidelines of the Davos forum.

Teng avoided commitments while leaving the door open, but Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse was more explicit in a separate interview with the outlet. Garlinghouse predicted that Binance would eventually return to the “very large” market.

Binance launched Binance.US in 2019 as a separate entity to serve US customers. But according to US regulators, Binance continued to service “VIP” customers through its offshore platform, leading to a 2023 Department of Justice settlement. Founder Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to failing to maintain an effective Anti-Money Laundering program, served a jail sentence and was later pardoned by President Trump.

Zhao was also present at Davos and took part in a panel discussion on Thursday, where he claimed that crypto has proven that it is not going away.

Zhao claimed to be in talks with about a dozen governments about tokenizing assets. Source: World Economic Forum

Though they were in separate panels, Zhao aligned with Bank of France’s Villeroy de Galhau on tokenization, calling it the next phase of the industry, along with artificial intelligence and payments.

He said he is in discussions with multiple governments about tokenizing state-owned assets as a way to unlock value and reinvest it into economic development.

Circle’s Allaire calls bank run fears absurd

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire dismissed fears that interest-paying stablecoins could destabilize the banking system in a Thursday panel in Davos.

Allaire called bank run concerns “totally absurd,” arguing that the incentives involved are too small to threaten monetary policy or drain deposits.

He added that interest payments function primarily as customer retention tools rather than systemic disruptors.

Stablecoins have an estimated market capitalization of over $300 billion. Source: DefiLlama

Allaire then cited government money market funds as a historical comparison. Despite repeated warnings over the years, roughly $11 trillion has flowed into money market funds without collapsing bank lending, he said.

Lending, he argued, is already shifting away from banks toward private credit and capital markets, independent of stablecoins.

What Davos revealed about crypto priorities

Public image for stablecoins was badly tarnished in 2022, when the Terra ecosystem suffered a multibillion-dollar collapse. The failure began with TerraUSD (UST), an algorithmic stablecoin backed by the network’s native token, LUNA.

Stablecoins have since flipped the narrative. It’s now an important topic in the annual meeting of the world’s most powerful voices in geopolitics and economy. Even central bankers who are generally critical of the crypto industry acknowledge them as core themes to watch alongside tokenization.

Davos 2026 reinforced stablecoins and tokenization as part of the year’s policy conversation. The US executive branch and Europe’s banking sector remain philosophically divided on approach, and regulatory developments are still constrained by domestic politics.

Magazine: The critical reason you should never ask ChatGPT for legal advice

The world’s largest global wealth manager, UBS, is reportedly exploring a move to open crypto trading to its wealthiest clients. 

Bloomberg reported Friday, citing a person familiar with the matter, that the Swiss banking giant aims to let select private banking clients in Switzerland trade Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) first, with a possible rollout to the Asia‑Pacific region and the United States later.

The person also reportedly said that UBS was currently selecting partners for its crypto offering, although the bank has not publicly confirmed the details.

UBS already runs tokenization pilots such as the uMINT tokenized US dollar money market fund on Ethereum and a Swift-UBS-Chainlink tokenized fund settlement trial, experimenting with putting traditional fund products on blockchain rails even before considering offering spot crypto trading.

UBS has also deepened its blockchain push on the payments side, teaming up with Ant International to trial tokenized deposits for real-time cross-border treasury flows using its UBS Digital Cash platform in Singapore. 

The pilot aims to let Ant move liquidity across its Alipay+ ecosystem in minutes instead of days by putting bank deposit claims on permissioned ledgers, positioning tokenized bank money as a potential replacement for legacy, cutoff‑bound correspondent banking rails.

Wall Street’s last holdouts follow suit

The Swiss group would be following US banking giant JPMorgan, which is exploring crypto trading for institutional clients and already uses its JPM Coin system for onchain wholesale payments and collateral, and asset management behemoths BlackRock and Fidelity, which have become leading issuers of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. 

Vanguard, long one of Wall Street’s most vocal crypto skeptics, effectively became one of the last major holdouts to fold when it reversed its hardline stance in December 2025 and allowed clients to trade crypto ETFs on its platform.

UBS oversaw some $4.7 trillion in wealth assets as of September 2025. If it moves ahead with crypto trading, the bank would open a new, in‑house on‑ramp for ultra‑high‑net‑worth portfolios.

Cointelegraph reached out to UBS for comment on the reported private banking crypto trading plans, but had not received a response by publication.

Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict — Crypto projects’ impossible choice

The gap between the US’s longer-dated and shorter-dated bonds has widened to its highest level since 2021, signaling potential trouble for Bitcoin (BTC) in 2026.

