If we cut interest rates in a hurry, what will happen if inflation rebounds? Which central bank dares to play with interest rates? The Fed cannot cut interest rates in September. There are two main indicators for cutting interest rates: inflation down and unemployment up. The current situation is that the inflation in July is 2.9, which is far from the target of 2%. The Fed has no motivation to cut interest rates with this inflation, and the unemployment rate in July is 4.3%, which is not high. Under this data, the Fed has no pressure to cut interest rates. Now only the economic data in August is a variable, so let's assume that the data in August is relatively optimistic and see if the Fed is likely to cut interest rates under this data. Assuming that inflation in August drops to 2.5 and the unemployment rate rises to 4.5, think about it, will the Fed cut interest rates when it sees this data? It's impossible. It takes a long time before the interest rate cut. The inflation rate steadily declines and approaches 2%, and the unemployment rate gradually rises to a higher level. Only when the two data form a stable trend will the interest rate cut be initiated. The interest rate policy must have at least stability. If we cut interest rates in a hurry, what will happen if inflation rebounds? Which central bank dares to cut interest rates. The Fed has no reason to cut interest rates in a hurry. The current economic data is very good, and the unemployment rate is not high. What about this forecasting tool, that Sam's rule, Goldman Sachs said it, and Morgan said it, aren't you tired? Let's not talk about their starting points, just talking about the forecast level. I think everyone should have their own independent judgment in the face of such major issues. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH $SOL
