Adam_Greeks_live格致研究员

#期权

We are happy to announce that Greeks.live has reached an agreement with the main investors of the first round (Pre-Series A)!

Our team is committed to providing our users with the best cryptocurrency options trading experience possible, and this funding will help us achieve that goal.

We are excited to continue exploring new opportunities and partnerships in the coming years and look forward to sharing our progress with you. Thank you for your continued support and we can’t wait to reveal the future of Greeks.live to you! 😀

【June 13 Options Expiration Data】
28,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.9, maximum pain point at $106,000, nominal value of $2.93 billion.
244,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 1.13, maximum pain point at $2,650, nominal value of $620 million.
Recent volatility has consistently occurred before weekly expirations. Due to Israel's attacks on Iran, market risk aversion has significantly increased, leading to a notable correction in cryptocurrencies.
Looking at the main delivery data, the delivery volume is about 8% of the total open interest, this ratio has declined again after rebounding last week. In terms of implied volatility, BTC's IV remains low, while ETH's IV has risen significantly, indicating more room for volatility strategies focused on ETH.
As both IV and RV continue to decline, this week's VRP has remained high, indicating a drastic decrease in RV. The need for a larger safety cushion is causing this, serving as a hallmark signal of extremely low market volatility. Following today's adjustments, VRP has decreased but remains at a high level.
Combined with block trading data, the main players are currently increasing their positions in put options, entering a defensive phase.

Essential for Investment, Key Events This Week (6/9-6/15)

The most important macro data this week is Wednesday's CPI, while Tuesday has several cryptocurrency-related reviews. Additionally, the China-U.S. trade negotiations will begin on Tuesday, making these two days particularly noteworthy. The standoff between Trump and Musk continues, which is also an event worth paying attention to, as both are influential figures friendly to cryptocurrency.

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Key Events This Week:

6/9 Monday

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SEC Holds Roundtable on "DeFi and the American Spirit"

6/10 Tuesday

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First Meeting of the China-U.S. Trade Negotiation Mechanism

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U.S. House of Representatives Reviews Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill

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SEC Delays Decision on Litecoin Spot ETF Application Submitted by Canary Capital, Responses Due by June 10

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Strategy Plans to Raise Approximately $1 Billion Through Preferred Stock Issuance to Increase Bitcoin Holdings

6/11 Wednesday

💼
U.S. May CPI (20:30)

6/12 Thursday

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U.S. May PPI (20:30)

💼
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week (20:30)

6/13 Friday

💼
Federal Reserve Releases "U.S. Quarterly Financial Accounts Report" (00:30)

Outlook for This Week:
BTC's short to medium-term implied volatility has generally fallen below 40%, while ETH's main maturities are centered around 65%, which are both relatively low levels. Overall, the market has low expectations for future volatility. If one holds a view on recent market fluctuations, buying options would be a highly cost-effective operation, while deep out-of-the-money options for the medium to long term have also reached a suitable purchase range.

Today saw the largest single transaction of cryptocurrency options in history, with a total nominal value reaching $1.19 billion, equivalent to 11,350 BTC, and the premium alone amounted to $7.5 million.
This large transaction consists of two parts: one part is a bullish spread of 3,800 contracts for September, while simultaneously going long on medium to long-term volatility and prices; the other part involves selling July at-the-money call options. This portion can be combined with the September purchase to form a calendar spread, allowing for two benefits from one strategy, indicating a lack of optimism for the short term.
In simple terms, this nearly $1.2 billion options transaction suggests that there is not much expected price increase in July, while the third quarter might see a significant market movement, possibly up to a 50% increase.
Recently, the market lacks funds and hotspots, but in the long run, various positive factors are still being continuously released, which aligns with the current mainstream thinking in the market.

【June 6 Options Expiration Data】
31,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.71, maximum pain point is $105,000, notional value is $3.18 billion.
241,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.63, maximum pain point is $2,575, notional value is $590 million.
Most of this week saw a mainly sideways market, but last night, due to the public conflict between Trump and Musk, Tesla's significant drop led to a noticeable pullback in the US stock and crypto markets.
Looking at the main delivery data, the delivery volume is approximately 10% of the total open interest, a rebound after several weeks of decline. Additionally, there are several large orders this week worth noting, indicating increased market activity.
Overall, crypto institutions have low expectations for the recent rapid rise of Bitcoin, with more expectations leaning towards a long-term moderate increase.

