Anndy Lian

Anndy Lian
At the market crossroads: Balancing Fed caution, geopolitical risks, and crypto resilience

The market landscape has recently shifted toward a more cautious tone, influenced by a confluence of economic signals and geopolitical developments.

The Federal Reserve’s downgrade of its growth estimates for the year, coupled with projections of higher inflation, has set the stage for a risk-off sentiment that is reverberating across asset classes. Simultaneously, escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have added layers of uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess their positions.

I will explore the implications of these factors, focusing on the Federal Reserve’s actions, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on stocks, currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. It also explores the sentiment within the cryptocurrency market and provides a perspective on how investors can navigate this complex environment.

The Federal Reserve’s Cautious Stance and Economic Implications

The Federal Reserve’s recent adjustment to its economic outlook has been a pivotal driver of market sentiment. By downgrading its growth estimates for the year, now projecting a GDP growth rate of 1.4 per cent for 2025, down from 1.7 per cent, and forecasting higher inflation at three per cent, up from 2.7 per cent, the Fed has signalled a more pessimistic view of the US economy.

This shift suggests that the central bank is grappling with the dual challenges of slowing growth and persistent inflationary pressures, a combination that evokes concerns about stagflation. Unlike previous periods where inflation was met with robust growth, the current environment reflects a more fragile recovery, with first-quarter GDP contracting due to reduced consumer and government spending, as well as increased imports ahead of anticipated tariffs.

Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasised a data-dependent approach, indicating that the Fed will closely monitor incoming economic indicators before making significant policy shifts. This cautious stance is reflected in the decision to maintain current interest rates, avoiding both aggressive cuts that might exacerbate inflation and hikes that could further stifle growth.

The Fed’s projections imply that it anticipates inflationary pressures to linger, potentially driven by supply chain disruptions, elevated energy costs, and trade policies, including tariffs proposed by the Trump administration. For markets, this translates into heightened uncertainty, as investors weigh the likelihood of prolonged economic headwinds against the possibility of stabilising policy measures.

The Bank of England’s decision to hold its key interest rate steady at 4.25 per cent, with a six-three vote, mirrors this cautious approach. The BoE’s guidance on a “gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint” suggests that it, too, is adopting a wait-and-see strategy, likely influenced by the same global uncertainties. This alignment among major central banks underscores the delicate balance policymakers are striving to maintain, contributing to a broader risk-off sentiment that is shaping market dynamics.

Geopolitical Tensions: A Catalyst for Volatility

Geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, have amplified economic uncertainties. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, with the potential for US military involvement under President Donald Trump’s consideration, has raised fears of disruptions to global energy supplies and trade routes.

Brent crude oil prices have already responded, climbing 2.8 per cent to settle at US$78.85 per barrel, reflecting concerns about supply risks in a region critical to global oil markets. Any escalation, such as a US strike on Iran, could push oil prices higher, intensifying inflationary pressures and complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to manage the economy.

The ripple effects of these tensions are evident in equity markets, particularly in Asia. On Thursday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plummeted 1.99 per cent, leading regional declines as news of potential US military action surfaced. This sell-off underscores the vulnerability of risk assets to geopolitical shocks, as investors retreat from equities in favour of safer alternatives.

US equity futures also point to a lower opening, moderating Thursday’s declines, which occurred while stock markets and Treasuries were closed for a holiday. The interplay between geopolitical risks and economic data is likely to sustain market volatility, as investors seek clarity on both the conflict’s trajectory and its economic fallout.

Currency and commodity markets: Safe-havens in focus

In currency markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged up to 98.91, marking its first gain in three weeks. This uptick reflects a classic flight-to-safety response, as the US dollar is widely regarded as a safe-haven currency during periods of global uncertainty.

The dollar’s strength is bolstered by the Fed’s cautious outlook, which has dampened expectations of imminent rate cuts, making US assets more appealing to global investors. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have further fueled this trend, as traders rush to hedge their exposures, reinforcing the dollar’s role as a stabilising force amid chaos.

Gold, another traditional safe-haven asset, has remained relatively stable at US$3,370 per ounce. This lack of significant movement is intriguing, given the geopolitical backdrop. Typically, gold rallies during times of crisis, yet its current steadiness suggests that investors are not yet in a state of panic.

Instead, it may indicate a measured response to the uncertainties, with market participants awaiting further developments before committing heavily to gold. In contrast, the rise in Brent crude oil prices underscores the immediate impact of supply-side risks, highlighting the divergent dynamics within the commodity space.

