The Future of Structural Bull Markets and the Altcoin Market

1. Constraints of Monetary Policy

Unlike the overall surge in 2021 when the Federal Reserve implemented near-zero or even negative interest rate policies, flooding the market with funds and driving up altcoin prices, the current Federal Reserve maintains a 4% interest rate, leading capital to prefer risk-free investment tools rather than altcoins.

2. Tightening of Crypto Market Regulations

The regulation of the crypto market in the United States is gradually improving, with most altcoin operations facing legal restrictions, reducing the space for market manipulation. In this environment, the previous model of frantically pushing prices is hard to replicate, and price increases are constrained.

3. The Concentration Effect of Institutional Funds

This round of market activity is more driven by institutions, with the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs becoming the focus, leading to capital concentration in Bitcoin. The altcoin market, on the other hand, faces a battle for existing funds, making it difficult to follow Bitcoin's rise, and it may even experience a general decline.

In the future, the market is more likely to see a structural bull market and rotation among altcoins, rather than the overall surge seen in the past.

Investment Logic and Misconceptions in the Primary Market

The primary market has attracted many participants, but the probability of success is extremely low. Some share returns of hundreds or even thousands of times on social media, leading to a wave of follow-up investments, yet most end up with losses.

The Essence of Low Win Rate Markets

The primary market is similar to entrepreneurship, where nine out of ten projects may fail, coexisting with low win rates and high returns. Just as Liu Qiangdong initially lost everything when opening a restaurant, he eventually founded JD.com and achieved success after continuous entrepreneurial failures.

Investment Mindset and Risk Control

Successful individuals are often able to endure failures, manage risks, and prepare for long-term trial and error. They can accept consecutive losses, as one success can lead to significant profits. In contrast, most people cannot tolerate consecutive losses and typically exit the market after a few losses.

The Importance of Financial Strength and Position Management

Successful investors often have strong financial strength and position management abilities:

Financial Strength: Having enough capital for multiple rounds of trial and error, allowing persistence until the next opportunity even in the face of consecutive losses.

Position Management: Not over-investing in a favored project, but rather reducing risk and increasing error tolerance through diversification.

In contrast, retail investors often lack capital and risk management awareness, making it easy for them to go bankrupt after a few losses.

Information Acquisition and Team Collaboration

Successful investors typically possess solid market research abilities and information channels, conducting in-depth project research through teamwork. This advantage enables them to navigate the primary market more adeptly.

Core Difference: Level of Understanding

Most people enter the primary market with a gambling mentality, lacking long-term strategies and risk awareness. Instead of hoping for overnight wealth, it is better to build a solid cognitive system and master necessary investment strategies and skills to remain invulnerable in the market.