区块链阿政
公众号：阿政的价值投资
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It is expected that starting in May, large funds will continue to flow in, and the buying pressure for Bitcoin will be very strong, with a potential to hit over $100,000.
The upcoming market themes:
✅ May: Speculation on June rate cut expectations
✅ June-July: Trump tax cut expectations
✅ Later: The Federal Reserve slows down balance sheet reduction
Q3 and Q4 will be the real big market!
Currently, the AI concept is hot, combined with meme narratives, the market themes are becoming increasingly clear. Remember: Buy on dips, focus on bullish outlook.
The upcoming market themes:
✅ May: Speculation on June rate cut expectations
✅ June-July: Trump tax cut expectations
✅ Later: The Federal Reserve slows down balance sheet reduction
Q3 and Q4 will be the real big market!
Currently, the AI concept is hot, combined with meme narratives, the market themes are becoming increasingly clear. Remember: Buy on dips, focus on bullish outlook.
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Will inflation plummet? Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts rise, good news for the crypto circle is coming!
The key factor currently affecting the crypto market is the PCE inflation data to be released next Wednesday. According to market predictions, PCE and core PCE are expected to decrease by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, much lower than previous inflation expectations. This significant drop in inflation data may help support expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, providing Powell with a reason for policy adjustment, which could become a short-term positive for the market.
If there are no other unforeseen factors, the market may react in advance before and after the data is released. However, it is important to note that most mainstream cryptocurrencies have already experienced significant increases, with Bitcoin prices returning to the bull market range, and altcoins generally soaring. Therefore, from a longer-term perspective, gradually reducing positions at highs is more rational than blindly chasing highs.
If there are no other unforeseen factors, the market may react in advance before and after the data is released. However, it is important to note that most mainstream cryptocurrencies have already experienced significant increases, with Bitcoin prices returning to the bull market range, and altcoins generally soaring. Therefore, from a longer-term perspective, gradually reducing positions at highs is more rational than blindly chasing highs.
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Currently关注的币种：
$DARK: Approximately 20m for the first entry, added some around 13, will stop loss if it breaks down. The reason for entry is the focus on MCP and deep correction, betting on a subsequent recovery in the market.
$RFC: Added positions three times at 30m, 25m, and 20m, betting that Musk might respond.
$WIZARD: Preparing to enter at around 4m for the first position, hoping for an opportunity to enter.
$GCATS: Planning to participate with a small position near 1m, there is a whale, but the overall quality of the project is average.
$ITALIANROT: Playing around 4m, seeing if it can push above 10m. The buying logic is that the whale is supporting the price, somewhat like a "conspiracy deal."
$MTN: Focusing on this week's voting situation to determine future operations.
$SKYAI: In a bit of an awkward position, not sure whether to enter or not. Continuing to monitor the movements of the BSC sector.
As for exchanges:
Did not maintain a keen sense for coins that were delisted from the platform, worth reflecting on.
In terms of allocation, only holding BTC, SOL, and BNB, with other coins being a hit-and-run strategy.
Personally feel that the main upward trend for CEX has not yet arrived, it is still a period of volatility. However, I'm quite curious about what position ETH will reach when BTC goes up to 100K in the next round.
$DARK: Approximately 20m for the first entry, added some around 13, will stop loss if it breaks down. The reason for entry is the focus on MCP and deep correction, betting on a subsequent recovery in the market.
$RFC: Added positions three times at 30m, 25m, and 20m, betting that Musk might respond.
$WIZARD: Preparing to enter at around 4m for the first position, hoping for an opportunity to enter.
$GCATS: Planning to participate with a small position near 1m, there is a whale, but the overall quality of the project is average.
$ITALIANROT: Playing around 4m, seeing if it can push above 10m. The buying logic is that the whale is supporting the price, somewhat like a "conspiracy deal."
$MTN: Focusing on this week's voting situation to determine future operations.
$SKYAI: In a bit of an awkward position, not sure whether to enter or not. Continuing to monitor the movements of the BSC sector.
As for exchanges:
Did not maintain a keen sense for coins that were delisted from the platform, worth reflecting on.
In terms of allocation, only holding BTC, SOL, and BNB, with other coins being a hit-and-run strategy.