【May 30 Options Expiration Data】
93,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.89, maximum pain point is $100,000, notional value is $9.79 billion.
624,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.81, maximum pain point is $2,300, notional value is $1.62 billion.
This week, Bitcoin mainly experienced fluctuations, while Ethereum was relatively strong, with a continued rebound lasting for two weeks. According to the main expiration data, the market remains relatively optimistic about BTC's recent breakthrough to new highs, as the Put Call Ratio for expirations is decreasing. The price above $100,000 has persisted throughout the first half of the year, and recently, deeply out-of-the-money transactions have gradually increased. The upward momentum of ETH has begun to slow down, and the market has re-evaluated ETH's price and volatility, with a slight overall increase, a medium to long-term rise of about 3%, and short-term implied volatility consistently maintained at 70%.
The expiration volume is less than 8% of the total open interest, and this ratio is continuously decreasing. Crypto institutions have not reacted much to Bitcoin's new highs, and expectations for recent surges are relatively low, with more anticipation of steady and moderate increases.

This week has a lot of macro data, but its impact on the market is limited. The influence of economic data is clearly not as significant as a statement from President Trump. Vice President Vance's attendance at the Bitcoin conference is noteworthy; the current U.S. government has a high level of influence and attention on cryptocurrencies, and various conferences may introduce favorable new policies for Bitcoin.

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Key events this week:

5/26 Monday

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U.S. and U.K. futures and stock exchanges are closed

5/27 Tuesday

💼
The U.S. SEC delays its decision on Canary Capital's Litecoin spot ETF application; comment period deadline

5/28 Wednesday

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New Zealand's central bank interest rate decision (10:00)

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U.S. Vice President Vance delivers a speech at the 'Bitcoin 2025' conference

5/29 Thursday

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The Federal Reserve releases minutes from the May monetary policy meeting (2:00)

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U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)

5/30 Friday

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U.S. April core PCE price index year-on-year (20:30)

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U.S. May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final value (22:00)

Outlook for this week:
The implied volatility of BTC is generally below 50%, having repeatedly dropped to around 45% this month, only to recover amid fluctuations. Overall, the market's expectations for future volatility are not high. Although BTC prices are oscillating near new highs, market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space is low, and it can only be said that there has been some improvement.

【May 23 Options Expiration Data】
25,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio was 1.22, maximum pain point at $104,000, notional value of $2.81 billion.
202,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio was 1.26, maximum pain point at $2,450, notional value of $570 million.
This week's Bitcoin and Ethereum expiration data is almost identical to last week's, a trend that has persisted for three weeks. Despite Bitcoin reaching an all-time high this week, there has been little reaction from the options market.
In yesterday's Space, it was mentioned that the options data intuitively reflects that there are not many people in mainstream coins during this bull market, and not many have made money from mainstream coins. This week, Bitcoin's short to medium-term RV rebounded to over 45%, but IV remains at 45%, and the VRP across all maturities continues to decline.
The delivery volume accounts for less than 8% of total open interest, and this ratio is continually decreasing, proving that crypto institutions have not reacted much to the new highs of Bitcoin, and expectations for the future are relatively flat.

May 16th Options Expiry Data

27,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio at 1.03, maximum pain point at $100,000, notional value at $2.76 billion.
220,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio at 1.36, maximum pain point at $2,300, notional value at $570 million.
This week’s Bitcoin expiry data is almost identical to last week, while Ethereum’s data, excluding price factors, is also nearly the same.
Current market sentiment is very good, but the options data intuitively shows that there aren't many people holding mainstream coins, and those who have made money from mainstream coins are few. Currently, the short-term RV for Bitcoin has dropped below 35%, and the medium to long-term is around 50%, but the decline in IV is more pronounced, with almost all dropping below 45%, leading to a retreat in the VRP across various maturities.
The delivery volume accounts for less than 9% of the total open interest, and the proportion of put options remains relatively high this month. This phenomenon may not see a significant change until June. The market is relatively optimistic about the upcoming trends, but there are not many people taking long positions on BTC in the short term.