Cryptocurrencies: Resilience amid consolidation

Amid this broader market caution, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have demonstrated notable resilience. Bitcoin has held steady above US$104,000, a remarkable feat given the risk-off sentiment prevailing elsewhere. This stability comes despite a broader market consolidation, suggesting that Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a distinct asset class, potentially serving as a hedge against inflation or a store of value in an uncertain world.

Glassnode’s recent report provides deeper insight into this trend, noting a shift in Bitcoin volume toward centralised exchanges and a decline in on-chain network activity. Transaction counts have hit low levels, driven by a drop in non-monetary transactions, yet the average transaction volume remains robust at US$36.2K. This suggests that, although overall activity has slowed, larger entities such as institutional investors or high-net-worth individuals continue to engage with the network, thereby supporting Bitcoin’s price resilience.

Ethereum mirrors this pattern, with major holders accumulating Ether (priced at US$2,516) over the past month, while retail investors have been selling. This divergence suggests a growing confidence among larger players in Ethereum’s long-term potential, perhaps tied to its role in decentralised finance (DeFi) and smart contract ecosystems, even as smaller investors take profits or reduce risk exposure.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which fell to a “Neutral” score of 54 out of 100 on Friday, down from last week’s “Greed” average of 61, reflects this cautious optimism. Calculated using factors such as market volatility, social media trends, and momentum, the index indicates a cooling of speculative fervour, aligning with broader economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Crypto market sentiment: A balanced perspective

The neutral sentiment in the crypto market, as captured by the Fear & Greed Index, is a telling indicator of the current mood. Retail traders’ attitudes toward Bitcoin are split nearly evenly between bullish and bearish outlooks, a level of indecision last seen in April when global markets reeled from Trump’s tariff announcements.

This balanced sentiment contrasts with the greed that dominated earlier periods, as evidenced by last month’s average score of 70, suggesting that the Fed’s economic warnings and Middle East tensions have tempered enthusiasm. However, the accumulation by major Ethereum holders and Bitcoin’s price stability above $104,000 hint at underlying confidence among sophisticated investors, who may see these assets as viable alternatives in a low-yield, inflationary environment.

Navigating the landscape: Opportunities and risks

From my perspective, the current global economic and market situation is a study in contrasts—caution juxtaposed with pockets of resilience. The Federal Reserve’s downgraded growth outlook and higher inflation projections signal a challenging road ahead, potentially prolonging economic uncertainty and weighing on risk assets like stocks.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add another layer of complexity, driving volatility and reinforcing the demand for safe havens, such as the US dollar. Yet, the stability of gold and the strength of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum suggest that investors are not entirely abandoning risk but are instead recalibrating their strategies.

For investors, this environment demands a nuanced approach. The resilience of Bitcoin and Ethereum offers opportunities, particularly for those who believe in their long-term potential as hedges against inflation or as alternative investments. However, the drop in Bitcoin’s network activity and the neutral sentiment in the crypto market warrant caution, as they could signal a consolidation phase rather than a sustained rally.

Diversification remains key—pairing exposure to cryptocurrencies with traditional safe havens like the dollar or gold can mitigate risks while preserving upside potential. Monitoring upcoming data, such as the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, the US Leading Index, and Eurozone Consumer Confidence, along with central bank commentary from figures like Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, will be crucial in shaping expectations.

In conclusion, the global economic and market landscape is navigating a period of heightened caution, driven by the Federal Reserve’s sobering outlook and geopolitical flashpoints. While stocks and commodities reflect this risk-off mood, cryptocurrencies stand out as a beacon of resilience, albeit with caveats. For those willing to embrace complexity, there are opportunities to be seized; however, success will hinge on staying informed, adaptable, and strategically balanced in the face of uncertainty.

 

Source: https://e27.co/at-the-market-crossroads-balancing-fed-caution-geopolitical-risks-and-crypto-resilience-20250620/

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Anndy Lian
CNA Explains: Singapore’s tightened crypto licensing rules – ‘closing the door’ or ‘raising the bar’?

SINGAPORE: The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has moved to tighten its regulation of unlicensed cryptocurrency firms operating in the country.

Digital token service providers based in Singapore that only serve overseas markets will need to be licensed by Jun 30 – or they’ll have to suspend or cease their unregulated activities here.

Why is MAS doing this?

Experts told CNA the authority was closing a loophole in the industry.

“It’s a step towards consistency,” said intergovernmental blockchain advisor Anndy Lian, adding that ensuring digital token service providers meet the same standards could bolster trust.

Prior to the regulation, providers targeting overseas markets could sidestep licensing requirements and exploit “lighter oversight” while operating from Singapore, he noted.

“This move levels the playing field and likely reflects pressure to align with global anti-money laundering efforts,” said Mr Lian.

Mr Adrian Ang, a partner at Allen & Gledhill’s financial services department, added that it was necessary to support standards set by the global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog, the Financial Action Task Force.