Personally feel that the main upward trend for CEX has not yet arrived, it is still a period of volatility. However, I'm quite curious about what position ETH will reach when BTC goes up to 100K in the next round.
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Many people say that BSC has been making a lot of moves recently, but the result is "loud thunder, little rain." However, I don't quite agree with this view.
Take a look at the SOL chain now, it has almost become a typical case of PVP internal competition, with a very poor overall profit effect; most people are actually losing money. When the market is hot, everyone rushes in; but once the market cools down, that FOMO sentiment will immediately turn into a stampede.
Take a look at the SOL chain now, it has almost become a typical case of PVP internal competition, with a very poor overall profit effect; most people are actually losing money. When the market is hot, everyone rushes in; but once the market cools down, that FOMO sentiment will immediately turn into a stampede.
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Macro warming + hotspot rotation, are you ready for this wave of market?
As late April approaches, the Ethereum ecosystem is about to welcome a key upgrade milestone. The Prague user side will be released on April 21, and the mainnet upgrade is scheduled for May 7. This process not only marks further evolution in the Ethereum technical path but also provides a clear speculative time window for a series of related assets. Projects such as LDO, OP, ARB, EIGEN, RPL, FXS, PENDLE, ENA, as representatives of staking, Layer 2, and modular ecosystems, deserve close tracking.
Meanwhile, PEPE, as one of the strongest sentiment assets in the Ethereum ecosystem, may be a more explosive representative in the expectations of the Prague upgrade. Its liquidity is concentrated, and community activity is high, exhibiting typical characteristics of 'first-mover + high elasticity,' making its short-term focus worth further enhancement.
Meanwhile, PEPE, as one of the strongest sentiment assets in the Ethereum ecosystem, may be a more explosive representative in the expectations of the Prague upgrade. Its liquidity is concentrated, and community activity is high, exhibiting typical characteristics of 'first-mover + high elasticity,' making its short-term focus worth further enhancement.
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Yesterday, the Rhythm Initiative banned the promotion of contracts to college students, sparking heated discussions. In fact, contract trading is not suitable for most people; if one does not have sufficient ability and experience, it is best to avoid it. Its ultimate fate often leads to zero, no need to elaborate.
Last night, Liang Xi's live stream stirred up a frenzy in various communities. It's fine to watch it as a pastime, but there's no need to take it seriously. Instead of getting lost in gossip, it's better to spend time thinking about how to truly make money.
In the current market environment, it is advised to lower expectations for future earnings. Only with lowered expectations can operations be more rational. In the context of a lack of innovation and liquidity, it is difficult for the market to reproduce the madness of the last bull market in the short term.
As for Bitcoin's trend, the short-term direction has become relatively clear: the worst phase from last week has passed, and the bottom support has been confirmed. The likely scenario moving forward is a fluctuating upward trend. However, to break through the historical high, we may have to wait until the second half of the year. At that time, it could either surge above $150,000 or form a right shoulder structure before making adjustments, and we will respond according to the situation.
Last night, Liang Xi's live stream stirred up a frenzy in various communities. It's fine to watch it as a pastime, but there's no need to take it seriously. Instead of getting lost in gossip, it's better to spend time thinking about how to truly make money.
In the current market environment, it is advised to lower expectations for future earnings. Only with lowered expectations can operations be more rational. In the context of a lack of innovation and liquidity, it is difficult for the market to reproduce the madness of the last bull market in the short term.
As for Bitcoin's trend, the short-term direction has become relatively clear: the worst phase from last week has passed, and the bottom support has been confirmed. The likely scenario moving forward is a fluctuating upward trend. However, to break through the historical high, we may have to wait until the second half of the year. At that time, it could either surge above $150,000 or form a right shoulder structure before making adjustments, and we will respond according to the situation.
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In September 2017, BTC dropped by 40%
In March 2020, BTC dropped by 51%
In May 2021, BTC dropped by 34%
From March to October 2024, BTC dropped by 34%
From January to April 2025, BTC dropped by 31%
Each bull market, Bitcoin experiences a significant drop, but then reaches a new all-time high, so each major drop is a golden opportunity, cherish #巨鲸动向
In March 2020, BTC dropped by 51%
In May 2021, BTC dropped by 34%
From March to October 2024, BTC dropped by 34%
From January to April 2025, BTC dropped by 31%
Each bull market, Bitcoin experiences a significant drop, but then reaches a new all-time high, so each major drop is a golden opportunity, cherish #巨鲸动向
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The current cryptocurrency market is a bit chaotic. High market cap altcoins are stagnant, while low market cap ones barely show any signs of life before cooling off again. Occasionally, some coins that I've never heard of pop up and fluctuate wildly on the gainers list.
