$BTC
1. September interest rate cut expectations
- Probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged: 0%
- Probability of interest rate cut: 100% (of which the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 88.3%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 11.7%)
2. Historical impact of interest rate cuts on BTC
1. August 2019: Decreased by 34% after the rate cut
2. March 2020: Two emergency rate cuts due to the pandemic, initially plummeting by 60% (312 event), then entering a bull market
3. September 2024: Increased by 70% after the rate cut
Summary: Historical interest rate cuts are not entirely beneficial for the cryptocurrency market, and blind optimism should be avoided⚠️
3. Historical impact of interest rate cuts on US stocks (classified by rate cut context)
1. Preemptive rate cuts (no significant economic recession but with potential risks)
- Purpose: Stimulate the economy and boost confidence
- Case: After rate cuts in September 1984 and July 1995, US stocks significantly rose within 6 months (due to strong economic fundamentals, rate cuts reduced financing costs, boosting investment and consumption)
2. Relief rate cuts (during economic recession or financial crisis)
- Purpose: Stabilize the market and economy
- Case: After rate cuts in January 2001 and September 2007, US stocks significantly adjusted within 6 months (due to economic recession leading to declining corporate profits, rising risks, and rate cuts failing to offset negative impacts)
Summary: Rate cuts without economic recession are stimulative and beneficial for US stocks; rate cuts during economic recession are bearish and can lead to declines in US stocks📉$BTC #美联储降息预期