“Without regulation, the anonymity, speed and cross-border nature of their activities make this sector highly vulnerable to criminal abuse,” he said.

How will firms be affected?

As of Jun 19, MAS has granted digital payment token licences to 33 institutions, including major players like Coinbase and OKX.

While unlicensed digital payment token services can still apply for a local license, MAS has said that it has “set the bar high” and will “generally not issue” one.

Bitget and Bybit are among the top ten exchange operators by volume that do not have a Singapore licence.

A Bloomberg report said Bitget will relocate staff to jurisdictions such as Dubai and Hong Kong, and that Bybit has plans to follow suit.

But experts pointed out that it is the smaller firms that will feel the heat.

While larger firms have in-house legal and compliance departments and experience in dealing with licensing frameworks, smaller and mid-sized players face an “uphill task,” said Mr Mike Chiam, a fintech lawyer at Foxwood LLC.

“Many of them relied on operating from Singapore under a ‘non-retail, overseas-only’ assumption. That assumption no longer holds,” he said.

For these firms – which include unlicensed crypto exchanges, over-the-counter brokers and decentralised finance projects targeting overseas markets – compliance costs, legal restructuring or a complete shutdown are on the table, he added.

Mr Lian, who knows of many small firms trying to shift out of Singapore since early June, agreed that added compliance costs and processes weigh heavily on these.

“I’ve seen startups struggle with similar red tape elsewhere, and it risks pushing innovation to less regulated regions if not handled carefully,” he said.

What about employees?

Mr Chiam said a common question he’s had to deal with relates to whether employees whose job scope involves dealing with digital tokens must relocate.

Based on his law firm’s understanding from employees’ enquiries, it has found that such workers are generally not affected by MAS’ stricter rules, he said.

Practically speaking, employees working for digital token firms do not have to relocate – or at least, that is not the legislative intention, Mr Chiam added.

“On a positive note, employees appear to be interested in knowing how to better comply with regulations and keep abreast of such updates – overall a heightened awareness of the regulatory stance,” he said.

An employee from MEXC, who requested anonymity, observed that other centralised exchanges have introduced additional know your customer (KYC) checks and anti-money laundering (AML) frameworks.

These policies verify customers’ identities, to prevent illicit activity and to comply with global regulations.

Although MEXC does not have a local licence, the employee said his colleagues in Singapore have not been significantly affected.

“There are some observed changes within the compliance and legal teams, but for the most part, it is still business as usual,” he said.

An employee from Bitget, who also requested anonymity, claimed that about ten members of the customer service team were laid off earlier in June.

CNA has reached out to MEXC and Bitget for comment, as well as other firms listed in Singapore but not licensed by MAS.

What does it mean for the industry here?

Ms Angela Ang, who heads Asia Pacific’s policy and strategic partnerships at blockchain intelligence company TRM Labs, said that while Singapore’s approach to crypto may not resonate with everyone, it has been “very consistent”.

“Firms that are not operating this specific kind of business model should not be unduly alarmed. Crypto businesses can still obtain licences here if they are prepared to have a substantive presence, including servicing Singapore customers,” said Ms Ang.

She added that the industry has had “significant runway” to make preparations since the Financial Services and Markets Act was passed in April 2022.

In a media release on Jun 6, MAS also said its position has been “consistently communicated” for a few years since its first response to public consultation issued in February 2022.

It added that based on available information, it was aware of a “very small number” of providers affected.

Allen & Gledhill’s Mr Ang agreed that most crypto firms here should have already undertaken licensing considerations prior to commencing their business, as licensing requirements have been “in force for many years.”

Ultimately, the move should not be misread as Singapore turning hostile to digital assets, Mr Chiam said.

“Instead, the law is making it clear: If your fintech wants to use Singapore’s framework and reputation, you must meet Singapore’s standards,” he said.

“In that sense, Singapore isn’t closing the door – it’s raising the bar.”

 

Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/crypto-licensing-mas-cna-explains-5186446

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Anndy Lian
Global markets in limbo: The Fed’s rate decision and Bitcoin’s next move

The Federal Reserve’s latest decision to hold interest rates steady, paired with cautious remarks from Chair Jerome Powell, has cast a shadow over global risk sentiment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin teeters on the edge of a significant technical move, with traders eyeing key levels amid a backdrop of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to maintain the Fed funds rate within the range of 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent, a decision that aligned with market expectations. However, the real story emerged from Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference, where he underscored the challenges facing the central bank.

Powell pointed to tariff-driven economic uncertainty and persistent inflation risks as major hurdles complicating the Fed’s ability to ease monetary policy aggressively. His remarks suggest a central bank that is treading carefully, wary of stoking inflation further while grappling with signs of a slowing economy.