So it's better to stick to mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, and SOL. Their trends are relatively easy to understand, and at least it feels more reassuring.
So it's better to stick to mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, and SOL. Their trends are relatively easy to understand, and at least it feels more reassuring.
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The 500w market value of the rfc skirt has been shouting to get on board, and has not let off since. The current market value has also reached 110 million, directly bringing 20x to hand!
Today, I saw a market value of 100 million, and this is also the first time to remind my friends. Congratulations to my friends for acquiring a 20x golden dog!
Today, I saw a market value of 100 million, and this is also the first time to remind my friends. Congratulations to my friends for acquiring a 20x golden dog!
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Current Market Situation:
Strong Tokens Crash: Strong tokens like OM, DEXE, etc. have failed to hold up in a continuous downtrend, with declines approaching 90%. This is similar to the declines seen in tokens such as WLD, BETA, TRUMP, and WIF.
Bull Market Crash Risk: If these tokens are chosen, the risk of a crash during a bull market is higher, as the current market capital is significantly lower than in bull markets, allowing project teams to earn more while retail investors face heavy losses, potentially losing 70% or more.
Spot Strategy: Previously, it was said that spot trading was not a concern; however, the current situation has completely disenchanted this view in the bull market, so when purchasing altcoins now, a market price stop-loss strategy should be adopted to mitigate risks.
SOL Performs Strongly: SOL's market performance is stronger than ETH's, with new coins in the ecosystem like Orca Layer and PROMPT performing well.
Good Coins Are Scarce: There are fewer and fewer good coins in the market, with RFC becoming a leading token with a market cap exceeding 100 million, and the market is becoming increasingly active, but holding coins overnight is not recommended in the short term.
In an unstable market environment, sticking to existing strategies is encouraged, and it is believed that opportunities for improvement will arise.
Strong Tokens Crash: Strong tokens like OM, DEXE, etc. have failed to hold up in a continuous downtrend, with declines approaching 90%. This is similar to the declines seen in tokens such as WLD, BETA, TRUMP, and WIF.
Bull Market Crash Risk: If these tokens are chosen, the risk of a crash during a bull market is higher, as the current market capital is significantly lower than in bull markets, allowing project teams to earn more while retail investors face heavy losses, potentially losing 70% or more.
Spot Strategy: Previously, it was said that spot trading was not a concern; however, the current situation has completely disenchanted this view in the bull market, so when purchasing altcoins now, a market price stop-loss strategy should be adopted to mitigate risks.
SOL Performs Strongly: SOL's market performance is stronger than ETH's, with new coins in the ecosystem like Orca Layer and PROMPT performing well.
Good Coins Are Scarce: There are fewer and fewer good coins in the market, with RFC becoming a leading token with a market cap exceeding 100 million, and the market is becoming increasingly active, but holding coins overnight is not recommended in the short term.
In an unstable market environment, sticking to existing strategies is encouraged, and it is believed that opportunities for improvement will arise.
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Will SOL pull back or continue to rise?
Technical Analysis: The key support for SOL is at 128. If it falls below this level, a small head and shoulders pattern may form, with a pullback target of 124/120.
Pullback Outlook: An increase from 100 to 130+ followed by a moderate pullback is normal. As long as the market remains stable, there is still potential for further increases.
Operational Strategy: Continue to hold the spot, and pay attention to other cryptocurrencies for rebound opportunities. #巨鲸动向 #币安投票上币
Technical Analysis: The key support for SOL is at 128. If it falls below this level, a small head and shoulders pattern may form, with a pullback target of 124/120.
Pullback Outlook: An increase from 100 to 130+ followed by a moderate pullback is normal. As long as the market remains stable, there is still potential for further increases.
