圈论

Today is August 23. I have seen the statements of the Fed officials. In fact, after carefully reading the statements of each official, I can see that they basically maintain an observational attitude towards the future situation. This point may be relatively different from the current hype of the Fed. In particular, the three influential Fed officials have a prudent decision on the issues of inflation and employment. The current employment indicators in the United States, even if the unemployment rate is 4.1 to 4.3, compared with the historical low of 5%, there is still a lot of room for regulation. The lowest point of the unemployment rate in the United States should be the reason why the Fed's interest rate cut is not symmetrical. Compared with the US inflation of 2.9%, although it is on the 2% line, the gap between 2% and 2.9 is well known by the Fed officials. The possibility of the US inflation reversal in the future should be the reason why the Fed's interest rate cut is not reasonable. Therefore, compared with the current hype of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is an emotional buy reality. However, the actual data is completely contrary to the basic logic and volatility of the entire US economy, including the US PMI index, the summer vacation mode and the factory maintenance cycle. The PMI index has declined, but the US service industry index has remained relatively stable and upward. Retail data and consumer fund index are both parameters of the US interest rate hike. So relatively speaking, selling expectations has become a market blunder. The hype of expectations does not represent the future and reality, and the actual data tells us that the future reality may be completely opposite to expectations. What do you think? #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $SOL

According to the latest news on the 22nd, the United States intends to raise interest rates from 5.25% to 5.5%, which has caused a stir around the world. Everyone originally thought that a rate cut would bring some benefits, but it turned out to be a 180-degree turn. It feels like getting off a roller coaster, which is very exciting. The interest rate hike by the United States is really a big challenge for the global economy. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ #美联储加息 $BTC
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The US Federal Reserve has been talking about cutting interest rates for a long time, but there has been no actual cut so far. Yes, it is already August, the second half of the year. Do you think it can still be cut this year? Actually, there are two questions. One is whether the Fed can still cut interest rates this year. The other question is whether the Fed has already cut interest rates. Is it a cut or not? This may be a big problem. On the surface, the Fed has not cut interest rates so far. Whether it can cut interest rates this year, I say it is uncertain. Why do I say that? Because US Treasury bonds are not selling well. If you lower its interest rate, it will be even harder to sell. There is another big problem. If it cuts interest rates, the US dollar index may fall. What should we do? Ah, this is a very difficult decision. So now the US is doing something. What is it doing? First, the issuance of US Treasury bonds is decreasing in long-term bonds and increasing in short-term bonds. Why? Because the market demand for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds is decreasing, we can't be optimistic about you in the long term. Now it's not right, so we have to make do with short-term ones. Although the return is a little lower, the risk is a little lower. So now there is such a problem, that is, if the interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds is further reduced, the Treasury bonds will not be sold, so they have this worry. Therefore, there is such a question now, saying whether I can cut interest rates immediately, then I have to use various reasons to say that I can't cut interest rates yet, but what is this actually? This is a risk premium debt product provided by the U.S. government for its Treasury bonds. The higher the risk, the higher the corresponding interest rate. In the past, the U.S. dollar was the safest bond, but now it is not safe, its risk has increased, and you have to increase the interest you pay to others. This is called risk premium. High risk is accompanied by high return. That's right. So it is because of the existence of this risk premium that he dare not blindly cut interest rates. So what does he do? He uses this trick to force other economies to cut interest rates, such as forcing the euro to cut interest rates. What is he actually doing in this way?That is, you have to cut interest rates first, leaving me room to cut interest rates. Why? Because if you cut interest rates, I will also cut interest rates, and my US dollar index will not fall. Do you understand this principle? The lower the interest rate, the more likely its exchange rate will depreciate. This is relative. Now there are 6 currencies in the US dollar index. If these 6 currencies all cut interest rates, then my dollar will be strong. I have not cut interest rates. If you all cut interest rates by a relatively large margin, and I cut a little, the US dollar index will not fall too much. This is how it is maintained. The credit of the US dollar maintains the hegemony of the US dollar, so that more people will not abandon the US dollar. Therefore, today the United States maintains high interest rates, in fact, more consideration is the hegemony of the US dollar, not inflation, nor employment, so it can falsify employment data. The economy is not bad, very good, our employment is very strong, so we don’t need to cut interest rates. In fact, today’s international struggle is the focus of the spearhead. In fact, it is the US dollar. Because of this focus, the international chaos cannot stop. Only in this way can they drive more capital to the United States and maintain it. The strength of the US dollar, so we need to look more, deeper, and farther. So you think it will not fall this year, right? It may fall, but it depends on whether other countries cooperate. Among the six currency countries in the US dollar index, the European euro accounts for 56%, nearly 57%, and then the Japanese yen ranks second, the British pound ranks third, and there are other currencies such as Sweden, Swiss franc, whether they cut interest rates, and how much they cut interest rates, and then we can decide whether the US dollar will cut interest rates. Understand this principle. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ #美国7月PPI低于预期 $BTC $ETH $BNB