The Fed’s updated economic projections reinforced this cautious outlook. Growth forecasts for 2025 were downgraded to 1.4 per cent from 1.7 per cent in March, signalling weaker economic momentum. Inflation expectations rose to three per cent from 2.7 per cent, reflecting ongoing price pressures, while the unemployment rate is now projected to increase to 4.5 per cent from 4.4 per cent.

These figures paint a picture of an economy caught between sluggish growth and stubborn inflation, a scenario that leaves little room for bold policy shifts. This signals a Fed that’s more likely to prioritise stability over stimulus in the near term, a stance that could keep markets on edge as investors search for clearer direction.

Markets react with hesitation

The US equity markets closed Wednesday with a lack of conviction, reflecting the uncertainty sparked by the Fed’s messaging. The S&P 500 slipped by a marginal 0.035 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.10 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite eked out a modest gain of 0.13 per cent.

This mixed performance suggests investors are unsure how to interpret the Fed’s reluctance to pivot toward rate cuts, especially with economic growth faltering and inflation lingering above the Fed’s two per cent target. This indecision could persist, particularly with US stock and bond markets closed today for Juneteenth, leaving traders with fewer immediate catalysts to drive sentiment.

In the bond market, we observed a subtle divergence that suggests shifting expectations. The two-year US Treasury yield fell by 1 basis point to 3.941 per cent, possibly indicating that investors anticipate short-term rates will hold steady or ease slightly as growth slows.

Meanwhile, the 10-year yield edged up by 0.2 basis points to 4.391 per cent, suggesting mild concerns about longer-term inflation or economic resilience. This flattening yield curve dynamic is something I find intriguing; it could imply that the market is pricing in a prolonged period of uncertainty rather than a sharp recession or recovery.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 98.91, extending Tuesday’s 0.8 per cent surge. The dollar’s strength likely stems from its safe-haven status amid global unease, bolstered by the Fed’s relatively hawkish tone compared to other central banks. Gold, however, bucked its usual role as a safe-haven asset, falling 0.6 per cent to US$3,369 per ounce. I suspect the stronger dollar played a role here, as it often exerts downward pressure on gold prices.

On the flip side, Brent crude oil rose 0.3 per cent to US$76.70 per barrel, a move that could reflect supply-side worries or geopolitical tensions rather than robust demand. These commodity movements highlight how currency dynamics and external factors are currently overshadowing traditional risk-on/risk-off patterns.

A global patchwork of central bank responses

While the Fed holds its ground, other central banks are charting their own courses, reflecting the diverse economic pressures at play globally. The Bank of England (BOE) is expected to maintain its interest rate at 4.25 per cent today, a decision that aligns with the Fed’s cautious approach as the UK balances inflation and growth concerns.

In contrast, a Bloomberg survey suggests the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is poised to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.0 per cent, a move that would underscore Switzerland’s ongoing struggle with deflationary pressures and a strong franc. This is a pragmatic step, though it risks further weakening the SNB’s already limited policy toolkit.

In Asia, the Philippines’ Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is anticipated to lower its target reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points, signaling a shift toward supporting growth amid softening economic conditions. Taiwan’s Central Bank (CBC), however, is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady, opting for stability in a region where trade and tech sectors remain critical drivers. These varied responses fascinate me—they illustrate how interconnected yet distinct the global economy is, with each central bank tailoring its strategy to local realities while keeping an eye on the Fed’s lead.

Asian equity indices opened lower today, tracking the uneven cues from Wall Street and the Fed’s outlook. This softness aligns with my sense that risk sentiment is retreating globally, as investors weigh the combined impact of slower growth, sticky inflation, and policy uncertainty. It’s a reminder that no market operates in isolation; what happens in Washington reverberates across continents.

Bitcoin’s technical tightrope

Against this macroeconomic backdrop, Bitcoin is capturing attention as it navigates a precarious technical setup. Trading near US$104,773, the cryptocurrency is squeezed between a rising trendline and a descending 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) at US$105,529. This triangle pattern, often a sign of impending volatility, is underscored by recent price action: three consecutive candles with lower wicks have defended support around US$104,000, demonstrating buyer resilience; yet, the 50-period EMA caps any upward push.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is flattening, hinting at the possibility of a bullish crossover—a development that could spark upward momentum. A close above US$105,530 would be the bullish trigger, potentially driving Bitcoin toward US$106,650 and US$107,750.

Conversely, a break below US$103,500 would tilt the outlook bearish, with support levels at US$102,180 and US$100,450 coming into focus. Currently, the price prediction leans bearish due to mixed catalysts; however, I believe the market’s next move hinges on whether volume and momentum confirm a breakout or breakdown.