Operational Strategy: Continue to hold the spot, and pay attention to other cryptocurrencies for rebound opportunities. #巨鲸动向 #币安投票上币
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The OM token has skyrocketed by hundreds of times, and we cannot blame the market makers for the sudden crash; if you lose money, you can only blame yourself. In the crypto world, one must always have a sense of reverence for altcoins because the money is in the hands of the market makers, and they can play however they want. Compared to the last bull market, this bull market is indeed much more difficult, and it's harder for retail investors to make money. There is no general surge in prices like before, nor is there sector rotation; there is only relentless harvesting of retail investors. As investors, we need to be more cautious when buying and selling, and also think from different perspectives to analyze and assess risks. Having a market cap of several million on bn has no value anymore; instead, focusing on hot topics and going after the fish's body will be much more comfortable. The crypto world is fraught with risks, and investment must be approached with caution. #巨鲸动向
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Last night, Trump announced the tariff exemptions, which are no longer applicable to the 125% tariff on the East and the 10% equivalent tariff on other countries. This news positively influenced the rise of BTC. The reasoning is that macro information, policies, self-narratives, and other events affect market sentiment, thereby impacting BTC prices. The support or resistance levels are derived from BTC's chip data.
The fluctuation in BTC prices further impacts the prices of ETH, SOL, and other altcoins. Aside from their individual narratives, it is also the time of low liquidity, which is now, during the weekend in the Asia, Europe, and America time zones.
Due to the positive influence, BTC is pushing upward, but special attention should be paid tonight until tomorrow before the U.S. stock market opens. Market sentiment is certainly good, but according to chip data, 85,000 is a solid support level, while there are resistance levels at 86,600 and 87,700. ETH also reached a resistance level around 1,650-1,700, and SOL has a resistance around 135-138.
Don't forget that BTC's price has risen from 75,000 to 76,000, increasing by 10,000 USD. It is inevitable that those who bought at the bottom previously will take profits, and does everyone remember that period at the end of March? It has not been able to break and stabilize around 88,000.
Therefore, it is still important to approach this rationally. For BTC, tomorrow should likely not be a 'Black Monday.' The U.S. stock futures should be able to rise in the morning, and next week we will pay attention to whether there will be further negotiation agreements regarding tariffs.
The fluctuation in BTC prices further impacts the prices of ETH, SOL, and other altcoins. Aside from their individual narratives, it is also the time of low liquidity, which is now, during the weekend in the Asia, Europe, and America time zones.
Due to the positive influence, BTC is pushing upward, but special attention should be paid tonight until tomorrow before the U.S. stock market opens. Market sentiment is certainly good, but according to chip data, 85,000 is a solid support level, while there are resistance levels at 86,600 and 87,700. ETH also reached a resistance level around 1,650-1,700, and SOL has a resistance around 135-138.
Don't forget that BTC's price has risen from 75,000 to 76,000, increasing by 10,000 USD. It is inevitable that those who bought at the bottom previously will take profits, and does everyone remember that period at the end of March? It has not been able to break and stabilize around 88,000.
Therefore, it is still important to approach this rationally. For BTC, tomorrow should likely not be a 'Black Monday.' The U.S. stock futures should be able to rise in the morning, and next week we will pay attention to whether there will be further negotiation agreements regarding tariffs.
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The new tariff policy is favorable for the market; can Bitcoin break through $88,000?
Last night, a tariff exemption policy from Trump attracted widespread market attention. The previously imposed 125% tariff on East University and 10% equivalent tariffs on other countries were suspended, and this positive news quickly propelled the price of Bitcoin upward. Behind this surge is not only the direct impact of policy but also a combination of macro news, market sentiment, and the self-narrative of crypto assets.
The logic behind BTC's rise: from policy to chip data
In the cryptocurrency market, BTC is always the barometer. The market sentiment driven by favorable policies has directly pushed BTC prices higher. However, investors need to view this wave of market movement with calmness. According to chip data analysis, the current key support level for BTC is at $85,000, while the pressure levels above are at $86,600 and $87,700. This means that although short-term bullish sentiment is strong, breaking through these pressure levels will require more capital support.
The logic behind BTC's rise: from policy to chip data
In the cryptocurrency market, BTC is always the barometer. The market sentiment driven by favorable policies has directly pushed BTC prices higher. However, investors need to view this wave of market movement with calmness. According to chip data analysis, the current key support level for BTC is at $85,000, while the pressure levels above are at $86,600 and $87,700. This means that although short-term bullish sentiment is strong, breaking through these pressure levels will require more capital support.
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