The market has once again helped the Fed raise expectations for rate cuts, so it can manage expectations again. It only needs to make some fine-tuning of the data and the interpretation of the data at the end, and it can still keep the interest rate unchanged. Now everyone knows that this is not a data problem at all. It is just that it is not thought about. There are many reasons. Moreover, it has been delayed until now. It is no longer a question of whether it will decline or not. Once it cuts interest rates, the whole world will breathe a sigh of relief, including us, ushering in the spring. However, its US bonds, US stocks and the US dollar will lose support, right? You may be the only thing it can do is to cut interest rates while launching a large-scale war and turmoil, hoping that it can force capital to stay in the United States. So, on the day of the rate cut, it is possible that Americans will start to freak out. What will happen if it does not cut interest rates? We can also try to deduce it. The current logic is basically clear. We can divide it into three frameworks to evaluate what may happen. The first is Europe. The second is his allies outside Europe, such as Japan, South Korea and Australia. The third is himself. Let's see, if he continues to maintain high interest rates for as long as possible like now, his allies will fall one by one before him. First of all, Europe may go to civil strife or division. The rise of extreme right-wing forces may accelerate the sweep of the whole of Europe. Your government can be controlled by the Americans, but the people can't stand it. So the most direct thing is civil strife. It may squeeze out the influence of the United States in Europe. But, no matter what, the Americans will not stop sucking blood from Europe. We may see that the whole of Europe is unprecedented. The speed of decline can be called the zombification of Europe. Then, Japan and South Korea may be different from old Europe. It is unlikely to explode in silence and can only die slowly. It is the same as Japan and South Korea in the past 30 years. The people are gradually perverted, and the society is further repressed and can't make any sound. You see, the Night Parade of a Hundred Demons in 2021, right? It's that feeling. Then, the Americans themselves, they only need to continue to shrink their tentacles, and they can survive for a long time by sucking their allies, as long as their internal interests are well coordinated and they don't fall apart.The more it shrinks, the safer it is, the smaller its influence is, and the longer its life span is. So, everyone, if Americans really want to make a soft landing, the Pacific Ocean may eventually become silent, because it will drain all its fulcrums on the Eurasian and African continents. It originally relied on these fulcrums to control the world and generate profits for it. However, these fulcrums can no longer generate income, and only costs are left. So from a rational point of view, it will drain the last bit of income, and then give up these tentacles, right? Its global interests shrink, and its influence interests also shrink. Ultimately, it retreats to the North American continent. In this process, we may find that closing the country to the outside world is in the interests of Americans at this stage. Why? Because first of all, we must realize that North America is self-sufficient, that is, it can survive without maintaining a basic openness. Moreover, it has to engage in a continuous confrontation, and the fulcrum on the Eurasian continent has shrunk on a large scale, and it has no strategic significance. Therefore, an open policy will not bring it any benefit, but will become a drag. Look at Trump's policy. The direction is actually this trend. Continuous closure and contraction must be in line with its basic interests. Therefore, the American continent may return in the end. Its destiny is to become a truly isolated island overseas, a continent isolated from the world. The starting point is the end point. The globe determines the fate. Therefore, Americans now have fewer and fewer options. Either they fight a big war and gamble big, or they can only continue to print money and then slowly retreat. Now, whether it is a rate cut or a rate hike, the United States is not doing well. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $SOL