What strikes me about Bitcoin here is its dual nature—it’s both a speculative asset tied to risk sentiment and a potential hedge against economic turmoil. If global markets falter under the weight of the Fed’s caution and geopolitical risks, Bitcoin could face selling pressure alongside equities.

Yet, its historical resilience and appeal as an inflation hedge might draw buyers if traditional assets lose ground. I’m inclined to watch US$104,000 as a pivotal level for now; holding above it keeps the bullish case alive, while a drop below US$103,500 could signal a deeper pullback.

Options market signals caution

The Bitcoin options market offers another layer of insight, revealing a pronounced tilt toward downside protection. On Deribit, the put-to-call volume ratio spiked to 2.17 over the past 24 hours, reflecting heavy demand for put options—contracts that allow holders to sell at a set price, effectively insuring against declines.

For options expiring June 20, open interest in puts struck at US$100,000 now dominates, with a put-to-call ratio of 1.16. This surge in protective bets suggests traders are bracing for a potential drop to that US$100,000 level, driven perhaps by geopolitical jitters or broader economic fears.

I find this options activity telling. It’s not outright panic—call options are still in play—but it shows a market on guard, with participants unwilling to bet big on upside without clearer signals. In my view, this hedging reflects the same uncertainty rippling through equities and bonds: no one’s quite sure where the next shoe will drop, so they’re preparing for the worst while hoping for the best.

My take on the bigger picture

Stepping back, I see a global market landscape defined by hesitation and complexity. The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, paired with Powell’s guarded comments, sets a tone of restraint that’s reverberating worldwide.

Weaker growth, higher inflation, and rising unemployment form a challenging trifecta that limits the Fed’s room to maneuver, and I suspect this will keep volatility elevated as markets seek clarity. The mixed signals from stocks, bonds, and commodities only deepen the ambiguity—investors seem caught between fear of a slowdown and faint hope for a soft landing.

For Bitcoin, the technical setup and options sentiment suggest a market at a tipping point. I lean slightly bearish in the short term, given the weight of global risks and the lack of a strong bullish catalyst. A break below US$103,500 wouldn’t surprise me, especially if equity markets stumble further.

That said, Bitcoin’s ability to decouple from traditional assets during times of crisis keeps me open to an upside surprise if it clears US$105,530 with conviction. Either way, I’d urge traders to stay nimble and closely monitor volume. Confirmation will be key.

Ultimately, this feels like a moment for patience rather than bold bets. The Fed’s caution, global policy divergence, and Bitcoin’s technical tension all point to a period of flux. For investors, staying informed and flexible will be critical as we navigate this uncertain terrain. Whether it’s a breakout or a breakdown, the next few days could set the tone for markets well beyond June.

 

Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-in-limbo-the-feds-rate-decision-and-bitcoins-next-move-20250619/

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Anndy Lian
Bitcoin Slides as Trump’s Middle East Warning Rattles Markets

Tensions in the Middle East have once again shown how global unrest can shake financial markets. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has sent Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market into a decline. Over the past 24 hours, the total global crypto market value has dropped by more than 3% according to data from CoinGecko.

In Brief

Global crypto market fell over 3% in 24 hours amid rising geopolitical tensions.

President Donald Trump’s early G7 exit and warning on Tehran added to investor anxiety.

Michael van de Poppe said the dip may be due to a typical pre-FOMC risk-off move, not just geopolitics.

Trump’s Actions Trigger Market Reaction

US President Donald Trump’s early exit from a world leaders’ meeting and his Truth Social post stirred concern among traders.

He had travelled to Canada for the G7 summit but left ahead of schedule. The reason, he said, was the rising tensions between Israel and Iran.

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Fox News reported that Trump asked the National Security Council to ready the White House’s Situation Room. Not long after, he posted on Truth Social, urging people in Tehran to evacuate immediately. The message added to market concerns.

The White House later confirmed his early departure. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump arrived on Sunday and held meetings but left after Monday’s dinner due to the crisis.

Bitcoin Drops but Holds Key Level

Trump’s sudden exit and warning caused a dip in Bitcoin’s price. Before the news broke on Monday, Bitcoin had climbed to an intraday high of $108,780. But following the developments, the price started to fall.

Despite the recent dip, Bitcoin has managed to stay above the $100,000 mark since early May. Crypto analyst Anndy Lian suggested that Bitcoin’s recent steadiness signals growing maturity. He noted that its ability to stay above $100,000, even during political tensions, reflects increasing investor confidence.

