Soon Emergency Analysis (not a public safety food @binancezh
Keywords:
1. The project team is relatively wealthy, with about $40 million-$50 million in financing, and the TGE cost is about $1.5 million-$2 million (not precise).
2. This track has strong speculative value, and there is Jump's support.
3. The benefits brought by the institutional background come to an end here, and extra attention needs to be paid to K-line trends and market maker trading performance.
4. Financing debt is about $100 million, which can be simply understood as future selling pressure (this figure is not accurate).
5. Personally, I believe that this project does not have a high technical barrier, cautious value investment.
6. About $20 million in costs, expected to leverage at least $100 million in funds.
7. I don't think this project can maintain a unit price above $1 in the long term.
——————————————————————
From the current Binance Alpha perspective, about 14,964,000 tokens were airdropped.
From what I can see, a price of $0.5 corresponds to a $500 million FDV and a $100 million circulating market value.
The airdrop value is $7.5 million, and this selling pressure is something Soon has to bear; this ratio is about 1.5%. We are not discussing a relatively easy deal. In my opinion, the prospect of going live on Binance on that day is bleak.
Friends who want to know more can open a separate thread to discuss this matter.
In addition, mainstream exchanges like OKX, Bitget, Bithumb, Upbit, etc., have all confirmed PR, basically confirming that it can be listed on the spot. This aligns with the expectations I mentioned earlier about listing coins. However, I also think that with so many listings, to some extent, it might influence Binance's listing decisions. If this comes to pass, then everything will be worth it.
Roughly calculating the cost at about $15 million, based on the financing amount, it is expected to hold around $40M-$50M in financing funds. Based on the current FDV and valuation, there is currently double the space, meaning future selling pressure is around $100 million. This is actually the debt of financing. Based on the current financing background and listing strategy, this selling pressure does not pose a significant problem and is sufficient to digest.
——————————————————————
So how to operate?
I believe institutions will definitely lock in 3 times the profit, which is $900 million FDV. At this point, the unit price is $0.9, and near $0.6-$0.9 will gradually hedge (institutional hedging is often TWAP), while the bottom position for the pullback will be around $0.3, which is the position of $300 million FDV.
If you believe in the speculative value of the SVM track, $0.3-$0.4 is also a good position to layout. According to unofficial large OTC, $0.2 is the bottom price, and breaking below that means institutions are bearish.
In the range of $0.3-$0.9, I can't say specific operations, DYOR (hedging is a professional action, novices please do not imitate, new tokens have a high control rate, also pay attention to risks.
(Risk: It is expected that market makers will repeatedly test the market to seek liquidity gaps, so there is an urgent need for buying pressure to conduct tests. After opening contracts on various exchanges, this demand will be directly amplified.
——————————————————————
The track is currently unverified. From my investment research perspective, there is generally no technical barrier; the background is good, but the benefits brought by the background stop here.
The speculative value of this project is relatively high, while the landing value is relatively low. The background is also sufficient to drive retail participation, so there is no worry about counterparties.
Jump has hardly taken on new deals since the FTX incident. So Soon's background is quite profound, but still considering that market makers are there to provide liquidity for projects, this will be a good battleground for opportunists. (Jump's information comes from ai Yi, I believe this information is accurate.)
