[April 18 Options Expiration Data]

23,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.96, maximum pain point is $82,000, notional value is $1.97 billion.

177,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.84, maximum pain point is $1,600, notional value is $280 million.

This week's market has calmed down a lot, and the news released by Trump this week was not significant, causing the market to cool down quickly. Currently, short-term RV is only 30%, and IV has also dropped significantly this week, falling below 40%. Medium to long-term RV is between 50% and 60%, and IV is concentrated around 50%. We expect that the trade war and tariff war are far from over, and market uncertainty will persist for a long time, along with prolonged market volatility.

The delivery volume accounts for less than 10% of the total open interest, and the PCR has recently remained at a high level, reflecting that the market's concerns about a decline clearly outweigh the expectations for an increase. The open interest for April and June options has remained around 25%, indicating a relatively stable market structure, with a high possibility of sideways movement. However, we are currently in a painful transition from bull to bear, and investor sentiment is relatively low. In this poor market condition of transition from bull to bear, the probability of a black swan event occurring will significantly increase, and buying some deep out-of-the-money puts would be a good choice.