Adam_Greeks_live格致研究员
期权市场数据 | 宏观金融分析 | 期权工具解析 | 原创投资观点 推特@BTC__options
8 Following
1.0K+ Followers
3.7K+ Liked
372 Shared
See original
PINNED
#期权
We are happy to announce that Greeks.live has reached an agreement with the main investors of the first round (Pre-Series A)!
Our team is committed to providing our users with the best cryptocurrency options trading experience possible, and this funding will help us achieve that goal.
We are excited to continue exploring new opportunities and partnerships in the coming years and look forward to sharing our progress with you. Thank you for your continued support and we can’t wait to reveal the future of Greeks.live to you! 😀
We are happy to announce that Greeks.live has reached an agreement with the main investors of the first round (Pre-Series A)!
Our team is committed to providing our users with the best cryptocurrency options trading experience possible, and this funding will help us achieve that goal.
We are excited to continue exploring new opportunities and partnerships in the coming years and look forward to sharing our progress with you. Thank you for your continued support and we can’t wait to reveal the future of Greeks.live to you! 😀
See original
Essential for Investment, Major Events to Watch This Week (4/28-5/2)
This week has a lot of macro data, with the most important being Friday's non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data. In the three months since Trump took office, the U.S. economy and trade have been significantly impacted, and the U.S. stock market has shown relatively weak performance. However, there is no clear sign of recession in the economic data yet, and each major macro data release is worth paying attention to for potential black swan events.
🌟
Major Events This Week:
4/28 Monday
💼
Canada holds federal elections
4/29 Tuesday
💼
4/30 Wednesday
💼
U.S. March Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year (22:00)
💼
World Gold Council releases Q1 'Gold Demand Trends' report
5/1 Thursday
💼
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week (20:30)
💼
U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00)
💼
Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision and economic outlook
5/2 Friday
💼
U.S. April Unemployment Rate (20:30)
💼
U.S. April Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls (20:30)
Outlook for This Week:
Recently, implied volatility continues to decline, particularly with a noticeable decrease in the medium to short-term for BTC, nearing 45%. The market's expectations for future volatility are low. Although BTC prices are fluctuating around $95,000, the market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space is not high, and it can only be said that there is some improvement.
This week has a lot of macro data, with the most important being Friday's non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data. In the three months since Trump took office, the U.S. economy and trade have been significantly impacted, and the U.S. stock market has shown relatively weak performance. However, there is no clear sign of recession in the economic data yet, and each major macro data release is worth paying attention to for potential black swan events.
🌟
Major Events This Week:
4/28 Monday
💼
Canada holds federal elections
4/29 Tuesday
💼
4/30 Wednesday
💼
U.S. March Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year (22:00)
💼
World Gold Council releases Q1 'Gold Demand Trends' report
5/1 Thursday
💼
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week (20:30)
💼
U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00)
💼
Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision and economic outlook
5/2 Friday
💼
U.S. April Unemployment Rate (20:30)
💼
U.S. April Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls (20:30)
Outlook for This Week:
Recently, implied volatility continues to decline, particularly with a noticeable decrease in the medium to short-term for BTC, nearing 45%. The market's expectations for future volatility are low. Although BTC prices are fluctuating around $95,000, the market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space is not high, and it can only be said that there is some improvement.
See original
【April 25 Options Expiration Data】
78,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.75, maximum pain point is $86,000, notional value is $7.18 billion.
461,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.82, maximum pain point is $1,900, notional value is $820 million.
This week, Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded strongly, with the main term RV returning to over 55%, IV also returning to over 45%, and multiple term VRPs also back in positive territory, ending a month of negative values, which is rare for such a prolonged negative VRP. Trump's perceived weakness in the trade and tariff wars has given the market a lot of confidence, but market uncertainty will likely persist in the long term.
The delivery volume accounts for a quarter of the total open interest, with a high proportion of put options this month, reflecting the market's concerns about a downturn. However, as the market improves, the proportion of call options expiring in June has significantly increased, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the upcoming market trend.
78,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.75, maximum pain point is $86,000, notional value is $7.18 billion.
461,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.82, maximum pain point is $1,900, notional value is $820 million.
This week, Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded strongly, with the main term RV returning to over 55%, IV also returning to over 45%, and multiple term VRPs also back in positive territory, ending a month of negative values, which is rare for such a prolonged negative VRP. Trump's perceived weakness in the trade and tariff wars has given the market a lot of confidence, but market uncertainty will likely persist in the long term.
The delivery volume accounts for a quarter of the total open interest, with a high proportion of put options this month, reflecting the market's concerns about a downturn. However, as the market improves, the proportion of call options expiring in June has significantly increased, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the upcoming market trend.
See original
Essential for investment, major events this week preview (4/21-4/27)
There are quite a few macro events this week, but they are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. Trump's actions were limited last week, and this week, the latest developments in the tariff war are worth paying attention to, mainly in relation to U.S. stock trends. There have been few regulatory and policy developments related to cryptocurrency this month, and events concerning cryptocurrency itself are also relatively sparse; the trends in cryptocurrencies are highly correlated with U.S. stocks.
🌟
Major events this week:
4/21 Monday
🥚
Easter—Stock markets in Australia, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Hong Kong are closed
4/22 Tuesday
💼
IMF releases the "World Economic Outlook" report (21:00)
4/23 Wednesday
💼
Meeting of G20 finance and central bank ministers
4/24 Thursday
💼
The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions (2:00)
💼
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)
4/25 Friday
💼
Final consumer confidence index for April from the University of Michigan (22:00)
💼
The SEC holds the third cryptocurrency policy roundtable, focusing on custody issues
Outlook for this week:
Recent short-term volatility has significantly decreased, especially with BTC's mid to short-term all below 50%. RV has also dropped a lot. Although the BTC price has reached a new high in a month, risk aversion sentiment in the cryptocurrency space remains high, with bearish positions consistently accounting for over 20% of the trading volume.
