#山寨季何时到来？
After dividing the altcoin market value/BTC market value, the different intervals are divided into three parts: altcoin recession period, altcoin boom period, and altcoin delivery area, and the BTC price is compared.
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The bar chart represents #山寨币指数 , which is used to show the strength of the altcoin market.
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The line chart is the BTC price trend, showing the market performance of Bitcoin.
1.#AltcoinSeason Prelude The altcoin index is a leading indicator of the BTC peak
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The altcoin index entering a boom period is usually associated with the top of the BTC market, which is a signal of market risk.
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As BTC prices fall back, the altcoin market will also be affected accordingly, especially in the falling or oscillating cycle
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Therefore, when the market value share of altcoins touches the prosperity line during the second rise of BTC, it is a sign that the altcoin season has begun
2. Signals of the peak of the altcoin season (all must be met)
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The market value share of altcoins is in the prosperity zone, and BTC has bottomed out
BTC forward delivery contracts are more than 10% premium to the current period
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The US stock market has peaked
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RSI over 70 usually indicates overbought and may pull back; over 80 is a strong top signal#RSIdivergence (price hits a new high while RSI No new high) is one of the top signals
3. Judging the garbage time of the altcoin based on the volatility (blue area)
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Based on the low volatility range of BTC at the bottom, filter out the overestimation of the proportion of altcoins winning by volume due to the decline in BTC market value
When the low-volatility bottom appears, the strategy of holding a large number of altcoins should be decisively abandoned