Lian pointed to strong institutional investment, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust bringing in about $12 billion this year. He added that Bitcoin’s recent drop reflects market fears sparked by geopolitical tensions, but its ability to hold steady suggests it is becoming more than just a risky asset.

Still, not everyone believes the market drop is directly tied to the Middle East. Analyst Michael Van de Poppe shared a different view. He posted on his X page that Bitcoin was already starting to weaken before the recent headlines.

He noted that a drop below $105,000 could trigger liquidations, likely leading to a deeper decline. While some blame global tensions, van de Poppe sees the move as a typical “risk-off” correction ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting.

Altcoins didn’t escape the downturn either. In the last 24 hours, Ethereum has slipped more than 4%, Ripple’s XRP dropped about 4%, and Binance’s BNB lost 2%.

Other tokens like Dogecoin, Solana, and Cardano each fell over 5% within the same timeframe.

Analysts Stay Bullish Despite the Dip

Despite the dip, some analysts remain optimistic about major tokens. They see strong technical patterns forming in XRP, Ethereum and Dogecoin.

A pseudonymous analyst says a break above $2.40 could push XRP toward a $14 target

Bitcoinsensus points out Ethereum has shown a bullish flag pattern since 2021, targeting $8,000 on breakout

Cryptobatman notes Dogecoin is following a classic breakout pattern, with recent signs indicating a possible surge

Despite the optimism, tensions in the Middle East continue to rise. Several countries, including China, have urged their citizens in Israel to leave immediately via land borders due to growing risks.

The Russian embassy echoed the same advice. Ambassador Anatoly Viktorov told local media that all Russians in Israel should leave until the fighting stops.

It remains to be seen how things will unfold in the coming days. But if the conflict continues, it could weigh heavily on global financial markets, causing Bitcoin and altcoins to drop even further.

 

Source: https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-slides-as-trumps-middle-east-warning-rattles-markets/

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Anndy Lian
Crypto feels geopolitical heat, Wall Street dips: What else to expect?

We are currently navigating a precarious landscape as escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, stoke fears of a broader regional conflict that could draw in the United States. This geopolitical uncertainty has triggered a notable retreat in global risk sentiment, with investors increasingly wary of the potential for direct US military involvement.

On Tuesday, this apprehension was palpable in the performance of US stock markets, which closed lower across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.7 per cent, the S&P 500 declined by 0.8 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.9 per cent. These declines underscore the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical risks, especially those that could disrupt global economic stability.

Asia’s markets and central banks on alert

Meanwhile, in Asia, equity indices mainly opened lower on Wednesday, suggesting that the risk-off sentiment is permeating global markets. The US equity index futures indicated a potential rebound, with expectations of a higher open for US stocks. This mixed picture highlights the market’s ongoing struggle to assess the full impact of the unfolding events in the Middle East.

Adding to the complexity, central banks in Asia are grappling with their own set of challenges, as geopolitical tensions intersect with inflationary pressures and concerns about economic growth. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its benchmark short-term interest rates at 0.5 per cent, a decision reached unanimously and widely anticipated by market analysts.

The BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda issued a cautionary note, warning that a sustained rise in energy and oil prices—exacerbated by the Middle East conflict—could drive underlying inflation higher, potentially necessitating further monetary policy action. This statement highlights the delicate balance that central banks must strike in responding to external shocks while maintaining domestic economic stability. Looking ahead, attention in Asia shifts to Bank Indonesia’s (BI) rate decision on Wednesday.

While most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Bank of Indonesia (BI) to hold rates steady, a significant minority anticipates a 25-basis-point cut. This divergence in expectations reflects the uncertainty surrounding Indonesia’s monetary policy trajectory, particularly as the country navigates the dual pressures of global geopolitical risks and domestic economic needs.

Bonds, dollar, and oil reflect flight to safety and inflation worries

In the bond market, a flight to safety was evident as investors sought refuge in US Treasury securities. The yield on the two-year Treasury note eased by one basis point to 3.95 per cent, while the 10-year yield fell more substantially by five basis points to 4.39 per cent. This movement suggests that investors are favouring longer-term bonds, likely as a hedge against the geopolitical uncertainty and the potential for slower economic growth.

The decline in yields also points to a broader market expectation that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may need to adopt a more accommodative stance if the situation in the Middle East escalates further. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) staged a robust recovery, climbing 0.8 points from 98.00 to 98.80.

The dollar’s strength in this context is emblematic of its role as a safe-haven currency during periods of heightened global risk. Investors are likely seeking the relative stability and liquidity of the dollar as they brace for potential market disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict.