There are quite a few macro events this week, but they are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. Trump's actions were limited last week, and this week, the latest developments in the tariff war are worth paying attention to, mainly in relation to U.S. stock trends. There have been few regulatory and policy developments related to cryptocurrency this month, and events concerning cryptocurrency itself are also relatively sparse; the trends in cryptocurrencies are highly correlated with U.S. stocks.
🌟
Major events this week:
4/21 Monday
🥚
Easter—Stock markets in Australia, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Hong Kong are closed
4/22 Tuesday
💼
IMF releases the "World Economic Outlook" report (21:00)
4/23 Wednesday
💼
Meeting of G20 finance and central bank ministers
4/24 Thursday
💼
The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions (2:00)
💼
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)
4/25 Friday
💼
Final consumer confidence index for April from the University of Michigan (22:00)
💼
The SEC holds the third cryptocurrency policy roundtable, focusing on custody issues
Outlook for this week:
Recent short-term volatility has significantly decreased, especially with BTC's mid to short-term all below 50%. RV has also dropped a lot. Although the BTC price has reached a new high in a month, risk aversion sentiment in the cryptocurrency space remains high, with bearish positions consistently accounting for over 20% of the trading volume.
See original
[April 18 Options Expiration Data]
23,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.96, maximum pain point is $82,000, notional value is $1.97 billion.
177,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.84, maximum pain point is $1,600, notional value is $280 million.
This week's market has calmed down a lot, and the news released by Trump this week was not significant, causing the market to cool down quickly. Currently, short-term RV is only 30%, and IV has also dropped significantly this week, falling below 40%. Medium to long-term RV is between 50% and 60%, and IV is concentrated around 50%. We expect that the trade war and tariff war are far from over, and market uncertainty will persist for a long time, along with prolonged market volatility.
The delivery volume accounts for less than 10% of the total open interest, and the PCR has recently remained at a high level, reflecting that the market's concerns about a decline clearly outweigh the expectations for an increase. The open interest for April and June options has remained around 25%, indicating a relatively stable market structure, with a high possibility of sideways movement. However, we are currently in a painful transition from bull to bear, and investor sentiment is relatively low. In this poor market condition of transition from bull to bear, the probability of a black swan event occurring will significantly increase, and buying some deep out-of-the-money puts would be a good choice.
23,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.96, maximum pain point is $82,000, notional value is $1.97 billion.
177,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.84, maximum pain point is $1,600, notional value is $280 million.
This week's market has calmed down a lot, and the news released by Trump this week was not significant, causing the market to cool down quickly. Currently, short-term RV is only 30%, and IV has also dropped significantly this week, falling below 40%. Medium to long-term RV is between 50% and 60%, and IV is concentrated around 50%. We expect that the trade war and tariff war are far from over, and market uncertainty will persist for a long time, along with prolonged market volatility.
The delivery volume accounts for less than 10% of the total open interest, and the PCR has recently remained at a high level, reflecting that the market's concerns about a decline clearly outweigh the expectations for an increase. The open interest for April and June options has remained around 25%, indicating a relatively stable market structure, with a high possibility of sideways movement. However, we are currently in a painful transition from bull to bear, and investor sentiment is relatively low. In this poor market condition of transition from bull to bear, the probability of a black swan event occurring will significantly increase, and buying some deep out-of-the-money puts would be a good choice.
See original
【April 4th Options Expiration Data】
26,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio at 1.24, maximum pain point at $84,000, nominal value of $2.2 billion.
220,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio at 1.42, maximum pain point at $1,850, nominal value of $400 million.
This week is the first expiration after the quarterly settlement. To smoothly get through the quarterly settlement, large holders have accumulated a significant number of put options this week. Subsequently, due to the market's weakness, these options were mostly held until expiration, and the final settlement price also closed near the maximum pain point.
The settlement volume accounted for more than 10% of the total open interest, with the largest open interest being in the June quarterly options. The trading and open interest ratio of put options is on the rise, and the market structure of open interest is showing subtle changes.
Implied volatility (IV) has maintained a high level, with BTC's main term volatility rising to over 50%, while ETH's main term volatility remains around 65%, both showing varying degrees of increase compared to last week, responding to the uncertainty brought by Trump and the US stock market to the global macro market.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market lacks new inflows and narratives, resulting in relatively low investor sentiment. In this poor market transition from bull to bear, the probability of a black swan event will significantly increase, and buying some deep out-of-the-money puts would be a good choice.
26,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio at 1.24, maximum pain point at $84,000, nominal value of $2.2 billion.
220,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio at 1.42, maximum pain point at $1,850, nominal value of $400 million.
This week is the first expiration after the quarterly settlement. To smoothly get through the quarterly settlement, large holders have accumulated a significant number of put options this week. Subsequently, due to the market's weakness, these options were mostly held until expiration, and the final settlement price also closed near the maximum pain point.
The settlement volume accounted for more than 10% of the total open interest, with the largest open interest being in the June quarterly options. The trading and open interest ratio of put options is on the rise, and the market structure of open interest is showing subtle changes.
Implied volatility (IV) has maintained a high level, with BTC's main term volatility rising to over 50%, while ETH's main term volatility remains around 65%, both showing varying degrees of increase compared to last week, responding to the uncertainty brought by Trump and the US stock market to the global macro market.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market lacks new inflows and narratives, resulting in relatively low investor sentiment. In this poor market transition from bull to bear, the probability of a black swan event will significantly increase, and buying some deep out-of-the-money puts would be a good choice.
