Ten years ago, Dalio revealed the "wealth duality" of the modern economy in the popular science video "How the Economic Machine Works": the essence of the modern economy is driven by the dual engines of "cash" and "credit".

With the economic cycle on the rise, the credit pump runs at full speed, and asset prices rise in tandem with debt expansion — this is also the underlying logic of the long-term bull market in gold and U.S. stocks over the past twenty years.

Trump's initiation of a tariff war against the world is a heavy blow to the global credit system, directly impacting the global supply chain and leading to a reduction in trade scale. This de-globalization operation will lead to a cooling of economic activity, triggering a debt contraction cycle, ultimately resulting in a comprehensive reconstruction of the valuation system for major asset classes.

During the debt contraction cycle, the overall level of global credit declines, and the values of all asset types fall in sync, with no exceptions. #美国加征关税