Recently, the energy invested in trading has decreased, and I took some time to review several historical economic recessions.

Among them, the gray rhino-type recession caused by excessive expansion of the credit market includes:

① The Great Depression of 1929 — The prosperity of the U.S. economy led to a stock market speculation craze, and investors began to believe in an "eternal bull market," leading to excessive trading on leverage and causing a crash.

② The Financial Crisis of 2008 — Investors' overly optimistic expectations for the real estate market fueled the expansion of subprime loans and the proliferation of derivatives, ultimately bursting the bubble and triggering a systemic crisis.

The black swan-type recession caused by external shocks or sudden events includes:

① The Oil Crisis of 1979 — OPEC's embargo and skyrocketing oil prices hit energy-dependent economies, resulting in a cost-push recession.

② The COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020 — The announcement of a public health crisis led to a sudden halt in economic activity, triggering a stock market circuit breaker.

Currently, we are at a century inflection point in the economic cycle, and no one knows when the next recession will begin, whether it will be triggered by a gray rhino or a black swan on some morning of a trading day. Market participants seem to be vigilant and are actively contracting credit expansion, and even Trump, the initiator of the global tense tariff war, has begun to show some restraint; perhaps we are far from the worst times.

Finally, to borrow a quote from American economist Babson from the last century: "Economic cycles do not disappear; the only thing that changes is how quickly people forget them."