Key takeaways:

A wider gap means long-term yields are rising, which can pressure Bitcoin.

Japan’s long-bond selloff is driving the move and pulling US yields higher.

Rising yield gap can hurt equities (and Bitcoin)

Bitcoin’s market outlook looks increasingly bearish, if an assessment made by David Roberts, head of fixed income at Nedgroup Investments, on the global equity market is to be believed.

The gap between the US’s 2-year and 30-year yields (green). Source: Bloomberg

Roberts told Bloomberg that equities would suffer due to “a sustained push higher in yield.” He said the pressure is concentrated in longer-dated yields, particularly in Japan.

This week, Japan’s 30-year bond yield rose to a record 3.92%, widening its gap with the 2-year bond yields by 220–325 bps.

Japan’s 30-year bond yield weekly chart. Source: TradingView

It can increase by another 75–100 bps, said Lauren van Biljon, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, citing Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election vows to increase spending.

The US 30-year yield closely tracks its Japanese counterpart, indicating that it would rise alongside in the coming weeks or months.

Japan vs. the US’s 30-year yield comparison. Source: TradingView

Higher yields typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like equities, which increases the probability of Bitcoin, a “high-beta” risk asset, dropping alongside.

The assessment aligns with the so-called “four-year cycle,” which predicts BTC’s price to bottom in the $40,000-50,000 range by the end of 2026.

Source: X

Can BTC catch up to gold’s “historic alpha grab”?

Gold’s outperformance is adding another headwind for Bitcoin, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone.

In a Jan. 23 post, McGlone argued that gold’s “historic alpha grab” is pulling capital toward the traditional inflation hedge at a time when higher long-term Treasury yields are also competing for flows.

Source: X

In that setup, Bitcoin faces a tougher hurdle to reclaim key psychological levels at or above $100,000, especially if investors continue to favor lower-volatility stores of value over high-beta risk assets.

Crypto-friendly fintech unicorn Revolut plans to apply for a banking license in the United States, abandoning earlier plans to acquire a local lender as it seeks to expand its global presence, the Financial Times reported Friday.

The United Kingdom-based fintech has been in discussions with US officials about applying for a bank license through the Office for the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the newspaper reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The move, if confirmed, would be a milestone in strategy for Revolut, which said in September 2025 that it was exploring the purchase of a US bank to accelerate its global expansion.

Founded in the UK, Revolut unveiled its global strategy in 2025 and committed $13 billion in investment over the following five years to support international growth.

Following a share sale in November, Revolut was valued at $75 billion, placing it among the world’s most valuable fintechs.

Revolut hopes for faster US approval amid Trump’s deregulatory push

“It is our ambition to be a bank in the US,” Revolut US CEO Sid Jajodia reportedly said last year, adding: “We would love to get a banking license soon, because it’s part of our objective to scale in the market.”

The exec stressed that the company was still evaluating the pathways as of September 2025, adding that anything regulators can do to simplify the process would be helpful.

“A year is a long time in a tech space, so speed is critical,” Jajodia said at the time.

Source: Max Karpis

According to the report, Revolut opted to pursue a US banking license rather than acquire a local lender, betting the approval process could move more quickly under a more crypto-friendly regulatory stance in the Trump administration.

Additionally, acquiring a community bank could have obliged Revolut to maintain physical branch networks, the sources said.

Cointelegraph approached Revolut to confirm the plans, but had not received a response by publication.

Revolut yet to fully roll out as a bank in the UK

Revolut has said that becoming a fully fledged UK lender was its “number one” priority, yet the company is yet to fully roll out as a bank with all services available to UK customers.

It received a restricted banking license from the UK’s Prudential Regulation Authority in 2024.

As part of its broader global expansion push, Revolut has been securing regulatory approvals in other markets in the past few months.

In late 2025, the company said it received banking licenses in Colombia and Mexico, and in October, obtained a Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation license from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Opinion by: Laura Wallendal, co-founder and CEO of Acre

Restaking is often heralded as the next big thing in decentralized finance (DeFi) yields, but behind the hype lies a precarious balancing act. Validators are stacking responsibilities and slashing risks, incentives are misaligned, and much of the $21 billion in total value locked (TVL) is held by a handful of whales and venture capitalists rather than the broader market.

Let’s break down why restaking lacks real product-market fit and how it compounds more risk than it yields. Most importantly, we need to confront the uncomfortable questions: Who profits when the system fails, and who is left holding the risk?