On August 22 this year, the U.S. Department of Labor revised the decline in U.S. jobs and employment, which should have attracted the attention of the market. The timing and conditions of this downward adjustment may just be in line with the speculation of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, including the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Governors Meeting in the United States. The speech of Fed Chairman Powell may have provided an important reference for his dovish tone of interest rate cuts. In comparison, whether the number of U.S. jobs is bad or stable is the focus of discussion. In comparison, the downward adjustment of U.S. jobs and employment does not mean that U.S. employment has deteriorated, and the increase in the U.S. unemployment rate from 4.1 to 4.3 does not mean that there is a problem with the U.S. unemployment rate. In comparison, the U.S. unemployment rate is at a historical low level. This shows that the stability of the U.S. labor market still supports the Fed's interest rate hike, rather than the Fed's interest rate cut. Therefore, the U.S. macroeconomic policy management, first, has a plan, second, has a strategy, and third, the timing and conditions are very clever. The current hype about the U.S. employment problem and the U.S. economic recession are to cater to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar may be an important parameter for whether the Fed will raise interest rates or not. It is a bit too early to talk about the US recession, because all expectations now point to a recession next year, not this year, and the probability of a recession next year is now within 30%. So the hype of poor employment and US recession has very clear goals and directions. First, stimulate the Federal Reserve. Second, lower interest rates and push the dollar to depreciate. This strategy and method is definitely worth paying attention to. Don't rush into the future policy orientation of the Federal Reserve. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 $BTC $ETH $BNB

The market has once again helped the Fed raise expectations for rate cuts, so it can manage expectations again. It only needs to make some fine-tuning of the data and the interpretation of the data at the end, and it can still keep the interest rate unchanged. Now everyone knows that this is not a data problem at all. It is just that it is not thought about. There are many reasons. Moreover, it has been delayed until now. It is no longer a question of whether it will decline or not. Once it cuts interest rates, the whole world will breathe a sigh of relief, including us, ushering in the spring. However, its US bonds, US stocks and the US dollar will lose support, right? You may be the only thing it can do is to cut interest rates while launching a large-scale war and turmoil, hoping that it can force capital to stay in the United States. So, on the day of the rate cut, it is possible that Americans will start to freak out. What will happen if it does not cut interest rates? We can also try to deduce it. The current logic is basically clear. We can divide it into three frameworks to evaluate what may happen. The first is Europe. The second is his allies outside Europe, such as Japan, South Korea and Australia. The third is himself. Let's see, if he continues to maintain high interest rates for as long as possible like now, his allies will fall one by one before him. First of all, Europe may go to civil strife or division. The rise of extreme right-wing forces may accelerate the sweep of the whole of Europe. Your government can be controlled by the Americans, but the people can't stand it. So the most direct thing is civil strife. It may squeeze out the influence of the United States in Europe. But, no matter what, the Americans will not stop sucking blood from Europe. We may see that the whole of Europe is unprecedented. The speed of decline can be called the zombification of Europe. Then, Japan and South Korea may be different from old Europe. It is unlikely to explode in silence and can only die slowly. It is the same as Japan and South Korea in the past 30 years. The people are gradually perverted, and the society is further repressed and can't make any sound. You see, the Night Parade of a Hundred Demons in 2021, right? It's that feeling. Then, the Americans themselves, they only need to continue to shrink their tentacles, and they can survive for a long time by sucking their allies, as long as their internal interests are well coordinated and they don't fall apart.The more it shrinks, the safer it is, the smaller its influence is, and the longer its life span is. So, everyone, if Americans really want to make a soft landing, the Pacific Ocean may eventually become silent, because it will drain all its fulcrums on the Eurasian and African continents. It originally relied on these fulcrums to control the world and generate profits for it. However, these fulcrums can no longer generate income, and only costs are left. So from a rational point of view, it will drain the last bit of income, and then give up these tentacles, right? Its global interests shrink, and its influence interests also shrink. Ultimately, it retreats to the North American continent. In this process, we may find that closing the country to the outside world is in the interests of Americans at this stage. Why? Because first of all, we must realize that North America is self-sufficient, that is, it can survive without maintaining a basic openness. Moreover, it has to engage in a continuous confrontation, and the fulcrum on the Eurasian continent has shrunk on a large scale, and it has no strategic significance. Therefore, an open policy will not bring it any benefit, but will become a drag. Look at Trump's policy. The direction is actually this trend. Continuous closure and contraction must be in line with its basic interests. Therefore, the American continent may return in the end. Its destiny is to become a truly isolated island overseas, a continent isolated from the world. The starting point is the end point. The globe determines the fate. Therefore, Americans now have fewer and fewer options. Either they fight a big war and gamble big, or they can only continue to print money and then slowly retreat. Now, whether it is a rate cut or a rate hike, the United States is not doing well. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $SOL