See original
【Bitcoin Options Block Trade Daily】
Today's Largest Block Trade
Today's largest block trade was a bearish calendar spread on Bitcoin, with a volume of 635 BTC and a nominal value of $110 million. This is a typical institutional volatility curve trade, profiting from the differences in volatility between near-term and long-term options, as well as their differing time decay characteristics, both of which are relatively short-term.
Trader Expectations:
Short-term volatility is relatively overestimated
Bitcoin prices are not expected to fall significantly below 75000 before the near-month expiration
The volatility surface will tend to flatten
Other Blocks
Other blocks today were also primarily concentrated in the short term, with spreads for the current week occupying the vast majority. More often than not, these are market makers adjusting their risk exposure, and the actual premiums involved are not large. This is also a common phenomenon after quarterly settlements, where market makers operate relatively cautiously, making it easier for us to identify institutional views through observing block trades.
Today's Largest Block Trade
Today's largest block trade was a bearish calendar spread on Bitcoin, with a volume of 635 BTC and a nominal value of $110 million. This is a typical institutional volatility curve trade, profiting from the differences in volatility between near-term and long-term options, as well as their differing time decay characteristics, both of which are relatively short-term.
Trader Expectations:
Short-term volatility is relatively overestimated
Bitcoin prices are not expected to fall significantly below 75000 before the near-month expiration
The volatility surface will tend to flatten
Other Blocks
Other blocks today were also primarily concentrated in the short term, with spreads for the current week occupying the vast majority. More often than not, these are market makers adjusting their risk exposure, and the actual premiums involved are not large. This is also a common phenomenon after quarterly settlements, where market makers operate relatively cautiously, making it easier for us to identify institutional views through observing block trades.
See original
[Cryptocurrency Options Block Trade Daily]
Today's largest block trade
Today's largest option block trade is to buy a BTC put option with an expiration date of April 25, 2025 and an exercise price of $60,000. The cumulative transaction exceeded 1,000 BTC, with a nominal face value of nearly 100 million US dollars. Deep out-of-the-money is a low-cost extreme risk hedging or high-leverage speculation. Profits need to fall by more than 30% under the current circumstances.
The risk-return ratio of this transaction is relatively low, and the premium of more than 100,000 US dollars is more suitable as an "extreme risk hedging accessory" in the portfolio, rather than an independent speculative position.
More block trades
The quarterly delivery has just ended. At present, the main block trades are still mainly for building and adjusting positions. This month, institutions have significantly strengthened their layout of put options. Large investors are not optimistic about the market this month, and the deep out-of-the-money protective positions have obviously increased.
Today's largest block trade
Today's largest option block trade is to buy a BTC put option with an expiration date of April 25, 2025 and an exercise price of $60,000. The cumulative transaction exceeded 1,000 BTC, with a nominal face value of nearly 100 million US dollars. Deep out-of-the-money is a low-cost extreme risk hedging or high-leverage speculation. Profits need to fall by more than 30% under the current circumstances.
The risk-return ratio of this transaction is relatively low, and the premium of more than 100,000 US dollars is more suitable as an "extreme risk hedging accessory" in the portfolio, rather than an independent speculative position.
More block trades
The quarterly delivery has just ended. At present, the main block trades are still mainly for building and adjusting positions. This month, institutions have significantly strengthened their layout of put options. Large investors are not optimistic about the market this month, and the deep out-of-the-money protective positions have obviously increased.
See original
Essential for Bitcoin investment, major events to watch this week (3/31-4/6)
This week, the most noteworthy events are the unemployment rate and non-farm data on Friday. Additionally, the impact of President Trump's planned implementation of reciprocal tariffs on the macro market on Wednesday is also worth attention. Furthermore, the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Friday deserves attention as well. There is a certain level of uncertainty in this week's macro events, and cryptocurrencies are currently highly correlated with the US stock market, with the prices of major US tech giants influencing cryptocurrencies.
🌟
Major events this week:
4/1 Tuesday
💼
Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision (11:30)
💼
Eurozone March CPI preliminary value and February unemployment rate (17:00)
💼
US March ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00)
4/2 Wednesday
💼
US March ADP employment change (20:15)
💼
US President Trump's plan to implement reciprocal tariffs
4/3 Thursday
💼
European Central Bank President Lagarde speaks (1:00)
💼
European Central Bank releases March monetary policy meeting minutes (19:30)
💼
US initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)
4/4 Friday
💼
US March unemployment rate (20:30)
💼
US March non-farm payrolls (20:30)
💼
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks (23:30)
📌
Cryptocurrency market outlook:
The cryptocurrency market is relatively sluggish, and after the quarterly settlement, ETH has led a wave of market decline, with ETH likely to hit a new low since 2024. The volatility of mainstream coins is not significant; currently, the implied volatility of BTC is maintained above 50%. Market sentiment is relatively pessimistic, and it's a time that tests the patience of market participants.
This week, options trading will mainly revolve around the quarterly settlement, with not much worth noting. Short-term implied volatility will bear the pressure of margin release after the quarterly settlement and is expected to see a slight decline.
This week, the most noteworthy events are the unemployment rate and non-farm data on Friday. Additionally, the impact of President Trump's planned implementation of reciprocal tariffs on the macro market on Wednesday is also worth attention. Furthermore, the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Friday deserves attention as well. There is a certain level of uncertainty in this week's macro events, and cryptocurrencies are currently highly correlated with the US stock market, with the prices of major US tech giants influencing cryptocurrencies.