Commodities, too, have been caught in the crosscurrents of geopolitical risk. Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, experienced a slight softening, dipping below US$3,400 per ounce to close at US$3,390. This modest decline is somewhat counterintuitive, given the rising geopolitical tensions, and may indicate that investors are not yet fully committed to gold as a hedge, possibly due to the simultaneous strength of the US dollar or other market dynamics.

In stark contrast, Brent crude oil prices surged by four per cent to US$76.40 per barrel, driven by fears that the conflict in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies from the region, which accounts for a significant portion of global production. The spike in oil prices carries inflationary implications, as higher energy costs can ripple through the global economy, affecting everything from consumer prices to corporate profit margins. This development further complicates the task for central banks, which must now contend with the dual threats of geopolitical instability and rising inflation.

Crypto cools as tensions heat up

The cryptocurrency market has not been immune to these developments. Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, initiated a fresh decline, falling below the US$106,800 zone before stabilising around US$106,200. Technical analysis reveals a short-term triangle formation with support at US$104,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is currently trading below both the $106,800 level and its 100-hour simple moving average, suggesting that it faces significant resistance.

However, if it manages to hold above the US$103,500 zone, there is potential for a renewed upward movement. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also relinquished its gains from Monday’s rally, briefly dipping below US$2,500 before recovering some ground overnight. These price movements reflect the broader risk-off sentiment permeating global markets, as investors reduce their exposure to more speculative assets, such as cryptocurrencies, in favour of traditional safe havens.

Geopolitical risks have been further amplified by statements from former US President Donald Trump, who, in a series of posts on Truth Social, claimed that the US has “complete and total control” over Iran’s skies and called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” While these statements do not reflect official US policy, they contribute to the uncertainty surrounding potential US involvement in the conflict.

The prospect of direct US military engagement in the Middle East is a significant concern for investors, as it could lead to a substantial escalation of hostilities, with far-reaching consequences for global markets. The situation is fluid, and any miscalculation by the involved parties could trigger a rapid deterioration in market sentiment.

Massive liquidations reflect market jitters

In the cryptocurrency space, the market’s reaction to these geopolitical developments has been swift and severe. Over the past 24 hours, more than US$330 million in positions were liquidated, with bullish long bets accounting for nearly US$268 million of that total. This wave of liquidations underscores the heightened volatility in the crypto market, as traders adjust their positions in response to shifting risk dynamics.

It is also worth noting that approximately US$650 million in Bitcoin short positions are at risk of liquidation if the cryptocurrency rebounds to US$107,000. This suggests that while the market has been under pressure, there remains potential for a sharp reversal if sentiment improves.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s Open Interest—a measure of the total number of outstanding derivative contracts—fell by 1.97 per cent in the last 24 hours, indicating that some traders are closing their positions amid the uncertainty. Despite this, more than 55 per cent of Binance’s top traders with open Bitcoin positions are positioned long, according to the long/short ratio. This suggests that a segment of the market remains cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects, even in the face of geopolitical headwinds.

Market sentiment, as gauged by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, has shifted from “Greed” to “Neutral,” reflecting a more cautious stance among cryptocurrency investors. This change aligns with the broader retreat in risk appetite observed across global markets. The index, which aggregates various indicators to assess market psychology, serves as a barometer for investor sentiment. Its move to “Neutral” suggests that the market is in a state of flux, with participants weighing the potential for further downside against the possibility of a recovery.

A personal take on market fragility

From my perspective, the current situation is a stark reminder of how fragile global markets can be. The escalating tensions in the Middle East are not just a regional issue—they have the potential to impact global economic landscapes significantly. The surge in oil prices, for instance, is a double-edged sword: it could fuel inflation, prompting tighter monetary policies, but it could also strain economies already grappling with post-pandemic recovery.

The mixed signals from gold and cryptocurrencies fascinate me—gold’s slight dip despite rising tensions suggests that investors might be prioritising liquidity over traditional hedges, while Bitcoin’s resilience amid liquidations hints at a stubborn bullish undercurrent. I find the central banks’ predicament particularly compelling; the BoJ’s warning about oil-driven inflation and Bank Indonesia’s uncertain path illustrate the tightrope policymakers must walk.

Personally, I think the markets are in a wait-and-see mode—everyone is holding their breath, hoping for de-escalation, but preparing for the worst. It’s a nerve-wracking time, and I can’t help but wonder how long this uncertainty can persist before we see a decisive shift, one way or another.

Conclusion: Balancing risk and caution

In conclusion, the escalating tensions in the Middle East are casting a long shadow over global markets, with the potential for direct US involvement adding a layer of complexity to an already volatile situation. Investors are responding by seeking safety in traditional havens, such as US Treasuries and the dollar, while commodities like oil are surging due to fears of supply disruptions.