The Fed's meeting resolution is completely consistent with the market's expectations. The Fed continues to maintain interest rates at 5.25% and 5.5%, which may be mainly because the US dollar market has become an obstacle or even a risk factor for the Fed's interest rate hike. Its parameters are closely related to the inflation data released by the US Department of Labor, because inflation is a downward rhythm, which is more conducive to the Fed's maintaining a stable interest rate. Powell's attitude and the Fed's internal resolution have also changed, because Powell clearly stated that among the 19 Fed officials who may cut interest rates once this year, 2/3 may still insist on keeping the interest rate high. So I think that the Fed's interest rate cut may be hype, and the probability of raising interest rates exists, but there is also 1/3 of the US dollar that may also advocate one or two interest rate cuts, and this change is related to the US dollar market, because the US dollar is high, 101 at the beginning of the year, and now 104, so the US dollar will depreciate. Hype about the Fed's interest rate cut should be the main market in the future, and the benchmark for public opinion hype and market trends. The Federal Reserve will continue to insist on its role of raising interest rates this year, and inflation may be an important reference. In the future, the rise in oil prices and precious metal commodity prices are all possible potential inflation increases. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $SOL

是否也认为美国的降息周期即将来临，而利率就会就此一路下降呢？不管你怎么想，反正现在华尔街的共识就是未来一年内利率至少会下滑2%，两年就回到曾经的低利率时代。市场上多数人也确实都是这样认为的，倒也不难理解，毕竟美联储两年前才刚刚把利率一口气从0%加到了5.5%，那之后怎么不得多降点儿，至少回到疫情前不是？然而正是这个所有人都觉得再正常不过的事儿，其实存在着非常大的变数。历史上有这么一段时间，和如今的美股非常的相似，当时美联储也是因为通胀而快速加息，而在加息之后也神奇般的实现了软着陆，并且成功控制住了通胀，而这段历史就是9596年的美股市场，当时的美联储在大幅加息之后，在通胀已经得到了控制之后，在这之后的三年时间，竟然仅仅降了三次息，总共75个基点。而再往后。的变化，竟然还是加息，那这究竟是为什么呢？是否意味着我们现在降息也存在着巨大的变数呢？今天这期视频就让我们一起回到九五九六年的美股市场，去看看当年的降息周期中具体都发生了什么。为什么美联储最终会出乎所有人的意料停止了降息，当年的市场又是如何应对的呢？这期视频可以说是我最近研究过最具有颠覆性的一期视频了，它不仅对于咱投资者至关重要，也和