🌟
Major events this week:
4/1 Tuesday
💼
Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision (11:30)
💼
Eurozone March CPI preliminary value and February unemployment rate (17:00)
💼
US March ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00)
4/2 Wednesday
💼
US March ADP employment change (20:15)
💼
US President Trump's plan to implement reciprocal tariffs
4/3 Thursday
💼
European Central Bank President Lagarde speaks (1:00)
💼
European Central Bank releases March monetary policy meeting minutes (19:30)
💼
US initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)
4/4 Friday
💼
US March unemployment rate (20:30)
💼
US March non-farm payrolls (20:30)
💼
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks (23:30)
📌
Cryptocurrency market outlook:
The cryptocurrency market is relatively sluggish, and after the quarterly settlement, ETH has led a wave of market decline, with ETH likely to hit a new low since 2024. The volatility of mainstream coins is not significant; currently, the implied volatility of BTC is maintained above 50%. Market sentiment is relatively pessimistic, and it's a time that tests the patience of market participants.
This week, options trading will mainly revolve around the quarterly settlement, with not much worth noting. Short-term implied volatility will bear the pressure of margin release after the quarterly settlement and is expected to see a slight decline.
See original
【March 28th Options Expiration Data】
139,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.49, maximum pain point is $85,000, nominal value is $12.1 billion.
301,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.39, maximum pain point is $2,400, nominal value is $2.13 billion.
This week is the quarterly expiration, and the overall performance of the first quarter did not meet most people's expectations, with significant fluctuations during the period, ultimately closing at a relatively low position within the range.
The expiration volume accounts for more than 40% of the total open interest, with BTC options expiration volume accounting for nearly 80% of the total expiration volume, and ETH options expiration volume accounting for nearly 20% of the total expiration volume, while the largest among other cryptocurrencies, Sol, only accounted for 2%. Despite many doubts about ETH, the market structure of open interest remains intact.
Implied volatility (IV) has slightly decreased, with BTC's main tenor volatility falling below 50% overall, while ETH's main tenor volatility remains around 60%.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market lacks new capital inflows and new narratives, investor sentiment is starting to become sluggish, and after the quarterly expiration, short-term reversal signs are still not visible, with an increase in the actions of large holders selling both ways. Options market-making institutions have raised the intensity of selling again, and short-term IV still has room to decline, making it more difficult for buyers going forward.
139,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.49, maximum pain point is $85,000, nominal value is $12.1 billion.
301,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.39, maximum pain point is $2,400, nominal value is $2.13 billion.
This week is the quarterly expiration, and the overall performance of the first quarter did not meet most people's expectations, with significant fluctuations during the period, ultimately closing at a relatively low position within the range.
The expiration volume accounts for more than 40% of the total open interest, with BTC options expiration volume accounting for nearly 80% of the total expiration volume, and ETH options expiration volume accounting for nearly 20% of the total expiration volume, while the largest among other cryptocurrencies, Sol, only accounted for 2%. Despite many doubts about ETH, the market structure of open interest remains intact.
Implied volatility (IV) has slightly decreased, with BTC's main tenor volatility falling below 50% overall, while ETH's main tenor volatility remains around 60%.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market lacks new capital inflows and new narratives, investor sentiment is starting to become sluggish, and after the quarterly expiration, short-term reversal signs are still not visible, with an increase in the actions of large holders selling both ways. Options market-making institutions have raised the intensity of selling again, and short-term IV still has room to decline, making it more difficult for buyers going forward.
See original
Essential for Bitcoin investment, key events of the week preview (3/24-3/30)
The most noteworthy event this week is Friday's macro data; this week is a macro small week with not many events to pay attention to. The SEC chairman's qualification hearing on Thursday is also worth noting, as it may include content related to cryptocurrency.
🌟
Key events this week:
3/25 Tuesday
💼
Bank of England Governor Bailey gives a speech (2:00)
3/26 Wednesday
💼
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves announces the Spring Budget Statement (20:30)
3/27 Thursday
💼
2025 FOMC voting member, St. Louis Fed President Bullard gives a speech (1:00)
💼
ECB Executive Board member Panetta participates in the 11th Crypto Assets Conference panel discussion (1:40)
💼
US initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)
💼
US Senate holds qualification hearing for Paul Atkins as SEC Chairman
3/28 Friday
💼
US February Core PCE Price Index (20:30)
💼
US March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value (22:00)
💼
Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions from March monetary policy meeting
📌
Cryptocurrency market outlook:
The cryptocurrency market is relatively sluggish, with a single tweet from Trump boosting $trump by only 10%, indicating low market participation. Major cryptocurrencies show minimal volatility, with weekend implied volatility dropping to as low as 20%. Market participants can only patiently wait for opportunities, and market sentiment has turned relatively pessimistic.
In terms of options, the rapidly cooling market has driven down overall implied volatility, with next month's at-the-money implied volatility dropping to 45% and short-term implied volatility at multiple terms down to 40%. Recently, there have been no uncertainty events, combined with a dull market, making it impossible to maintain high implied volatility levels; selling long-term and buying short-term options is very cost-effective.
The most noteworthy event this week is Friday's macro data; this week is a macro small week with not many events to pay attention to. The SEC chairman's qualification hearing on Thursday is also worth noting, as it may include content related to cryptocurrency.
🌟
Key events this week:
3/25 Tuesday
💼
Bank of England Governor Bailey gives a speech (2:00)
3/26 Wednesday
💼
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves announces the Spring Budget Statement (20:30)
3/27 Thursday
💼
2025 FOMC voting member, St. Louis Fed President Bullard gives a speech (1:00)
💼
ECB Executive Board member Panetta participates in the 11th Crypto Assets Conference panel discussion (1:40)
💼
US initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)
💼
US Senate holds qualification hearing for Paul Atkins as SEC Chairman
3/28 Friday
💼
US February Core PCE Price Index (20:30)
💼
US March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value (22:00)
💼
Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions from March monetary policy meeting
📌
Cryptocurrency market outlook:
The cryptocurrency market is relatively sluggish, with a single tweet from Trump boosting $trump by only 10%, indicating low market participation. Major cryptocurrencies show minimal volatility, with weekend implied volatility dropping to as low as 20%. Market participants can only patiently wait for opportunities, and market sentiment has turned relatively pessimistic.