Essential for Investment, Major Events to Watch This Week (4/28-5/2)

This week has a lot of macro data, with the most important being Friday's non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data. In the three months since Trump took office, the U.S. economy and trade have been significantly impacted, and the U.S. stock market has shown relatively weak performance. However, there is no clear sign of recession in the economic data yet, and each major macro data release is worth paying attention to for potential black swan events.

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Major Events This Week:

4/28 Monday

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Canada holds federal elections

4/29 Tuesday

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4/30 Wednesday

💼
U.S. March Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year (22:00)

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World Gold Council releases Q1 'Gold Demand Trends' report

5/1 Thursday

💼
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week (20:30)

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U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00)

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Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision and economic outlook

5/2 Friday

💼
U.S. April Unemployment Rate (20:30)

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U.S. April Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls (20:30)

Outlook for This Week:
Recently, implied volatility continues to decline, particularly with a noticeable decrease in the medium to short-term for BTC, nearing 45%. The market's expectations for future volatility are low. Although BTC prices are fluctuating around $95,000, the market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space is not high, and it can only be said that there is some improvement.

【April 25 Options Expiration Data】
78,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.75, maximum pain point is $86,000, notional value is $7.18 billion.
461,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.82, maximum pain point is $1,900, notional value is $820 million.
This week, Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded strongly, with the main term RV returning to over 55%, IV also returning to over 45%, and multiple term VRPs also back in positive territory, ending a month of negative values, which is rare for such a prolonged negative VRP. Trump's perceived weakness in the trade and tariff wars has given the market a lot of confidence, but market uncertainty will likely persist in the long term.
The delivery volume accounts for a quarter of the total open interest, with a high proportion of put options this month, reflecting the market's concerns about a downturn. However, as the market improves, the proportion of call options expiring in June has significantly increased, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the upcoming market trend.

Essential for investment, major events this week preview (4/21-4/27)

There are quite a few macro events this week, but they are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. Trump's actions were limited last week, and this week, the latest developments in the tariff war are worth paying attention to, mainly in relation to U.S. stock trends. There have been few regulatory and policy developments related to cryptocurrency this month, and events concerning cryptocurrency itself are also relatively sparse; the trends in cryptocurrencies are highly correlated with U.S. stocks.

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Major events this week:

4/21 Monday

🥚
Easter—Stock markets in Australia, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Hong Kong are closed

4/22 Tuesday

💼
IMF releases the "World Economic Outlook" report (21:00)

4/23 Wednesday

💼
Meeting of G20 finance and central bank ministers

4/24 Thursday

💼
The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions (2:00)

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U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)

4/25 Friday

💼
Final consumer confidence index for April from the University of Michigan (22:00)

💼
The SEC holds the third cryptocurrency policy roundtable, focusing on custody issues

Outlook for this week:
Recent short-term volatility has significantly decreased, especially with BTC's mid to short-term all below 50%. RV has also dropped a lot. Although the BTC price has reached a new high in a month, risk aversion sentiment in the cryptocurrency space remains high, with bearish positions consistently accounting for over 20% of the trading volume.

[April 18 Options Expiration Data]
23,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.96, maximum pain point is $82,000, notional value is $1.97 billion.
177,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.84, maximum pain point is $1,600, notional value is $280 million.
This week's market has calmed down a lot, and the news released by Trump this week was not significant, causing the market to cool down quickly. Currently, short-term RV is only 30%, and IV has also dropped significantly this week, falling below 40%. Medium to long-term RV is between 50% and 60%, and IV is concentrated around 50%. We expect that the trade war and tariff war are far from over, and market uncertainty will persist for a long time, along with prolonged market volatility.
The delivery volume accounts for less than 10% of the total open interest, and the PCR has recently remained at a high level, reflecting that the market's concerns about a decline clearly outweigh the expectations for an increase. The open interest for April and June options has remained around 25%, indicating a relatively stable market structure, with a high possibility of sideways movement. However, we are currently in a painful transition from bull to bear, and investor sentiment is relatively low. In this poor market condition of transition from bull to bear, the probability of a black swan event occurring will significantly increase, and buying some deep out-of-the-money puts would be a good choice.