Top restaking sectors market cap chart. Source: CoinGecko

Restaking doesn’t really work

By definition, restaking allows already-staked assets, typically Ether (ETH), to be pledged a second time, thereby utilizing them in securing other networks or services. In this system, validators use the same collateral to validate multiple protocols, theoretically earning more rewards from a single deposit.

On paper, this sounds efficient. In practice, it’s only leverage disguised as efficiency: a financial house of mirrors where the same ETH is counted multiple times as collateral, while each protocol piles on dependencies and potential failure points.

This is a problem. Every layer of restaking compounds exposure rather than yield.

Consider a validator that restakes into three protocols. Are they earning three times the return? Or are they taking on three times the risk? While the upside usually sets the narrative, a governance failure or slashing event in any of those downstream systems can cascade upward and wipe out collateral entirely.

Additionally, the restaking design breeds a form of quiet centralization. Managing complex validator positions across multiple networks requires scale, meaning only a handful of large operators can realistically participate. Power accumulates, resulting in a small cluster of validators securing dozens of protocols and orchestrating a fragile concentration of trust in an industry purportedly built on decentralization.

There’s a good reason why major DeFi platforms and decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid or even established lending markets aren’t relying on restaking to power their systems. Restaking has yet to prove real-world product-market fit outside speculative activity.

Source: DefiLlama

Where does the yield come from?

Immediate risks aside, restaking raises a deeper question: Does this model even make economic sense? In finance, traditional or decentralized, yield must come from productive activity. Honing in on DeFi, this might involve lending, liquidity provision or staking rewards tied to actual network usage.

Restaking’s yields, by contrast, are synthetic. They repackage the same collateral to appear more productive than it is. This is quite similar to rehypothecation in TradFi. Here, value isn’t being created; it’s just being recycled.

The extra “yield” in this framework usually comes from three familiar sources. It’s either token emissions that inflate supply to attract capital, borrowed liquidity incentives funded by venture treasuries or speculative fees paid in volatile native tokens.

Of course, that doesn’t make restaking inherently malicious. But it does make it fragile. Until there’s a clearer link between the risks validators assume and the tangible economic value their security provides, the returns will remain speculative at best.

From synthetic yields to sustainable ones

Restaking will likely continue to attract capital, but in its current form, it would be hard-pressed to achieve real, lasting product-market fit. That is, as long as incentives remain short-term, risks remain asymmetric, and the yield narrative feels increasingly removed from real economic activity.

Source: DefiLlama

As DeFi matures, sustainability will matter more than speed because protocols need transparent incentives and real users who understand the risks they’re taking over inflated TVL. That means a shift away from complex, multi-layered models toward yield systems grounded in verifiable onchain activity where rewards reflect measurable network utility rather than recycled incentives.

The most promising developments are emerging in areas like Bitcoin (BTC) native finance, layer-2 staking and cross-chain liquidity networks, where yields come from network utility and ecosystems focus on aligning user trust with capital efficiency.

DeFi doesn’t need more abstractions of risk. It requires systems that prioritize clarity over complexity.

Opinion by: Laura Wallendal, co-founder and CEO of Acre.

This opinion article presents the contributor’s expert view and it may not reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. This content has undergone editorial review to ensure clarity and relevance, Cointelegraph remains committed to transparent reporting and upholding the highest standards of journalism. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before taking any actions related to the company.

Farcaster co-founder Dan Romero moved to quell speculation around the project’s future, saying the protocol is not shutting down following its acquisition by infrastructure provider Neynar.

Farcaster is a decentralized social networking protocol that allows developers to build interoperable social apps where users own their identities, social graphs and connections onchain rather than being locked into a single platform.

In a post addressing the community, Romero said Farcaster remains operational and continues to see meaningful usage, citing roughly 250,000 monthly active users in December and over 100,000 funded wallets.

He added that Neynar, a venture-backed startup that has long built infrastructure on Farcaster, plans to steer the project in a more developer-focused direction.

Source: Dan Romero

Farcaster to return $180 million to investors

In July 2022, Merkle Manufactory, the company behind Farcaster’s development, raised $30 million from venture capital firm a16z crypto. In March 2022, it had another funding round led by Paradigm, which reportedly pushed the company's valuation past $1 billion. 

Romero said the total capital raised by Merkle over its lifetime amounts to $180 million. In a post, he said the company will return the funds to its investors. “As for Merkle, we’re planning to return the full $180 million raised back to investors,” he wrote. 

He added that the decision follows five years of development efforts and an attempt to act as responsible stewards of investor capital.

Cointelegraph reached out to Merkle Manufactory for more information, but did not get a response before publication. 

The post drew a response from Farcaster investor Balaji Srinivasan, who confirmed that investor funds are being returned. He also praised the team’s work on decentralized social infrastructure. 