In terms of options, the rapidly cooling market has driven down overall implied volatility, with next month's at-the-money implied volatility dropping to 45% and short-term implied volatility at multiple terms down to 40%. Recently, there have been no uncertainty events, combined with a dull market, making it impossible to maintain high implied volatility levels; selling long-term and buying short-term options is very cost-effective.
See original
【March 21 Options Expiration Data】
22,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.84, maximum pain point $85,000, notional value $1.83 billion.
133,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.62, maximum pain point $2,000, notional value $260 million.
The market was relatively flat this week, with total options expiration volume decreasing by nearly half, and short-term implied volatility (IV) significantly declining. BTC's medium to short-term volatility has completely fallen below 50%, while ETH's medium to short-term volatility has also returned to around 60%, with short-term volatility nearly halved.
Cryptocurrency has entered a state of free oscillation and sideways movement, investor sentiment is starting to become sluggish, and as the quarter's expiration approaches, large traders generally focus on stability at this time.
Options market makers have resumed increasing the intensity of selling and tightening IV, which is betting on future short-term sideways movement. Recently, there haven’t been many significant events in cryptocurrency, and uncertainty has greatly decreased, allowing market makers to seize the opportunity to recover profits, making it relatively difficult for buyers over the past two weeks.
22,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.84, maximum pain point $85,000, notional value $1.83 billion.
133,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.62, maximum pain point $2,000, notional value $260 million.
The market was relatively flat this week, with total options expiration volume decreasing by nearly half, and short-term implied volatility (IV) significantly declining. BTC's medium to short-term volatility has completely fallen below 50%, while ETH's medium to short-term volatility has also returned to around 60%, with short-term volatility nearly halved.
Cryptocurrency has entered a state of free oscillation and sideways movement, investor sentiment is starting to become sluggish, and as the quarter's expiration approaches, large traders generally focus on stability at this time.
Options market makers have resumed increasing the intensity of selling and tightening IV, which is betting on future short-term sideways movement. Recently, there haven’t been many significant events in cryptocurrency, and uncertainty has greatly decreased, allowing market makers to seize the opportunity to recover profits, making it relatively difficult for buyers over the past two weeks.
See original
🚨Today's In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Options Block Trades🚨
Today's large orders are still concentrated on Bitcoin blocks.
Market Sentiment: Multiple large spread options and calendar options, all for repositioning or closing positions, indicate that large investors have set up some directional positions, but the total volume is not large, or institutional investors are tentatively assessing the market situation.
Trading Strategy: There are many spread options and calendar options with dispersed directional prices, both the directional and time values are relatively low, indicating that some investors are optimistic about market stability, and there is a clear divergence of market views.
Risk Management: Both spread options and calendar options are relatively low-risk strategies.
Summary: Today's block trades show an increasing divergence in market views on cryptocurrency prices, with tentative positioning occurring and a clear division in market sentiment.
📊
Track smart money movements to gain insights into market opportunities! #OptionsBlock #Bitcoin #VolatilityTrading
Today's large orders are still concentrated on Bitcoin blocks.
Market Sentiment: Multiple large spread options and calendar options, all for repositioning or closing positions, indicate that large investors have set up some directional positions, but the total volume is not large, or institutional investors are tentatively assessing the market situation.
Trading Strategy: There are many spread options and calendar options with dispersed directional prices, both the directional and time values are relatively low, indicating that some investors are optimistic about market stability, and there is a clear divergence of market views.
Risk Management: Both spread options and calendar options are relatively low-risk strategies.
Summary: Today's block trades show an increasing divergence in market views on cryptocurrency prices, with tentative positioning occurring and a clear division in market sentiment.
📊
Track smart money movements to gain insights into market opportunities! #OptionsBlock #Bitcoin #VolatilityTrading
See original
Essential for Bitcoin investment, key events this week preview (3/17-3/23)
The most noteworthy event this week is the series of interest rate decisions on March 20. Although the expectations for the decisions from various central banks are largely consistent and unlikely to cause significant market fluctuations, the attitudes displayed by each central bank will have a noticeable impact on the future. Currently, geopolitical tensions are high, and with increasing compliance requirements, Europe’s influence is gradually strengthening.
Additionally, Tuesday’s special meeting is also worth noting, as Trump has been full of unexpected maneuvers since taking office. The recent cryptocurrency market has been relatively calm, with BSC meme standing out, but its sustainability needs further observation.
🌟
Key events this week:
3/17 Monday
💼
U.S. February Sales Monthly Rate (20:30)
💼
CME plans to launch SOL futures
3/18 Tuesday
💼
Canada February CPI (20:30)
💼
U.S. President Trump talks with Russian President Putin
3/19 Wednesday
💼
Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision
3/20 Thursday
💼
Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic outlook summary (2:00)
💼
Swiss National Bank announces interest rate decision (16:30)
💼
Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes (20:00)
💼
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (21:30)
3/21 Friday
💼
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks (1:00)
💼
FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams speaks (21:00)
📌
Cryptocurrency market outlook:
The cryptocurrency market has been relatively calm recently, with Bitcoin continuing to adjust in the fluctuation zone above $80,000. U.S. stocks are experiencing significant adjustments, and ETF funds have not been able to sustain inflows, leading to continued pessimism in market sentiment.
