东晨

Every year after the Bitcoin halving, there will be a crazy bull market!

Halving in 2012, and a wild rise in 2013!

Halving in 2016, and another wild rise in 2017!

Halving in 2020, and another wild rise in 2021!

So, halving in 2024, what will happen in 2025? Let us wait and see, looking forward to another amazing bull market!

In terms of the overall market direction for this week, if there are positive developments after April 2nd, I predict the market will start to rebound on the 2nd. The major resistance levels above are still in the range of 90,000-91,000-95,000-96,000.

A large position will have to wait for the water decision on the 2nd before placing bets.

Looking further ahead, I believe that April will definitely see at least one rebound that is not less than the rebound in March. The only thing is, if there is negative news on April 2nd, then there will be an increase after April 10th; if there is positive news on April 2nd, then it will begin to rise on the 2nd according to the expectations mentioned above.

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Pump is developing its own #AMM liquidity pool, currently undergoing testing, aiming to gradually transition pump coins into their own pool instead of Raydium, allowing them to collect more fees on $Solana, or adopting some mechanism to reward token holders. This is the first test token added to their AMM liquidity pool.

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Lethe is a new way to send, give or exchange gifts privately on Solana, allowing you to send private transactions to anyone. Only you and the recipient can view the amount of the gift, and the recipient can unblock it at any time. By blocking, you can privately protect your Solana in a smart contract and send it to any wallet you want

Important economic data will be released at 9:30 PM tonight, mainly including the unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data. These two indicators have a significant impact on the market and are worth paying close attention to.

This week's market has been in a narrow range of fluctuations, with no significant ups or downs. Bitcoin prices have been fluctuating between $95,000 and $99,000.

Tonight's data is crucial; if it meets expectations, the market may experience a surge. The market has been consolidating at low levels for a long time and needs some stimulating factors to drive an increase. However, caution is still required; if the data is not ideal, the market may continue to decline and undergo further washing out.

In 2024, institutions purchased 1 million bitcoins from individuals, of which 400,000 were bought by ETFs and another 400,000 were acquired by MicroStrategy. Currently, MicroStrategy is still continuing to increase its holdings, and more enterprises and institutions are waiting for the right moment to allocate bitcoin. Against this backdrop, the stock of bitcoin on exchanges will accelerate its outflow, and the price of bitcoin is expected to experience sustained rapid growth in the coming years.

Why do some people always like to put all their money on one coin?

The reason why many people like to fully invest in one coin is that they have a high degree of trust in this coin. If you occasionally fully invest, it may be due to your strong optimism and recognition of the coin, but if you fully invest every time, it is actually more like a gambling mentality. The hope of making a lot of money in one go is often driven by greed. Relying on this method to quickly increase value reflects a mentality of quick success and instant benefits. Such people often pursue immediate short-term interests and behave like low-level gamblers. High-level gamblers are different. They have a longer-term vision and focus on long-term stable returns rather than temporary huge profits.

When you master the wisdom of being in cash, learn to patiently wait, and only act decisively under conditions of high certainty, even if you miss seemingly tempting market opportunities without regret, then you have the ability to make a living through trading. At the very least, earning a little money to solve basic needs is no longer a problem. As for whether you can go further, it depends on personal insight and social circles. My years of trading experience tell me that this calm and composed mindset is the key to success.

The rise and fall of altcoins show a clear differentiation:

Strong coins: These coins have recovered from their declines or have hardly seen any drop, such as DOGE, XDC, ENA, SUI, OM, HBAR, PAXG, COW.

Moderately retraced coins: These coins have fallen about 40%-50% from their highs, such as PEPE, DOT, AVAX, MNT, RAY, ENS, LINK, XLM, TON.

Completely retraced coins: These coins have dropped back to their starting points of increase, such as APT, KAS, STX, ARB, AEVO, WIF, STRK, ORDI.

Based on this simple judgment logic, choose those strong coins that you are optimistic about.

