◾️6.6 Friday Evening ETH Market Analysis The recent rebound of ETH is weak and feeble, with visible pressure above. It has just touched the lower support line and barely bounced a couple of times. A closer look at the market shows that although the K-line trend seems to be rising, it is actually just a false signal. The short-term moving averages are consistently turning downwards, clearly indicating that there is strong resistance above. In simple terms, this rebound is merely a 'break' during a downward trend; the market is just taking a breather from a technical adjustment, and it does not constitute a trend reversal. If one mistakenly treats this adjustment as a reversal and blindly chases after the rise, it is highly likely to get stuck at high positions.
Operation Suggestion: ETH: Enter around 2470-2530, with a first target of 2380-2300
In the past, market fluctuations relied entirely on the big shots' words. Now, Musk and Trump are directly putting on a double act! One plays the bad cop, the other the good cop, and they are arguing fiercely, leaving the onlookers excited. As a result, Tesla, the US stock market, and Bitcoin all plummeted.
They are essentially two crickets on the same string; how could they really fall out? On the surface, they argue incessantly, but in reality, they have already divided the profits. Musk's crazy verbal attacks are merely putting pressure on Trump; it's all psychological warfare. Ultimately, it's the verbal battles that stir market emotions, while the capital quietly profits.
Last night, Bitcoin indeed fell sharply, but someone immediately shouted "the market is about to crash"—that's just too impatient! When the market rose 30,000 points, they quietly made money; now that it has dropped 5,000 points, they panic uncontrollably. This mindset is truly not suitable for surviving in the market.
◾️6.6 Friday Early Morning BTC/ETH Analysis From the current market perspective, Bitcoin continues to decline, maintaining a corrective trend with fluctuations. The short-term bulls and bears are stuck in a stalemate, with poor directional continuity, presenting a choppy consolidation pattern. The daily chart seems to have returned to the starting point, but the smaller cycles are showing signs of a downward channel. The current level is crucial, and it is recommended to focus on pullbacks for buying, while patiently waiting for stabilization. If a valid downward break occurs and holds, one can consider shorting, but it is essential to keep a close eye on key support levels and be wary of false breakouts.
Operational Suggestions: BTC: Buy near 103800-104300 Target: 106000-105500
◾️6.5 Thursday Early Morning BTC/ETH Analysis From the current market perspective, yesterday's daytime prices showed a bullish trend; however, the ADP employment data released in the evening was below expectations, which led to a significant decline in U.S. stocks after opening lower. Although there was some rebound afterward, the bullish momentum was clearly insufficient, (Aunt) although it briefly made a rebound of 2678 points to test the upper resistance, it failed to break through successfully and quickly showed a downward trend. In the short term, prices are still operating within the original range, and it is expected that there is a high probability of maintaining a volatile pattern in the future.
From the four-hour view, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed and flattened again, encountering strong resistance after touching the upper middle line. Considering the recent frequent market news, market sentiment is relatively cautious. Overall judgment suggests that future operations should focus on a high strategy, paying attention to the breakthrough situation of the upper resistance level. If it cannot break through effectively, the possibility of a volatile downward trend is quite large.
Operation Suggestions: BTC: Around 106000-105500 range Target: Around 103300 - 103800
ETH: Around 2680-2650 range Target: Around 2590-2560
Key Points to Watch in Trading - Analysis of Bai Ni's Core Logic I am Bai Ni, and I want to share some key points in trading with you all ‼️ First, when the market is stable, a profit of 30 to 50 points with a small position and 500 to 1000 points with a larger position is an ideal range that most people can accept. When the momentum trend weakens within a 15-minute timeframe, don’t hesitate; decisively take profit based on the market conditions. Protecting your hard-earned profits is the most important principle!
‼️ Secondly, let me emphasize my trading style. I do not engage in long-term or medium-term trading, but that doesn’t mean that the target price will be reached immediately after a signal. If the market is favorable, it may be achieved within 24 hours, and in more complex cases, it's normal for it to take 2 to 3 trading days. If you can't even be patient for this, it's time to reflect on whether you are being too impatient!
For friends who have suffered total liquidation, think carefully about whether you have no control over trading risks? If you don’t even understand the reasons for your losses, blind trading will only lead you deeper into trouble. I insist on making calls before the market opens, and I will never call after the fact! Follow me, like me, and I will do my best to help you seize every profit opportunity!
6.3 Tuesday Evening BTC/ETH Analysis From the current market perspective, the U.S. stock market's after-hours trading yesterday showed relatively limited fluctuations, overall presenting a consolidation trend within a bottom support range. There was a rebound signal during the early morning hours, and today's early session saw prices rise and successfully recover some lost ground. If the current market cannot effectively break through the key resistance level, it is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern in the future. The suggested trading strategy is to adopt a buy low, sell high approach within the support level of 103000 and the resistance level of 106500. From the four-hour candlestick chart, the price has tested the upper resistance multiple times but has faced pressure and retreated each time. Currently, the short-term key resistance level is around the high point of 107000. If this level can be effectively broken, it may open up upward space; conversely, if there is no breakthrough, a wide-ranging fluctuating market is likely to continue. The support level below is concentrated around the lower range of 103000, and the suggested trading strategy is to focus on short positions. Trading Suggestions: BTC: Around 106000-105500 Target: Around 103300-103800
◾️6.3 Afternoon SOL Trend Analysis In the morning session, Solana (SOL) continued its upward momentum, quickly rising to the 162 level. Although it faced resistance at the daily mid-line around 168 and could not break through, the current short-term upward momentum remains strong and has not been fully exhausted. Based on the intraday market conditions, Solana still has upward potential.