In terms of options, the weakening market has driven a decline in implied volatility across all maturities, with this month's at-the-money implied volatility dropping below 55%. Short-term implied volatility has decreased more significantly, now at 60%. Several macro events this week will bring some uncertainty, and the weekly implied volatility will likely remain at a relatively high level, making selling a potentially better option.
📌
Regarding the cryptocurrency interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, with opportunities for active trades on suitable interest rate orders, especially when there is market activity worth special attention.
The most noteworthy event this week is the series of interest rate decisions on March 20. Although the expectations for the decisions from various central banks are largely consistent and unlikely to cause significant market fluctuations, the attitudes displayed by each central bank will have a noticeable impact on the future. Currently, geopolitical tensions are high, and with increasing compliance requirements, Europe’s influence is gradually strengthening.
Additionally, Tuesday’s special meeting is also worth noting, as Trump has been full of unexpected maneuvers since taking office. The recent cryptocurrency market has been relatively calm, with BSC meme standing out, but its sustainability needs further observation.
🌟
Key events this week:
3/17 Monday
💼
U.S. February Sales Monthly Rate (20:30)
💼
CME plans to launch SOL futures
3/18 Tuesday
💼
Canada February CPI (20:30)
💼
U.S. President Trump talks with Russian President Putin
3/19 Wednesday
💼
Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision
3/20 Thursday
💼
Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic outlook summary (2:00)
💼
Swiss National Bank announces interest rate decision (16:30)
💼
Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes (20:00)
💼
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (21:30)
3/21 Friday
💼
Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaks (1:00)
💼
FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams speaks (21:00)
📌
Cryptocurrency market outlook:
The cryptocurrency market has been relatively calm recently, with Bitcoin continuing to adjust in the fluctuation zone above $80,000. U.S. stocks are experiencing significant adjustments, and ETF funds have not been able to sustain inflows, leading to continued pessimism in market sentiment.
In terms of options, the weakening market has driven a decline in implied volatility across all maturities, with this month's at-the-money implied volatility dropping below 55%. Short-term implied volatility has decreased more significantly, now at 60%. Several macro events this week will bring some uncertainty, and the weekly implied volatility will likely remain at a relatively high level, making selling a potentially better option.
📌
Regarding the cryptocurrency interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, with opportunities for active trades on suitable interest rate orders, especially when there is market activity worth special attention.
See original
March 7 Options Expiration Data
26,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio at 0.72, maximum pain point at $89,000, notional value of $2.36 billion.
215,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio at 0.73, maximum pain point at $2,300, notional value of $490 million.
The market experienced extreme volatility this week, with President Trump demonstrating his unparalleled influence on cryptocurrency, implied volatility (IV) soared, and BTC's short-term volatility remained at 90%, while ETH's short-term volatility even broke through 110%.
The market's panic sentiment towards the short-term trend of cryptocurrencies is spreading, and investor sentiment is very sensitive. Trump's statements are the only hot topic in the market right now, while other sectors are relatively dull.
Options market-making institutions have recently continued to relax their selling intensity, allowing IV to rise, which is also a form of hedging behavior. The uncertainty in cryptocurrency is too great, and market makers need more space to ensure profits; in contrast, buyers have made significant profits in the past two weeks.
26,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio at 0.72, maximum pain point at $89,000, notional value of $2.36 billion.
215,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio at 0.73, maximum pain point at $2,300, notional value of $490 million.
The market experienced extreme volatility this week, with President Trump demonstrating his unparalleled influence on cryptocurrency, implied volatility (IV) soared, and BTC's short-term volatility remained at 90%, while ETH's short-term volatility even broke through 110%.
The market's panic sentiment towards the short-term trend of cryptocurrencies is spreading, and investor sentiment is very sensitive. Trump's statements are the only hot topic in the market right now, while other sectors are relatively dull.
Options market-making institutions have recently continued to relax their selling intensity, allowing IV to rise, which is also a form of hedging behavior. The uncertainty in cryptocurrency is too great, and market makers need more space to ensure profits; in contrast, buyers have made significant profits in the past two weeks.
See original
Essential for Bitcoin investment, major events to watch this week (3/3-3/9)
The most noteworthy event this week is the cryptocurrency summit to be held in the United States on March 7, where Trump's every move significantly influences the cryptocurrency market.
This week is a macro week, with market-influencing news almost every day. This Friday, in addition to the crypto summit, there are two significant data points: unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls, which are very much worth paying attention to. Moreover, the U.S. is about to switch to daylight saving time, making it more convenient to monitor the market. On Tuesday, Trump's tariff policy on Canada and Mexico comes into effect, and there are important economic events on several other days, providing rare trading opportunities driven by events.
🌟
Major events this week:
3/3 Monday
💼 U.S. February ISM Manufacturing PMI (23:00)
3/4 Tuesday
💼 Reserve Bank of Australia releases minutes of February monetary policy meeting (8:30)
💼 U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico
💼 U.S. President Trump is invited to deliver his first speech in Congress
3/5 Wednesday
💼 U.S. February ADP Employment Change (21:15)
3/6 Thursday
💼 Federal Reserve releases Economic Conditions Beige Book (3:00)
💼 European Central Bank announces interest rate decision (21:15)
💼 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (21:30)
💼 ECB President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference (21:45)
3/7 Friday
💼 U.S. February Unemployment Rate (21:30)
💼 U.S. February seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (21:30)
💼 U.S. President Trump hosts the cryptocurrency summit at the White House
📌 Cryptocurrency market outlook:
The cryptocurrency market rebounded sharply over the weekend, as one tweet from Trump reversed the low market sentiment that had persisted for days, with Bitcoin returning to the $94,000 fluctuation zone. The sudden market changes caught participants off guard, shifting sentiment from extremely pessimistic to extremely optimistic.