Remember, focus on strong coins, not weak ones. The strong will remain strong; you should concentrate your funds, energy, and time on some strong coins.

Looking back at the first peak of the last bull market, it occurred on April 14, 2021. That day coincided with the listing of COIN, and it was also the time when the big cake peaked in stages. After that, the 418 and 519 events occurred. Therefore, before this wave of good news has not been fully realized, according to historical trends, there is a high probability that the big cake will have a wave of high-level market, which may become everyone's last chance to reduce their positions. Especially those friends who have heavy positions and have not made profits in time can consider reducing their positions around the 20th of this month, because from the 20th to the end of the month, there may be a more rapid decline. At present, this is just a prediction. When the market is established, remember not to be greedy, make profits in time, and be cautious. It is expected that around the Spring Festival, that is, around the 28th, the big cake may enter an adjustment period. After the Spring Festival, that is, in early February, consider entering the market to buy at the bottom, and strive to catch the last wave of gains in 2025.

BTC rebounded after falling to around 91750 last night, reaching a maximum of 94650, but was unable to break through and subsequently began to pull back. The area around 94500 is an important technical level; after a rebound of nearly 3000 points, it pulled back again, with the price falling to around 91500, hitting a low of 91055 before stabilizing and rebounding. Currently, BTC has not been able to break through and stabilize above 96000, and the price may continue to consolidate within the range.

BTC's short-term key levels for the day: resistance levels at 93300, 94600, and support levels at 91700, 91000.

ETH's movement yesterday was similar to BTC's, rebounding after retesting the key support around 3200, reaching a maximum rebound of around 3330, followed by a pullback, hitting a low of 3156, with a pullback of about 170 points.

ETH's short-term key levels for the day: resistance levels at 3270, 3350, and support levels at 3200, 3150, with operational advice leaning towards buying on dips after pullbacks.

Pay close attention to tonight's non-farm payroll data, as the data release may have a significant impact on the market.

Recently, when there was a rebound, you all said that the imitation season was coming. I said we need to wait a bit; it takes time to accumulate and digest. Now that the market has retreated, you say the bear market has arrived, and the imitation season will not come again.

Investing needs to break free from the influence of market emotions; one must be able to keenly sense market sentiments while also maintaining independent judgment outside of those emotions.

Contrarian thinking: Opportunities often lie hidden within crises.

Grayscale Fund Adjusts Configuration Again! Recently, Grayscale updated the asset weights of its four funds, adding four tokens including SUI, CRV, ADA, and LPT, while removing SNX and AVAX.

The key point is: Grayscale's decentralized AI fund has included LPT, and the current composition of this fund includes: NEAR, RENDER, TAO, FIL, GRT, and LPT (sorted by weight from high to low).

BTC gradually declined from a high point near 96,000 last night, rebounding after hitting a low of 92,500, with the highest rebound reaching 95,300 before pulling back again. The current intraday resistance levels are at 95,300 and 96,200. If it breaks through 96,200, it may further rise to around 97,300. Support levels to watch are 93,500 and 92,500, with strong support at 91,500.

ETH retreated from a high of around 3,380 yesterday, dropping to a low of 3,200, and then quickly rebounding to 3,300. The 3,200 level is a key support that was not broken in the last drop, hence the rebound was relatively quick. Currently, Ethereum is still oscillating in the range of 3,300-3,350, with support levels at 3,200 and 3,100, where there is strong support every 100 points down; resistance levels above are at 3,400, 3,500, 3,650, and 3,740.

For trading suggestions on Ethereum, it's recommended to buy on dips and look for support points to enter, while managing position sizes properly. From a smaller time frame perspective, Ethereum is relatively stronger than Bitcoin, at least for now it has remained stable around 3,300 and has not broken down.

U.S. stocks opened high last night and then gradually retreated, dropping as much as 200 points, but quickly rebounded, nearly recovering the losses by the close, with overall small fluctuations.

Tonight, U.S. stock markets are closed, which will reduce market liquidity and there will be fewer trading opportunities in the short term.