Bugsbunny

Currently Disproven Tracks

Gamefi (recently showing slight improvement
Socialfi (Kaito found another good angle
Defi (unclear returns, airdrop/expected value anchoring has serious issues
Layer2 (pseudo-demand
NFT (pricing issues
BTC ecosystem (no need for examples
Mixers
Inscription Runes

Strong technology but misaligned market demand tracks

Staking (retail investors cannot participate
ZK (strong technology
LSD
Depin (can be inferred, cannot be trained
Modular (low demand
Chain abstraction (low demand
Cross-chain bridge (low demand
Cloud computing (unverified
Privacy (low demand, far from funds
Intent (makes no sense
Prediction market (poly dominates
Layer3

——————————————————

Opinion Alert

Personally favored tracks
Payment Payfi
Some RWA
Derivatives
Sui ecosystem
DEX
Stablecoins
Oracles
Cefi
BTC mining
MCP (AI iteration
FHE
Agent
Storage
MEME
Data analysis
Protocol layer products

#payfi #RWA #USD1

The unstoppable usd1 is about to launch, and Binance, OKX, and Bybit are definitely the first-hand total package

If you are the on-chain leader of Binance, OKX, or Bybit, how would you handle this stablecoin?

Binance @binancezh has the Alpha Fourmeme that can drain the entire venue and offers the opportunity to be listed on Binance spot first
OKX @okxchinese has the best aggregation trading platform in the market and the largest on-chain entry
Bybit @Bybit_ZH has the upcoming Bybit Alpha

This is nearly the largest and most important narrative track recently

How will each project team seize this opportunity?

To some extent, does the lack of such market awareness among project teams mean losing market insight? Or are they just lying flat?

At this stage where compliance is the highest priority, not paying attention to usd1 projects might not even be worth investing in.

The total package is here, where is the crowdsourcing?
Payfi? RWA? DEX? Launchpad? Defi?
Aggregation trading platform?
#usd1 #ALPHA🔥 #OKX #bybit

#PCE通胀降温
A man who can shatter eight billion people in an instant

Why do large amounts of unlocked altcoins need to be sold?

First, let us understand the concept of liquidity in the K-line.
Taker liquidity can be simply understood as when selling altcoins, the market needs to have USDT to take your sale.
Maker liquidity can be simply understood as when buying altcoins, the market needs to have corresponding altcoins to buy for you.
1. When the coin price falls below the starting point of this round, it means that above the starting point, no matter where you buy, you will be trapped.
Here, it can be understood that if it rebounds to every position of large-volume decline, there will be more or less selling orders, which will increase the cost of Taker liquidity.
Here we can know that as long as it rebounds to the starting point (large-volume decline), there will be long positions that take profit. Air forces that short in the range will increase their positions and short here.
Then there will be very dense liquidity here. If the air forces are liquidated, at least the current price needs to deviate from the increase of about 15% (accurately explode 10 times the contract) to be liquidated. Only then can the price of the currency rebound further. This is also the liquidity "supply zone" that Qiu Rong has been talking about. This is a moment with a very low winning rate but a very high odds. In options, this is to chase Gamma. It is a very lottery way of playing. 2. The first point should be finished. The rebound after the decline, here is the continuous decline. When the price of the currency reaches a new low, or a new low this year, it means that there is no liquidity to take over below (here you can think about it the other way around. When you encounter the starting point and the trapped point, there will be selling pressure to prevent the rise) and selling coins will often not be tightened. Therefore, when there is no liquidity/liquidity suddenly decreases, the price of the currency will fall sharply. Take#ARBas an example. After falling below the starting point on September 12, 23, there was a huge drop in volume, and the subsequent rebound could not stand firm at the starting point (0.75U). Then, in the subsequent rebound, it is difficult to reach the position of large-volume decline. The performance on the K-line is one step at a time. Every time the rebound approaches the starting point, it will immediately stop rising (stop rising)
#MarketDownturn #加密市场反弹

#美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易

Analysis of ETF-related tokens. After the ETH ETF was approved, the related tokens also moved relatively strongly. Here we will analyze the related tokens for everyone, and will be updated in the near future.

Today's update #OP #ARB

OP
Bugsbunny's view: There are still 6 billion US dollars of OP that have not been unlocked. On July 31, 61.74 million US dollars of OP will be unlocked.
The current price has reached the liquidity concentration position. It will fluctuate between 1.93 and 2.5 dollars if it is strong, and 1.34-1.93 dollars if it is weak.
The focus here is whether there is enough buying in the market to eat up its 61.74 million dollars of selling pressure. From the perspective of the vesting schedule,
there are additional unlocking amounts in the near future, and the selling pressure has increased.
Subjectively, it is mainly based on the high point here and the fluctuation of 1.34-1.93 dollars.