【April 4th Options Expiration Data】
26,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio at 1.24, maximum pain point at $84,000, nominal value of $2.2 billion.
220,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio at 1.42, maximum pain point at $1,850, nominal value of $400 million.
This week is the first expiration after the quarterly settlement. To smoothly get through the quarterly settlement, large holders have accumulated a significant number of put options this week. Subsequently, due to the market's weakness, these options were mostly held until expiration, and the final settlement price also closed near the maximum pain point.
The settlement volume accounted for more than 10% of the total open interest, with the largest open interest being in the June quarterly options. The trading and open interest ratio of put options is on the rise, and the market structure of open interest is showing subtle changes.
Implied volatility (IV) has maintained a high level, with BTC's main term volatility rising to over 50%, while ETH's main term volatility remains around 65%, both showing varying degrees of increase compared to last week, responding to the uncertainty brought by Trump and the US stock market to the global macro market.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market lacks new inflows and narratives, resulting in relatively low investor sentiment. In this poor market transition from bull to bear, the probability of a black swan event will significantly increase, and buying some deep out-of-the-money puts would be a good choice.

【Bitcoin Options Block Trade Daily】

Today's Largest Block Trade
Today's largest block trade was a bearish calendar spread on Bitcoin, with a volume of 635 BTC and a nominal value of $110 million. This is a typical institutional volatility curve trade, profiting from the differences in volatility between near-term and long-term options, as well as their differing time decay characteristics, both of which are relatively short-term.
Trader Expectations:
Short-term volatility is relatively overestimated
Bitcoin prices are not expected to fall significantly below 75000 before the near-month expiration
The volatility surface will tend to flatten

Other Blocks
Other blocks today were also primarily concentrated in the short term, with spreads for the current week occupying the vast majority. More often than not, these are market makers adjusting their risk exposure, and the actual premiums involved are not large. This is also a common phenomenon after quarterly settlements, where market makers operate relatively cautiously, making it easier for us to identify institutional views through observing block trades.

[Cryptocurrency Options Block Trade Daily]

Today's largest block trade
Today's largest option block trade is to buy a BTC put option with an expiration date of April 25, 2025 and an exercise price of $60,000. The cumulative transaction exceeded 1,000 BTC, with a nominal face value of nearly 100 million US dollars. Deep out-of-the-money is a low-cost extreme risk hedging or high-leverage speculation. Profits need to fall by more than 30% under the current circumstances.
The risk-return ratio of this transaction is relatively low, and the premium of more than 100,000 US dollars is more suitable as an "extreme risk hedging accessory" in the portfolio, rather than an independent speculative position.

More block trades
The quarterly delivery has just ended. At present, the main block trades are still mainly for building and adjusting positions. This month, institutions have significantly strengthened their layout of put options. Large investors are not optimistic about the market this month, and the deep out-of-the-money protective positions have obviously increased.

Essential for Bitcoin investment, major events to watch this week (3/31-4/6)

This week, the most noteworthy events are the unemployment rate and non-farm data on Friday. Additionally, the impact of President Trump's planned implementation of reciprocal tariffs on the macro market on Wednesday is also worth attention. Furthermore, the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Friday deserves attention as well. There is a certain level of uncertainty in this week's macro events, and cryptocurrencies are currently highly correlated with the US stock market, with the prices of major US tech giants influencing cryptocurrencies.

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Major events this week:

4/1 Tuesday

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Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision (11:30)

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Eurozone March CPI preliminary value and February unemployment rate (17:00)

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US March ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00)

4/2 Wednesday

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US March ADP employment change (20:15)

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US President Trump's plan to implement reciprocal tariffs

4/3 Thursday

💼
European Central Bank President Lagarde speaks (1:00)

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European Central Bank releases March monetary policy meeting minutes (19:30)

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US initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)

4/4 Friday

💼
US March unemployment rate (20:30)

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US March non-farm payrolls (20:30)

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Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks (23:30)

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Cryptocurrency market outlook:
The cryptocurrency market is relatively sluggish, and after the quarterly settlement, ETH has led a wave of market decline, with ETH likely to hit a new low since 2024. The volatility of mainstream coins is not significant; currently, the implied volatility of BTC is maintained above 50%. Market sentiment is relatively pessimistic, and it's a time that tests the patience of market participants.
This week, options trading will mainly revolve around the quarterly settlement, with not much worth noting. Short-term implied volatility will bear the pressure of margin release after the quarterly settlement and is expected to see a slight decline.