Operation Suggestion: Watch for 156 level first, then look for a break at 162 and aim for 168.
◾️6.3 Tuesday Big Cake Midday Market Analysis From a 4-hour perspective, it shows characteristics of 'slow decline and rapid rise.' After a quick drop, it rebounded strongly, with the medium bullish candlestick completely recovering lost ground and stabilizing at 106000. The moving average system and KD indicator have formed a golden cross resonance at a low level, releasing a clear signal of stopping the decline and stabilizing.
The current market is mainly focused on rebound corrections, maintaining an overall oscillating pattern. The intraday trend leans towards an upward movement, but the upper space needs to be judged in conjunction with the intraday volume. It is recommended to use yesterday's low point as defensive support and adopt a buying strategy on dips, focusing on capturing short-term rebound opportunities.
Operational Suggestions: 104500-105000 range Buy 106500-106000 range Target
◾️6.3 Ramen Price Trend Analysis Today's ramen price touched the 2650 daily line, and after hitting a key resistance level, a pullback occurred. However, this is not a signal of exhaustion in upward momentum. This pullback is essentially a technical correction of the rapid rise in the early session. Once the adjustment is complete, the upward trend is expected to continue. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to enter at lower levels after the pullback stabilizes, capturing subsequent upward potential.
Operational Suggestion: Ramen around 2550, first target 2650.
◾️6.2 The current market shows obvious signs of correlation with the US stock market opening. Although the US stock market opened slightly lower in the early session, it quickly rebounded, showing a trend of 'opening low and rising high'. As a result, market sentiment has improved, and the previously pressured trend has turned a corner. This trend's continuation requires caution for those holding positions.
Is James Wynn going to explode as well? James Wynn just publicly announced his exit from contract trading, and just three hours later, he surprisingly reversed and placed a long order worth 100 million USD, with an opening price of 105890.3 and a liquidation price of 104151.33, ‼️‼️Latest liquidation price 103637‼️‼️ This dramatic turnaround once again confirms: once involved in contracts, it is difficult to truly withdraw. Could it be that his trading movements have been keenly observed by the 'dog fund'?
◾️For those holding Aunty's K-line, it is advisable to lock in most of the profits in a timely manner. For K-line traders, if a bottom divergence appears with a spike in 15 minutes, you can try a small position, but avoid heavy positions. Currently, the spike has not broken below 2468, and the pattern is not ideal, so it’s better to wait for a lower price point as planned. At the moment, you can maintain a small position in the remaining layout and continue to observe.
◾️6.2 A brief withdrawal is to embark more clearly! Press the "pause button" for two days, recharge, and officially return tomorrow!
Next, the goals are clear: ✅ Keep a close eye on the K-line dynamics, capturing subtle market fluctuations ✅ Deep dive into industry information, dissecting the underlying logic of projects ✅ Adjust the combat rhythm, balancing positions and mindset ✅ Respect market risks, strictly adhere to profit-taking and stop-loss discipline
The crypto world never stops, starting again with a zero-based mindset—whether in fluctuating markets or trending opportunities, we will respond with a more rational perspective. Starting tomorrow, continue to sail forward in the digital wave, exploring new opportunities together with comrades! # #交易日志
◾️SOL has fallen back to the key support level of 150, and the market shows strong support at this level, as it has tested it multiple times without effectively breaking below. This area is both a previous low point of fluctuation and coincides with the key Fibonacci retracement support level, making the possibility of stabilization and rebound high. It is recommended to position near 150, with the first target being the resistance level at 158. If this level is successfully broken, there is hope for further upward movement towards the 168 mark.
◾️BTC Monthly Closing Key Analysis: 1. Trend structure continues, BTC monthly line successfully closed at historical highs, forming an upward trend with progressively higher highs and lows; currently, no signs of a trend weakening have emerged. However, potential market reversal signs should be monitored.
2. Concerns about volume-price divergence, this month's trading volume has continued to decline, resembling the volume-price divergence pattern that appeared at the top of the bull market in early 2021-2022. The current key support level for this bull market is around the previous high of 74k, which is crucial for maintaining the upward trend.
3. Interpretation of volume-price relationship, under the overall bullish trend, the trading volume is shrinking while prices are making slight new highs, indicating lower selling pressure in the market, but also reflecting that market demand is weakening. If a significant price increase occurs with reduced volume, it may suggest anomalies on the supply side.
4. Bear market risk assessment, compared to the dual top divergence of weekly and monthly lines seen at the previous bull market peak, this round only shows a weekly level top divergence. Therefore, even if the market enters a bear market, the adjustment may be smaller than in the previous cycle and is more likely to be a technical correction.
5. Multi-cycle resonance effects, the convergence of multiple factors such as halving cycle, monetary policy cycle, geopolitical cycle, and BTC asset allocation cycle will make future market trends more complex and variable; attention should be paid to the synergistic effects of each cycle.
6. Evolution of market structure, BTC's dominant position in the bull market may turn into a disadvantage during the bear market. As the crypto market develops, more and more emerging assets that are independent of BTC's price movements will emerge, reshaping the market landscape.