Score: 4 points (10 points), 6 points for strong performance

Market value: 2.135 billion US dollars

FDV: 8.136 billion US dollars

——————————————————————————

ARB
Bugsbunny’s opinion: Since March 18, ARB has been distributed, and all K-line behaviors are mainly for shipments, and
liquidity is not abundant. It is currently near the starting point of 23.9.12. ARB unlocks a large amount. At this time, if the future selling pressure
cannot be taken up, and it falls below 0.76 dollars, stay away from ARB.
If it stands at 0.76 dollars, there is a possibility of rebound.

Score: 3 points (10 points)

Market value: 2.674 billion
FDV: 8 billion US dollars

$ARB $OP

#以太坊ETF批准预期
Everyone likes to watch the magic dance
I will also do the magic dance of science.

69300 has 718 million US dollars of liquidity
70500 has 750 million US dollars of liquidity
72300 has 1.83 billion US dollars of liquidity

The corresponding target position of the call order
is bullish 72300
$BTC

#山寨季何时到来？ #BugsbunnyAnalysis#BNB
Bugsbunny's opinion: Binance
Interest-bearing coin (Megadrop Launchpool) and the coin has an options market, sufficient liquidity targets, and the trend is highly consistent with BTC. As a shovel, it can be focused on (priority is higher than ETH). BNB is always heavily invested, with an average price of $235.

Currently rebounding to the support since March, entering the long-short game range, the overall trend is highly consistent with BTC. If BTC breaks through, the oscillation range will change from $456-535 to $535-579; if BTC does not recover, it will oscillate in the range of $424-535.

Score: 8 points (10 points) If BTC is strong, it can be given 9 points
$BNB

#山寨季何时到来？ #Bugsbunnyanalysis
#NEAR
Bugsbunny's view: The German government sells off the BTC cycle, and the support of March is inserted
Since April, the liquidity of the currency circle has been scarce, and NEAR can still consolidate strongly within the range, indicating that, relatively speaking, Near still has good buying and fundamentals, sufficient liquidity, and relatively standard trends. It is also a rare token that can participate in contracts.

The current price is $5.2, and my average cost is $4.6. The short-term stop loss should be placed around $4.0, and the short-term can be partially stopped at $5.64

Score: 9 points (10 points)

Market value: $5.7 billion
FDV: $6.24 billion
$NEAR

#山寨季何时到来？ #BugsbunnyToken Analysis

Busbunny's opinion: Until February 2025, there is no need to worry about MANTA having too high selling pressure. When the entire crypto market is weak, change the strategy and cooperate with the selling pressure to stabilize the cost. From the K-line, except for a few sudden events (BTC ETF and Japanese debt crisis), the liquidity is relatively abundant at other times. It can be seen here that MM still attaches importance to MANTA and is a top student among VC coins.
Now FDV is only twice the last round of financing. 0.5-0.6U is the institutional cost of MANTA, that is, the future liquidity concentration area. If it moves to this range in the future, it will be an opportunity to be the same price as VC.
Now the distance to the bottom range is very limited. From the short-term trend, 0.9U is the short-term liquidity position. If it falls back and does not break, it will go strong.
Each price range marked in the figure is a resistance level, mainly 1.55 dollars and 2.7 dollars. $MANTA

#山寨季何时到来？
Collection of high-quality copycat contracts (with sorting)

"It is true that most copycats should be returned to zero. It is rare to screen out high-scoring ones, so please look at them and cherish them."

1. Why do we make this table?

Because most copycats have poor liquidity, your counterparty is often a market maker/big player. When you trade contracts with high face value (leverage x margin), you will become a liquidity acquirer. This is why some contract players find that the pins are reversed when they are inserted into themselves.

(Attachment: In the future, there will be a large number of unlocked tokens that have not yet been fully circulated in the market. The scores will be lowered in this article, and these VC coins will be made into a new table separately.)

2. How do we judge high-quality copycats?

a. The first thing should be the liquidity, liquidity and daily transaction volume, whether the transaction volume is average, and whether they like to insert pins with large amplitude.

b. Judging from the trend and amplitude of the K-line (daring to judge the "trading" behavior), whether it is suitable for copycat contracts is also the focus and core content of this article. (If the amplitude is too large, the K-line score will be low for those who like to insert pins)

3. Why should we use this table?
We should focus on altcoins with more mature market making and more abundant funds, rather than altcoins that only sell coins. The former deserves the market's attention, while the latter is only suitable for them to return to zero (such as the coin #W).
a. You should choose altcoins with higher scores to do contract trading, rather than those with lower scores.
b. I will score each altcoin based on liquidity and K-line, and calculate a score for your reference based on the comprehensive score
(The score judgment is subjective and does not mean that I am optimistic about the future prospects of the token, DYOR)

4. I want to open an altcoin with poor liquidity, what should I do?
For altcoins with good liquidity such as BTC ETH SOL, your face value (leverage x margin) capacity is very high, and even orders with face value of over 10 million US dollars will not become the target of "dog dealers". Because if you want to affect the large fluctuations of BTC ETH SOL, you need a huge amount of funds.
Or do a simple calculation and open an order based on 0.1% of the daily contract trading volume of the copycat and 1% of the daily spot trading volume. This is almost the upper limit of what you can open without touching the interests of the counterparty.
$BNB