【March 28th Options Expiration Data】
139,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.49, maximum pain point is $85,000, nominal value is $12.1 billion.
301,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.39, maximum pain point is $2,400, nominal value is $2.13 billion.
This week is the quarterly expiration, and the overall performance of the first quarter did not meet most people's expectations, with significant fluctuations during the period, ultimately closing at a relatively low position within the range.
The expiration volume accounts for more than 40% of the total open interest, with BTC options expiration volume accounting for nearly 80% of the total expiration volume, and ETH options expiration volume accounting for nearly 20% of the total expiration volume, while the largest among other cryptocurrencies, Sol, only accounted for 2%. Despite many doubts about ETH, the market structure of open interest remains intact.
Implied volatility (IV) has slightly decreased, with BTC's main tenor volatility falling below 50% overall, while ETH's main tenor volatility remains around 60%.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market lacks new capital inflows and new narratives, investor sentiment is starting to become sluggish, and after the quarterly expiration, short-term reversal signs are still not visible, with an increase in the actions of large holders selling both ways. Options market-making institutions have raised the intensity of selling again, and short-term IV still has room to decline, making it more difficult for buyers going forward.

Essential for Bitcoin investment, key events of the week preview (3/24-3/30)

The most noteworthy event this week is Friday's macro data; this week is a macro small week with not many events to pay attention to. The SEC chairman's qualification hearing on Thursday is also worth noting, as it may include content related to cryptocurrency.

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Key events this week:

3/25 Tuesday

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Bank of England Governor Bailey gives a speech (2:00)

3/26 Wednesday

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UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves announces the Spring Budget Statement (20:30)

3/27 Thursday

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2025 FOMC voting member, St. Louis Fed President Bullard gives a speech (1:00)

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ECB Executive Board member Panetta participates in the 11th Crypto Assets Conference panel discussion (1:40)

💼
US initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)

💼
US Senate holds qualification hearing for Paul Atkins as SEC Chairman

3/28 Friday

💼
US February Core PCE Price Index (20:30)

💼
US March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value (22:00)

💼
Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions from March monetary policy meeting

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Cryptocurrency market outlook:
The cryptocurrency market is relatively sluggish, with a single tweet from Trump boosting $trump by only 10%, indicating low market participation. Major cryptocurrencies show minimal volatility, with weekend implied volatility dropping to as low as 20%. Market participants can only patiently wait for opportunities, and market sentiment has turned relatively pessimistic.
In terms of options, the rapidly cooling market has driven down overall implied volatility, with next month's at-the-money implied volatility dropping to 45% and short-term implied volatility at multiple terms down to 40%. Recently, there have been no uncertainty events, combined with a dull market, making it impossible to maintain high implied volatility levels; selling long-term and buying short-term options is very cost-effective.

【March 21 Options Expiration Data】
22,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.84, maximum pain point $85,000, notional value $1.83 billion.
133,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.62, maximum pain point $2,000, notional value $260 million.
The market was relatively flat this week, with total options expiration volume decreasing by nearly half, and short-term implied volatility (IV) significantly declining. BTC's medium to short-term volatility has completely fallen below 50%, while ETH's medium to short-term volatility has also returned to around 60%, with short-term volatility nearly halved.
Cryptocurrency has entered a state of free oscillation and sideways movement, investor sentiment is starting to become sluggish, and as the quarter's expiration approaches, large traders generally focus on stability at this time.
Options market makers have resumed increasing the intensity of selling and tightening IV, which is betting on future short-term sideways movement. Recently, there haven’t been many significant events in cryptocurrency, and uncertainty has greatly decreased, allowing market makers to seize the opportunity to recover profits, making it relatively difficult for buyers over the past two weeks.