雪崩研究

Currently, #USDC is slightly off-peg, and after reviewing, there are no negative news factors.

Combined with the recent surge in #BTC and #ETH OI over the past 24 hours, #ETH even reached a historical high. It is speculated that the main reason is the surge in demand for #USDT in the futures market.

This also means that the current strong rebound is mainly driven by the futures market, with OI and prices rising together.

Waking up this morning, the OI of $BTC faced a liquidation, and the shorts were cleared out. However, the OI of $ETH remains at a historical high with no signs of retreat.

After experiencing a series of risk releases in the external market, retail investors in the crypto market are tightening their grips and turning conservative.

The market knows what retail investors are thinking, and has taken advantage of the weekend to compress the volatility of $BTC to an extremely low level.

A prolonged period of low volatility will inevitably lead to higher leverage ratios. In the past two days, we have already seen top traders making a few hundred dollars from volatility, and retail investors are following suit.

Once the players in the market develop a group habit, severe volatility will soon arrive.

Although $BTC failed to break through at the 8w5 position, it cannot yet be considered a failure of the trend line that has lasted for 4 months; it can still be regarded as the pullback phase after the breakthrough.

This position is left for top traders to compete; I choose to continue waiting.

5 years ago, during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, this global public health event led to a sudden halt in economic activity and a halt in U.S. stock trading. The Federal Reserve had to initiate quantitative easing to rescue the market, which included the massive issuance of 5-year Treasury bonds by the U.S. government.

5 years later, a total of $9.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury debt will mature, of which $6.5 trillion will mature in June, accounting for more than 2/3 of the total debt maturity for the year.

Trump chose this time to launch a global trade war, granting a 90-day grace period, likely using tariffs as bargaining chips to encourage the world to continue buying U.S. debt, swapping short-term debt for long-term debt, and other means of debt resolution.

#关税延迟

On April 9th, only $ETH reached a lower low.

On April 12th's rebound, only $ETH did not reach a higher high.

#加密市场反弹

Recently, the energy invested in trading has decreased, and I took some time to review several historical economic recessions.

Among them, the gray rhino-type recession caused by excessive expansion of the credit market includes:

① The Great Depression of 1929 — The prosperity of the U.S. economy led to a stock market speculation craze, and investors began to believe in an "eternal bull market," leading to excessive trading on leverage and causing a crash.

② The Financial Crisis of 2008 — Investors' overly optimistic expectations for the real estate market fueled the expansion of subprime loans and the proliferation of derivatives, ultimately bursting the bubble and triggering a systemic crisis.

The black swan-type recession caused by external shocks or sudden events includes:

① The Oil Crisis of 1979 — OPEC's embargo and skyrocketing oil prices hit energy-dependent economies, resulting in a cost-push recession.

② The COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020 — The announcement of a public health crisis led to a sudden halt in economic activity, triggering a stock market circuit breaker.

Currently, we are at a century inflection point in the economic cycle, and no one knows when the next recession will begin, whether it will be triggered by a gray rhino or a black swan on some morning of a trading day. Market participants seem to be vigilant and are actively contracting credit expansion, and even Trump, the initiator of the global tense tariff war, has begun to show some restraint; perhaps we are far from the worst times.

Finally, to borrow a quote from American economist Babson from the last century: "Economic cycles do not disappear; the only thing that changes is how quickly people forget them."

Bitcoin has accumulated a large amount of liquidity around 85,000, with predatory demand. Currently, the risk-reward ratio for shorting at this position is very poor, and of course, there’s no interest in going long.

In the short term, there is a high possibility of a false breakout followed by a drop below the trend line. Once this happens, it will be a long time before we see prices above 85,000 again.

Macro risks and uncertainties remain very high, with rising U.S. Treasury yields tightening global liquidity. An emergency rate cut could be the biggest risk in the future rather than a positive factor.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is often a “result” rather than a “cause.” When the “result” appears, it means the “cause” of the crisis has already arrived.

#加密市场反弹

Binance Wallet opens the ninth phase of TGE, this time increasing the threshold to $100 in wallet or trading platform account assets for 7 consecutive days.

Give a thumbs up to the wallet team at @Binance Wallet , the threshold must come unexpectedly to prevent the studio, and let's see how many real users can enjoy the benefits of Binance Wallet's new offerings.

By the way, a suggestion for next time: raise the threshold by another $20, so that studios that only prepare $100 in assets will be caught off guard.

#币安钱包TGE

In the novel "The Three-Body Problem", the Arrivalists are doomed to fail in the logic of civilization's survival:

① The Arrivalists argue that human civilization is beyond saving and must rely on the Trisolaran civilization for "purification", which essentially constitutes a total denial of human rationality, while demanding that the Trisolaran civilization must possess a rational judgment superior to that of humans — this blind trust in an alien civilization is itself irrational.

