新哥XBro

The new brother doesn't like to blow, but my old fans who follow me know that I have recently grasped Ethereum.

Fans who followed me a month earlier, during this wave of increase, can only say you are blessed $BTC
$ETH
#加密市场反弹

Core Trading Philosophy: Do not predict price movements, short at resistance, go long at support, and only engage in high-risk-reward scenarios within the system.

The market is unpredictable and can experience sudden surges or drops at any time, so the only thing we can do is manage risk well:

Before placing a trade, clearly consider stop-loss and take-profit levels, determining position size based on loss.

First calculate the risk, then discuss profit.$BTC
$ETH
#美国经济衰退预警

Btc整体还是震荡为主，都再等周四CPI出数据，上方113.4K，下方109.3K；
107.2K个人认为阶段性底部，预计会延小级别趋势线进行反弹；
支撑(多）：110.4K（激进），109.4K,108.1k
压力(空）：113.4K，117K #美联储降息预期 $BTC $ETH

The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 4220-4390, and a direction is expected soon;
Personally, I lean towards a rebound to the middle band of the 4-hour Bollinger Band around 4390;
Then a drop back to around 5060 before rising again, I will gradually position long orders below 4200;
Support (Long): 4250 (Aggressive), 4120, 4060
Resistance (Short): 4390 (Aggressive), 4490, 4660 $BTC $ETH

Is this Doge doing okay? $BTC
$ETH
$DOGE

4250 Ether Duo, went in again

The band is main #CryptoCircle# #Blockchain# $BTC
$ETH

- 9.11 (Thursday 21:30): US August inflation data release

- 9.18 (Thursday 2:00): FOMC meeting conclusion
(These two time windows are likely to initially drop and then rise)

9.11-18 is the most certain bottoming range this month; currently, miner selling pressure is low, and this month's news impact is significant, with results expected within the next one to two weeks.

Early to mid-September will see adjustments and fluctuations, during which the true bottom will be established; after mid-September, interest rate cuts will be a good start, and the US economic growth rate is okay with a high probability of a soft landing.

Historically, while September has seen adjustments, the extent is generally not large, and before the end of the month, there will be a recovery. There is no need for excessive worry; keep your chips in hand and patiently wait for the adjustments to finish. $BTC
$ETH
#美联储降息预期

$BTC
$ETH
1. September interest rate cut expectations

- Probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged: 0%
- Probability of interest rate cut: 100% (of which the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 88.3%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 11.7%)

2. Historical impact of interest rate cuts on BTC

1. August 2019: Decreased by 34% after the rate cut
2. March 2020: Two emergency rate cuts due to the pandemic, initially plummeting by 60% (312 event), then entering a bull market
3. September 2024: Increased by 70% after the rate cut
Summary: Historical interest rate cuts are not entirely beneficial for the cryptocurrency market, and blind optimism should be avoided⚠️

3. Historical impact of interest rate cuts on US stocks (classified by rate cut context)

1. Preemptive rate cuts (no significant economic recession but with potential risks)

- Purpose: Stimulate the economy and boost confidence
- Case: After rate cuts in September 1984 and July 1995, US stocks significantly rose within 6 months (due to strong economic fundamentals, rate cuts reduced financing costs, boosting investment and consumption)

2. Relief rate cuts (during economic recession or financial crisis)

- Purpose: Stabilize the market and economy
- Case: After rate cuts in January 2001 and September 2007, US stocks significantly adjusted within 6 months (due to economic recession leading to declining corporate profits, rising risks, and rate cuts failing to offset negative impacts)
Summary: Rate cuts without economic recession are stimulative and beneficial for US stocks; rate cuts during economic recession are bearish and can lead to declines in US stocks📉$BTC #美联储降息预期

After the non-farm payroll report, ETH remains trapped in the 4250-4500 oscillation range, in line with the 4-hour Bollinger Bands;
Forecast for the weekend is slight oscillation, with a sideways drop for cleanup, direction pending the CPI announcement next Thursday;
It is recommended to operate in waves and ensure risk protection. #非农就业数据来袭 $BTC
$ETH

4490 down, 4260 up, have you learned anything? $BTC
$ETH
#美联储降息预期

The earlier mentioned 113500 short, 4490 short. No problem, right? #美联储降息预期 $BTC
$ETH

Eth4490🈳就跟不用说了，最高4494$BTC
$ETH
#美联储降息预期

这个113.4🈳，不需要新哥过多的吹吧？$BTC
$ETH
#美联储降息预期 $

Employment data fell short of expectations, with Wall Street increasingly betting on a rate cut in September. This data can be interpreted in two ways:

It can be seen as a positive signal for the economy being weak, which is favorable for a rate cut,

or it can be interpreted as a negative signal indicating risks of economic recession.

The key is to observe the market performance: currently, the overall trend of the US stock market is strong, and the yield on the ten-year US Treasury bonds has also decreased, leading to a bullish judgment. Future observations can focus on the opening performance of the US stock market; if the US stocks rise, the trend is basically solid. $BTC
$ETH
#非农就业数据来袭

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate for August.

Currently, the market expects the non-farm payroll population for August to be 75,000, with the previous value at 73,000; the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.3%, with the previous value at 4.2%. Generally speaking, if the non-farm payroll population is lower than expected and the unemployment rate is higher than expected, it may indicate a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and a weakening labor market, which would further strengthen market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. It is not the case that the non-farm payroll population rises while the unemployment rate also increases; typically, a decline in the employment population and a rise in the unemployment rate are more conducive to prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

The impact of ETH on Nasdaq policies has led to a weaker Ethereum, pay attention to the impact of non-farm data in the evening;
However, the upward trend of Ethereum remains unchanged, see if the data can retrace to the bottom support line to take a long position;
Support (long): 4260, 4200, 4150 (and the lower trend line)
Resistance (short): 4490, 4660 #美联储降息预期 $BTC
$ETH

Btc continues to fluctuate in the short term, but from a long-term perspective, the bottom has been confirmed at 107.2K. It is currently in the process of a dealer wash, with prices oscillating within the 4H Bollinger Bands;
Tonight's non-farm data is quite important, as it relates to the interest rate cut tone for September. If there is a negative wash and decline, low positions can actively layout long orders;
Additionally, Btc is about to form an inverted head and shoulders pattern. If it stabilizes above 111.8K, it could rise to 113.5K-114.5K
Support (Long): 109.2K (aggressive), 108.3K, 107.2K
Resistance (Short): 118.5K (aggressive), 113.4K-114.5K #非农就业数据来袭 $BTC $ETH

Sun Ge, are you not going to explain? [Crying][Crying][Crying]#Coin Circle##Blockchain# ​​​

Today, the Nasdaq's requirement for shareholders to approve the issuance of new shares for purchasing cryptocurrency has led to a slowdown in the company's transition towards cryptocurrency; non-compliance with the company or being delisted/suspended from trading, Nasdaq has become the main rule enforcer for crypto-related stocks (after federal regulators withdrew).
The new regulations have triggered a decline in BTC, ETH, and crypto strategic reserve-related US stocks, but the overall US stock market rose today.

The market may continue until news is released tomorrow. If the decline persists today and tomorrow, the drop caused by negative news may be limited; if the news is positive, there could be significant rebound potential (refer to the previous market movements after Powell's speech). $BTC
$ETH
#上市公司囤币潮