The cryptocurrency market, often seen as a barometer of risk sentiment, has also been impacted, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing declines but showing signs of resilience. Central banks, particularly in Asia, are facing a delicate balancing act as they navigate the interplay between geopolitical risks, inflationary pressures, and economic growth.

As the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, markets are likely to remain on edge, with investors closely monitoring developments for any signs of escalation or de-escalation. In this environment, a diversified portfolio that includes both risk assets and safe havens may be the most prudent approach for navigating the uncertainty ahead. The coming days will be critical.

 

Source: https://e27.co/crypto-feels-geopolitical-heat-wall-street-dips-what-else-to-expect-20250618/

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JPMorgan Embraces Bitcoin ETFs As Loan Collateral: Is TradFi Finally Changing?

JPMorgan‘s decision to accept Bitcoin ETFs as loan collateral marks a pivotal shift in how traditional finance (TradFi) evaluates cryptocurrency risk and client liquidity, with experts predicting advanced risk models and hybrid analytics to integrate crypto’s unique volatility and 24/7 market dynamics into mainstream financial frameworks.

This policy, set to roll out in the coming weeks, reflects a broader trend of integrating cryptocurrencies into conventional banking systems amid a more permissive regulatory environment under the Trump administration.

Experts highlight that this shift will reshape how banks assess crypto-related risks and client liquidity.

Speaking with Benzinga, Anndy Lian, an intergovernmental blockchain advisor and author, describes JPMorgan’s decision as a “catalyst for change.”

By treating Bitcoin ETFs similarly to traditional securities, banks may develop sophisticated models to evaluate crypto volatility, applying higher risk weights than for stocks.

“Under Basel III, Bitcoin ETFs are treated as stocks, not crypto-assets, allowing better capital treatment, 100% risk-weighted assets (RWA) exposure instead of 1,250% for direct crypto,” Lian explains.

However, banks may charge higher loan rates due to limited capital benefits, as traditional stocks can reduce RWA to zero with a 25% haircut.

Lian notes that including crypto in net worth calculations will enhance clients’ borrowing capacity, aligning with trends where ETFs are evaluated alongside stocks and real estate, boosting global liquidity access.

Marcin Kazmierczak, COO and co-founder of RedStone, sees this as a “fundamental shift” in risk assessment, moving crypto from a speculative asset to a legitimate class.

“We’re seeing convergence between TradFi risk models and crypto’s volatility profile through structured products like ETFs,” he told Benzinga, pointing to tokenized products like BlackRock‘s Kazmierczak anticipates hybrid models combining traditional credit analysis with on-chain analytics to reflect crypto’s 24/7 markets and programmable nature, creating nuanced liquidity calculations.

The integration of crypto assets into lending frameworks also raises concerns about regulatory fragmentation and systemic risks, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi).

Lian warns that jurisdictions with laxer Basel III capital requirements, such as the U.S. and UK (delayed to January 2027), could attract crypto activities, creating arbitrage opportunities.

This could lead to overexposure in less regulated markets, with potential spillovers into DeFi through collateral or liquidity pools, posing risks to financial stability.

Kazmierczak, however, views fragmentation as a driver of innovation. “DeFi’s composability allows it to route around restrictive frameworks,” he says, noting that clear regulatory frameworks will attract institutional capital, fostering better standards and self-regulation.

To maintain market stability as crypto-backed lending grows, experts emphasize robust safeguards.

Lian advocates for over-collateralization (50-90% loan-to-value ratios), real-time reporting of collateral values, and segregated custody to prevent hacks and rehypothecation risks.

Kazmierczak highlights DeFi’s existing infrastructure, such as smart contract-based collateral management and automated liquidation mechanisms, as transparent and resilient.

“BlackRock’s BUIDL integrates institutional-grade compliance, and robust oracle networks and multi-sig custody solutions are evolving rapidly,” he says, suggesting these systems could surpass traditional finance in resilience.

JPMorgan’s policy shift follows a broader industry trend, with rival Morgan Stanley planning to add crypto trading to its E*Trade platform.

Previously, JPMorgan accepted crypto ETFs as collateral on a case-by-case basis, but the new framework will apply globally, treating crypto holdings akin to stocks, real estate, or art in net worth and liquidity assessments.

Since their U.S. launch in January 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have grown to manage $128 billion, driven by rising demand and a crypto-friendly regulatory shift post-Trump’s election.

Despite CEO Jamie Dimon‘s skepticism, comparing Bitcoin to a “pet rock” and defending clients’ right to invest, JPMorgan’s embrace of crypto ETFs points toward the asset class’s growing legitimacy.

 

Source: https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/25/06/45977672/jpmorgan-embraces-bitcoin-etfs-as-loan-collateral-is-tradfi-finally-changing

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