② The Trisolarans monitor Earth through the sophons but impose strict information control over the Arrivalists. Evans dies without knowing the true attitude of the Trisolaran civilization towards humanity, while Ye Wenjie realizes in her later years the truth that "the master does not care", suggesting that the Arrivalists have an idealized perception of the Trisolarans.

③ The dimensionality reduction strike from the dark forest theory fundamentally contradicts the Arrivalists' narrative of "civilizational redemption".

— "Give time to civilization, rather than give civilization to time." The continuation of civilization is never obtained through compromise, but forged in the conscious awareness of survival when facing darkness.

#美国加征关税

The three relatively stable low-risk strategies in the current market, which I am also implementing

① Monitor daily/three-day volatility, sentiment indicators, trading volume data, liquidation data, etc., to capitalize on Bitcoin's sharp rebounds.

② After Binance Wallet releases the TGE announcement, short $BNB at a high point, and then go flat 1-4 hours after the TGE ends.

③ Observe the recent fluctuations of the TOP 5 mainstream coins, selecting those with the largest amplitude, such as $XRP , to open a short grid in a small to medium range to capture volatility. By the way, Binance's USDC U-based contract has had a trading fee of 0 for a long time, and those involved in quantitative trading know what 0 fees mean.

There is no need to scold Vietnam for its rapid decline. In 2024, Vietnam's per capita income will be about $2,700, or less than $225 per month.

Even if Vietnam reduces its import tariffs on the United States to 0, Vietnamese people cannot afford American-origin goods, which will not have any impact on their own industries, and of course will not help the United States reduce its trade deficit.

The same is true for other economies with low per capita income. Since it does not harm themselves, why not give them some face?

Only Taiwan has knelt in the mud. Lai said before that Taiwan is a chess player, not a chess piece. When it is really his turn to play chess, he will give up 5 pieces at the beginning. #美国加征关税

Ten years ago, Dalio revealed the "wealth duality" of the modern economy in the popular science video "How the Economic Machine Works": the essence of the modern economy is driven by the dual engines of "cash" and "credit".

With the economic cycle on the rise, the credit pump runs at full speed, and asset prices rise in tandem with debt expansion — this is also the underlying logic of the long-term bull market in gold and U.S. stocks over the past twenty years.

Trump's initiation of a tariff war against the world is a heavy blow to the global credit system, directly impacting the global supply chain and leading to a reduction in trade scale. This de-globalization operation will lead to a cooling of economic activity, triggering a debt contraction cycle, ultimately resulting in a comprehensive reconstruction of the valuation system for major asset classes.

During the debt contraction cycle, the overall level of global credit declines, and the values of all asset types fall in sync, with no exceptions. #美国加征关税

Since the New Year, the current market has been very poor. Recently, many KOLs have started to leverage their influence to monetize, cutting their followers.

The basic routine is to secretly position an early target in advance, then promote it, looking for 10x returns, etc. Common points:

① Choose small market cap coins, preferably with some narrative, both primary and secondary can work

② Open free communities and call on fans to build together

③ After a few days of persistence, switch to the next scheme

④ Many people are currently in a state of significant loss in this market, using their desire to quickly recover their losses, shout out at least x times' slogans to stimulate the fan group to buy passionately

It’s not that fans who follow this will definitely lose money, but in this game, KOLs are in a positive-sum game, while fans are in a negative-sum.

As long as they keep playing, how can these KOLs not earn continuously? The more they earn, the more followers they attract, creating an eternal motion machine.

In recent days, the US stock market has plummeted, while Bitcoin has chosen not to follow, leading many on social media to believe that Bitcoin is about to embark on an independent trend.

A picture speaks a thousand words:

Since January, Bitcoin has failed to create higher highs with each rebound, and I don't see the possibility of it breaking out into an independent trend. If Bitcoin continues to remain "strong," we won't see Bitcoin above 80k starting from the third week of April.

#BTC

Seeing many KOLs say that the mutual tariff increases between China and the United States are fully priced in, I hope they can align their actions with their words, and not just use their mouths to defend the market.

Historically, after the U.S. economy fell into recession in 1929, Republican senators and representatives proposed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, attempting to raise tariff barriers, reduce imports, and support domestic industries. The bill was signed into effect by Hoover in June of the following year.

This act triggered retaliatory tariffs from Canada and several European countries, causing global trade volumes to plummet by 60%, exacerbating the escalation of international financial and debt crises, and plunging the global economy into a deeper depression.

The moment the tariff policy took effect, the collapse of the macroeconomy had only just begun.

#美国加征关税