If we cut interest rates in a hurry, what will happen if inflation rebounds? Which central bank dares to play with interest rates? The Fed cannot cut interest rates in September. There are two main indicators for cutting interest rates: inflation down and unemployment up. The current situation is that the inflation in July is 2.9, which is far from the target of 2%. The Fed has no motivation to cut interest rates with this inflation, and the unemployment rate in July is 4.3%, which is not high. Under this data, the Fed has no pressure to cut interest rates. Now only the economic data in August is a variable, so let's assume that the data in August is relatively optimistic and see if the Fed is likely to cut interest rates under this data. Assuming that inflation in August drops to 2.5 and the unemployment rate rises to 4.5, think about it, will the Fed cut interest rates when it sees this data? It's impossible. It takes a long time before the interest rate cut. The inflation rate steadily declines and approaches 2%, and the unemployment rate gradually rises to a higher level. Only when the two data form a stable trend will the interest rate cut be initiated. The interest rate policy must have at least stability. If we cut interest rates in a hurry, what will happen if inflation rebounds? Which central bank dares to cut interest rates. The Fed has no reason to cut interest rates in a hurry. The current economic data is very good, and the unemployment rate is not high. What about this forecasting tool, that Sam's rule, Goldman Sachs said it, and Morgan said it, aren't you tired? Let's not talk about their starting points, just talking about the forecast level. I think everyone should have their own independent judgment in the face of such major issues. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $SOL

Now, the topic of the Fed's interest rate cut is frequently mentioned in various fields. Through the meeting of the China-US Financial Working Group on August 20, we can see that the possibility of the Fed's US dollar interest rate hike exists, because the market is now speculating on the extreme nature of the Fed's interest rate cut, and compared with the fundamentals of the US economy and US companies, it may not be suitable for the Fed's interest rate cut. Compared with this financial meeting between my country and the United States, it may be compared with its counterparts, which should arouse our high attention. On the one hand, my country's central bank is the one who manages foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves and is the maker of monetary policy, while the other party is not the Federal Reserve and the US central bank, but the US Treasury Department. The US Treasury Department is mainly responsible for raising funds, taxation and issuing bonds, and management should be the main responsibility of the US Treasury Department. It can be clearly revealed here that the issuance of US treasury bonds requires foreigners to actively purchase them, and as the functional department of foreign exchange management, the significance of this consultation of the People's Bank of my country is very important to the intention of the United States. Compared with the issuance of treasury bonds, there has been an increase in holdings. The latest data in June has risen by 3%, and the end of September is the fiscal year of the United States. This phenomenon tells us that the Fed's interest rate cut in September may be just speculation. The current level of the US dollar exchange rate has reached 101 points, so in the future period, how the US dollar will trend, whether the Fed will maintain interest rates or raise interest rates, is very important. The interest rate cut that is a hot topic in the market may be a hype strategy of the Fed. I boldly guess that it may actually be for the purpose of raising interest rates, and the Fed's interest rate cut is just a bluff. $BTC $ETH $SOL #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美国7月PPI低于预期

Have you noticed that with the entry of the US capital market, the intervention of the US government, the Mentougou incident, etc., the currency seems to have changed?
1. The entry of BTC+ETH spot ETF and Wall Street capital means that not only the ability to screen varieties and sectors is required, but also the ability to conduct financial transactions. The previous strategy of making money by simply holding on to something has been eliminated.
2. The bull market rule of "Federal Reserve easing + four-year cycle of Circle B" is gradually being diluted and may even be broken. The situation of the army is ever-changing, and the shape of water is ever-changing. The only constant in this market is "change."
3. Copycat coins are issued excessively, and the number of people and money to take them in cannot keep up with the coins and projects that are issuing them, which has drained the liquidity in the hands of the "leeks". In the future, only a very small number of copycat coins can outperform the mainstream coins. For the vast majority of copycat coins, their peak is when they are listed, and they complete their life mission in a few months. After that, they will gradually return to zero. Even if the price of Bitcoin rises to 100,000 or 200,000 US dollars, the price of junk coins will still be at the foot of the mountain, and there will never be a bull market.