In terms of options, the volatile market has pushed the implied volatility (IV) across all tenors up, with the current month's at-the-money IV rebounding to 55% and short-term IV soaring to 70%. The extreme market movements and multiple economic events this week are likely to keep IV at a relatively high level, but buying options is still very cost-effective.
📌
Regarding the cryptocurrency interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, and suitable interest rate orders can be actively executed, especially when there is market activity worth paying special attention to.
The most noteworthy event this week is the cryptocurrency summit to be held in the United States on March 7, where Trump's every move significantly influences the cryptocurrency market.
This week is a macro week, with market-influencing news almost every day. This Friday, in addition to the crypto summit, there are two significant data points: unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls, which are very much worth paying attention to. Moreover, the U.S. is about to switch to daylight saving time, making it more convenient to monitor the market. On Tuesday, Trump's tariff policy on Canada and Mexico comes into effect, and there are important economic events on several other days, providing rare trading opportunities driven by events.
🌟
Major events this week:
3/3 Monday
💼 U.S. February ISM Manufacturing PMI (23:00)
3/4 Tuesday
💼 Reserve Bank of Australia releases minutes of February monetary policy meeting (8:30)
💼 U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico
💼 U.S. President Trump is invited to deliver his first speech in Congress
3/5 Wednesday
💼 U.S. February ADP Employment Change (21:15)
3/6 Thursday
💼 Federal Reserve releases Economic Conditions Beige Book (3:00)
💼 European Central Bank announces interest rate decision (21:15)
💼 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (21:30)
💼 ECB President Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference (21:45)
3/7 Friday
💼 U.S. February Unemployment Rate (21:30)
💼 U.S. February seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (21:30)
💼 U.S. President Trump hosts the cryptocurrency summit at the White House
📌 Cryptocurrency market outlook:
The cryptocurrency market rebounded sharply over the weekend, as one tweet from Trump reversed the low market sentiment that had persisted for days, with Bitcoin returning to the $94,000 fluctuation zone. The sudden market changes caught participants off guard, shifting sentiment from extremely pessimistic to extremely optimistic.
In terms of options, the volatile market has pushed the implied volatility (IV) across all tenors up, with the current month's at-the-money IV rebounding to 55% and short-term IV soaring to 70%. The extreme market movements and multiple economic events this week are likely to keep IV at a relatively high level, but buying options is still very cost-effective.
📌
Regarding the cryptocurrency interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, and suitable interest rate orders can be actively executed, especially when there is market activity worth paying special attention to.
See original
【February 28th Options Expiration Data】
59,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.7, maximum pain point at $96,000, notional value of $4.66 billion.
529,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.52, maximum pain point at $3,000, notional value of $1.12 billion.
This week the market is on the brink of collapse, influenced by the sharp decline in U.S. stocks and several security incidents, the market has significantly fallen under the leadership of mainstream coins, implied volatility (IV) soared, especially the short-term volatility of BTC once climbed to 90%, while the short-term volatility of ETH directly broke through 100%.
Market panic is spreading, as mentioned earlier this month, institutions generally believe that February will be a time with no market activity, and indeed the market seems to really lack hotspots and funds. Large options traders have been continuously selling medium to short-term call options for nearly a month, and smart money has won again.
59,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.7, maximum pain point at $96,000, notional value of $4.66 billion.
529,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.52, maximum pain point at $3,000, notional value of $1.12 billion.
This week the market is on the brink of collapse, influenced by the sharp decline in U.S. stocks and several security incidents, the market has significantly fallen under the leadership of mainstream coins, implied volatility (IV) soared, especially the short-term volatility of BTC once climbed to 90%, while the short-term volatility of ETH directly broke through 100%.
Market panic is spreading, as mentioned earlier this month, institutions generally believe that February will be a time with no market activity, and indeed the market seems to really lack hotspots and funds. Large options traders have been continuously selling medium to short-term call options for nearly a month, and smart money has won again.
See original
Greeks.Live Chinese Community Daily Briefing
=====
Release Date: 2025-02-26
Overall Market Sentiment
=====
The market generally shows a bearish sentiment, believing that the rebound is weak, and BTC may further decline to below 80,000, with some opinions suggesting it will follow last year's volatile trend. Multiple traders have pointed out that it has currently broken below the M top, and there are risks in the mid-term direction. At the same time, the record net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs has intensified bearish sentiment.
Hot Topics
=====
• Options traders are discussing the current market volatility performance, which has been abnormal. Despite the sharp drop, the volatility of medium to long-term options has not effectively increased. This may indicate that the market expects this to be a one-time drop rather than a trend reversal.
• Traders have observed that the gamma distribution of ETH is very strong around 2500, with negative gamma dispersion, expecting low volatility in the near term.
• There is a heated discussion about DVOL (Volatility Index), with professionals pointing out that insufficient liquidity is the main issue. There are suggestions to introduce perpetual DVOL to increase liquidity, but it also faces technical challenges in index design and risk management.
=====
Release Date: 2025-02-26
Overall Market Sentiment
=====
The market generally shows a bearish sentiment, believing that the rebound is weak, and BTC may further decline to below 80,000, with some opinions suggesting it will follow last year's volatile trend. Multiple traders have pointed out that it has currently broken below the M top, and there are risks in the mid-term direction. At the same time, the record net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs has intensified bearish sentiment.
Hot Topics
=====
• Options traders are discussing the current market volatility performance, which has been abnormal. Despite the sharp drop, the volatility of medium to long-term options has not effectively increased. This may indicate that the market expects this to be a one-time drop rather than a trend reversal.
• Traders have observed that the gamma distribution of ETH is very strong around 2500, with negative gamma dispersion, expecting low volatility in the near term.