Source: Balaji Srinivasan

The post follows an announcement that Neynar is acquiring Farcaster. Romero previously said that Neynar would assume responsibility for maintaining Farcaster's protocol contracts, code repositories and consumer app, marking a leadership transition. 

As part of the handover, Romero and several team members would step away from operations and move on to new projects. 

Neynar has been closely tied to Farcaster's ecosystem since its early days, operating as one of the first Farcaster clients and providing infrastructure that supports a large share of developers building on the protocol. 

Related: Vitalik Buterin calls for a new DAO design for onchain disputes and governance

Aave hands over Lens stewardship to Mask Network

Beyond Farcaster, decentralized social protocol Lens Protocol also underwent a leadership transition this week.

The Aave team said it has handed over stewardship of Lens to Mask Network, allowing Aave to refocus on decentralized finance while remaining involved with Lens in a technical advisory capacity.

While decentralized social projects are shifting leadership structures, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin voiced his support for decentralized social media and urged the community to adopt open social platforms. 

On Thursday, Buterin urged builders and users to spend more time in decentralized social ecosystems, saying the industry must move beyond centralized information warzones and into new forms of online interaction. 

“If we want a better society, we need better mass communication tools,” Buterin said. 

Magazine: Chinese users turn to ‘U cards’ to get around crypto rules: Asia Express

Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop below $90,000 has pushed onchain profitability metrics into the negative territory, signaling BTC’s entry into a bear market, new research reveals.

Data from TradingView showed that Bitcoin price action had established a new range on lower time frames, and market observers were watching the key support levels below.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin’s net realized profit/loss reveals that the market could be entering a macro downtrend.

The buyer congestion zone between $80,000 and $84,000 remains the main BTC support for now.

Bitcoin profitability cycle turns negative

In the Jan. 22 edition of its regular newsletter, The Weekly Crypto Report, onchain data provider CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin holders are transitioning from booking profits to realizing losses for the first time in over two years.

The report revealed that net realized profit/loss, which captures the aggregate gains or losses investors lock in when they move coins onchain, has dropped to 69,000 BTC over the last 30 days, signaling a significant decline in market strength.

Related: Bitcoin analysts predict ‘prolonged consolidation’ for BTC price

“Bitcoin holders began realizing net losses for the first time since October 2023,” analysts at CryptoQuant said, adding:

“Realized profits peaks have been declining since March 2024, an indication that prices are losing momentum as the bull market ends.”

Bitcoin net realized profit and loss. Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, annual net realized profits have dropped sharply, falling to 2.5 million BTC from 4.4 million BTC in October, levels last seen in March 2022.

This reinforces the theory that “onchain profit dynamics are now consistent with early-stage bear market conditions,” the analysts said.

Bitcoin: Annual net realized profit and loss chart. Source: CryptoQuant

This profitability pattern closely mirrors the 2021–2022 bull-to-bear transition when realized profits peaked in January 2021 and formed lower highs through 2021. Then they flipped into net losses ahead of the 2022 bear market, as shown in the chart above.

Severeal analysts expect 2026 to be a bear market year, and various forecasts see BTC price returning to as low as $58,000.

“Bitcoin just flashed a bear market signal,” said analyst Titan of Crypto in a recent post on X, highlighting a bearish cross from the MACD in the two-month time frame. 

“Historically, similar set-ups were followed by 50% - 64% drawdowns.”

BTC/USD two-month chart. Source: Titan of Crypto

Watch these Bitcoin price levels next

The latest sell-off has seen the BTC/USD pair draw down 9% from its 2026 high of $97,930.

As a result, Bitcoin lost key support levels, including the 75th percentile cost basis currently at $92,940.

Bitcoin “now trades below the cost basis of 75% of supply, signalling rising distribution pressure,” said Glassnode in a Thursday post on X, adding:

“Risk has shifted higher, with the downside dominant unless this level is recovered.”

Bitcoin: Supply percentiles cost basis model. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin price is “now back at the rising trendline support,” Trader Merlijn The Trader said in a Friday analysis on X, referring to the support between $89,000 and $90,000.

If this level is lost, “we are likely to revisit the range lows” around $$84,000, the trader added. 

The Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap reveals that investors acquired about 941,651 BTC at this level over the last six months, suggesting it’s a key support level.

Bitcoin costs basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

The next major level of support sits at around $80,000, where over 127,000 BTC were previously acquired.

Many analysts agree that a weak derivatives market, selling by long-term holders, and BTC transfers to exchanges could push Bitcoin’s price into an extended downtrend this year.