• There is a heated discussion about DVOL (Volatility Index), with professionals pointing out that insufficient liquidity is the main issue. There are suggestions to introduce perpetual DVOL to increase liquidity, but it also faces technical challenges in index design and risk management.
See original
Greeks.Live English Community Daily Briefing
=====
Release Date: 2025-02-26
Overall Market Sentiment
=====
Group members generally hold a bearish attitude, as Bitcoin plummeted from over $100,000 to a low of $80,000. Traders describe this as a "crisis spreading." Key observation price levels include $86,000 as a critical support level. If this level is broken, many believe a "vacuum zone" will appear below until the range of $72,000-$77,000, with some members even expecting a further drop to $65,000.
Market Rebound Analysis
=====
• The market experienced a single-day drop of $6,000, accompanied by a large number of forced liquidations, resulting in significant losses for most traders in the group, with some reporting losses of 5-6 figures.
• Several traders believe this round of selling is controlled and may be coming from a "stealth" large seller, who needs to complete the sell-off before any meaningful rebound occurs.
• Despite the bleak market, some members cautiously look for a potential range that may form between $85,000-$90,000, with $89,000-$91,000 seen as levels that could provide some breathing space if reclaimed.
• A minority view sees this as a buying opportunity, closely monitoring large buy orders at the levels of $77,000 and $72,000, regarded as potential bottoming areas.
=====
Release Date: 2025-02-26
Overall Market Sentiment
=====
Group members generally hold a bearish attitude, as Bitcoin plummeted from over $100,000 to a low of $80,000. Traders describe this as a "crisis spreading." Key observation price levels include $86,000 as a critical support level. If this level is broken, many believe a "vacuum zone" will appear below until the range of $72,000-$77,000, with some members even expecting a further drop to $65,000.
Market Rebound Analysis
=====
• The market experienced a single-day drop of $6,000, accompanied by a large number of forced liquidations, resulting in significant losses for most traders in the group, with some reporting losses of 5-6 figures.
• Several traders believe this round of selling is controlled and may be coming from a "stealth" large seller, who needs to complete the sell-off before any meaningful rebound occurs.
• Despite the bleak market, some members cautiously look for a potential range that may form between $85,000-$90,000, with $89,000-$91,000 seen as levels that could provide some breathing space if reclaimed.
• A minority view sees this as a buying opportunity, closely monitoring large buy orders at the levels of $77,000 and $72,000, regarded as potential bottoming areas.
See original
Essential for Bitcoin investment, major events this week to watch (2/24-3/2)
This week's macro events are still relatively few, the G20 central bank finance ministers meeting is worth paying attention to, but overall the impact is limited. In the crypto sector, the follow-up handling of Bybit's theft will still be the main theme this week, and the attention on ETH has significantly increased. There are more opportunities for trading ETH or BTC-ETH pairs this week, all worth watching. The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) has come into full effect, and compliant exchanges like Kraken are gradually delisting USDT and other stablecoins in Europe.
🌟
Major events this week:
2/24 Monday
💼
CME plans to launch cash-settled options for Bitcoin Friday futures
2/26 Wednesday
💼
G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting
💼
Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks (0:45)
💼
2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on inflation (2:00)
2/27 Thursday
💼
2027 FOMC voting member, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook and housing market (1:00)
💼
European Central Bank releases January monetary policy meeting minutes (20:30)
💼
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (21:30)
2/28 Friday
💼
2026 FOMC voting member, Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks on economic outlook (4:15)
💼
U.S. January core PCE price index year-on-year (21:30)
📌
Crypto market outlook: The crypto market continues to be sluggish, with Bitcoin fluctuating below $100,000. Bybit's $1.4 billion ETH theft needs to be bought back from the market, and the probability of a mild rise in ETH is considerable. You can sell some puts or directly buy calls to capture some market dividends. In terms of options, implied volatility (IV) continues to decline across all durations, with the at-the-money IV for the current month dropping to 40%. ETH's IV has not increased, making it relatively cost-effective to go long with options.
📌
In the crypto interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, and suitable interest rate orders can be actively traded, especially worth noting when there is market movement.
This week's macro events are still relatively few, the G20 central bank finance ministers meeting is worth paying attention to, but overall the impact is limited. In the crypto sector, the follow-up handling of Bybit's theft will still be the main theme this week, and the attention on ETH has significantly increased. There are more opportunities for trading ETH or BTC-ETH pairs this week, all worth watching. The EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) has come into full effect, and compliant exchanges like Kraken are gradually delisting USDT and other stablecoins in Europe.
🌟
Major events this week:
2/24 Monday
💼
CME plans to launch cash-settled options for Bitcoin Friday futures
2/26 Wednesday
💼
G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting
💼
Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks (0:45)
💼
2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on inflation (2:00)
2/27 Thursday
💼
2027 FOMC voting member, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook and housing market (1:00)
💼
European Central Bank releases January monetary policy meeting minutes (20:30)
💼
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (21:30)
2/28 Friday
💼
2026 FOMC voting member, Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks on economic outlook (4:15)
💼
U.S. January core PCE price index year-on-year (21:30)
📌
Crypto market outlook: The crypto market continues to be sluggish, with Bitcoin fluctuating below $100,000. Bybit's $1.4 billion ETH theft needs to be bought back from the market, and the probability of a mild rise in ETH is considerable. You can sell some puts or directly buy calls to capture some market dividends. In terms of options, implied volatility (IV) continues to decline across all durations, with the at-the-money IV for the current month dropping to 40%. ETH's IV has not increased, making it relatively cost-effective to go long with options.
📌
In the crypto interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, and suitable interest rate orders can be actively traded, especially worth noting when there is market movement.
Login to explore more contents