0x桐灿

This is a set of indicators I created to assist in judging the peak of $BTC , which I am sharing publicly for the first time.
The data principles of this set of indicators are not complex; they mainly come from the premium index of retail investors for #BTC and the premium index targeting the whale group for #BTC . The green momentum bars represent retail investors, while the blue and red lines represent the whale group.

From this chart, it is not difficult to notice an interesting phenomenon corresponding to the historical peaks of BTC: in early March 2024, right before BTC reached the first peak in this bull market cycle and began to pull back, the premium index of the retail investors' green momentum bars surged, indicating extreme FOMO among retail investors. Meanwhile, the premium index of the whale group rapidly dropped from blue to red during those two days, after which BTC began its first major pullback.
A similar phenomenon occurred again at the end of November to early December 2024, where the retail investors' green momentum bars surged again, and market sentiment was euphoric, while the whale group's premium index again switched from blue to red, leading to the second major pullback in the market.

During the week from late April to early May, the green momentum bars surged again, and today the whale index suddenly changed from blue to red. This indicator is used to assist in judging the peak of $BTC with a higher accuracy rate; it is not recommended to use it as a reference for long or short trading operations.

I am just sharing the current situation of this indicator today, with no advice on trading operations, for everyone's reference.

If the next round of bullish trend can be smoothly initiated, I am ready to go all-in on spot $DOGE E. $DOGE is one of the few altcoins in this round that has been continuously moving in a bullish trend over a long cycle, and the candlestick chart looks very attractive.
For large-cap leading altcoins like this, there is no need to worry about a 'head-cutting' style decline when reaching the cycle top, leaving no time to escape the peak. Due to the large market cap, it takes time for the operators to unload their positions, and they usually create double tops or triple tops, providing enough time to assess the top structure and take profits.

I've been wanting to buy in for the past couple of days, but I always feel that we still need a confirmation of a pullback at the daily level. If I can buy in the first yellow box pullback area, the risk-reward ratio would be optimal; if I miss it, it’s not a bad thing either, as a strong breakout afterward will also clarify the initiation of the bullish trend, and there is a high probability that I can buy in the second yellow box area.
Buying around 0.15U offers the best risk-reward ratio, and buying around 0.21 would only be 15% higher than the current price, but the trend would be clearer, which is also a good thing.
【Plan your trades, trade your plan】
【The above is a personal trading plan for reference only】

A total of 8 shorts have been opened in various altcoins, along with a light position of $BTC . It is more advisable to short altcoins; many altcoins had bearish structures as early as April 28, while some appeared later, and today is when they show up. Look for those that have formed bearish structures on the 4-hour chart. Not all altcoins can be shorted, and it's not just about market capitalization size. For example, avoid those like $SUI which have strong breakouts, and $CRV which have shown a bullish trend on the daily chart ahead of time. I will continue to adhere to my personal trading plan, shorting during this pullback, patiently waiting to enter long positions, and being bold.

I think they are continuously luring in buyers. [Before this pullback]

Shorting the counterfeit has started, waiting for this wave of pullback to go long again.

Record: The 81,000 long position of $BTC flew at 88,000. After careful reflection, I feel there's no need to be harsh on myself, except for not taking profits in batches and leaving positions to push for protection. But at that time, I felt that it reached a resistance level, and I should have taken profits cleanly without regrets.
Fortunately, I controlled my emotions afterwards and didn’t engage in revenge trading. Next, I stayed out of the market for a week, quietly watching the market, considering entering short when the market shows stagnation on the daily chart, or not entering at all. In a bullish trend, I won’t trade against the trend; I'd rather miss out completely. I’ll patiently wait for a pullback and then observe for a second wave of bullishness.
【There is no market situation that cannot be given up】. If I miss a good opportunity to enter a bullish position, then I will take a break and patiently wait for a new round of bearish trends; if I miss a bearish cycle, I will continue to wait for bullishness.
The market never stops; I only take the shots I’m most confident about.
In a weak river of three thousand, I only take a ladle to drink.

$BTC said this morning: It is not recommended to chase long positions here. You can avoid shorting because there are signs of a breakout, and shorting may cause psychological pressure, but there is no need to chase long positions here. 1-hour 2B, daily resistance level, take profit on long positions first. Wait for a rebound to confirm a decline before entering a short position.

Many altcoins have entered the oversold area and are showing signs of rebound and consolidation. From April to June, altcoins can start dollar-cost averaging (DCA) with spot investments, as the risk-reward ratio here is relatively favorable. It is currently unpredictable whether the bullish trend in the second half of the year will lead to a major rebound or a continued market trend, just like whether $BTC will rebound to 100,000 or break the previous high to reach 140,000. Subjectively, I do not predict but follow the market trend.
No longer chasing long positions here at $BTC , patiently waiting for a pullback.

Drinking some alcohol with friends, maybe a bit too much, I've talked a lot today, 【I've already started trading with real money】. This is something I promised my fans on Twitter at the end of January this year, and I haven't forgotten. I'm not trying to prove anything; I just want to fulfill a 【ten-thousand-fold trading dream】 together with the things I love and my friends who love trading.

Before I entered trading and the crypto world, I had already achieved relative material freedom in other industries. The greatest lesson and contradiction I learned through the ups and downs of other industries and societal norms is: 【the winner takes all】 and 【the wise are often hidden】.

People only see the results, just like you and me. Entrepreneurs look at revenue and profit; business people look at money and wealth; artists speak through their works; writers are judged not by their eloquence but by their sales.

However, most of the teachers and benefactors I have encountered in my life were, at the time of our meeting, like 【hidden wise men】. I couldn't see their “results”; they also concealed all worldly standards of judgment. I could only rely on their snippets of conversation and my intuitive feelings during our interactions to identify this “big brother.”

So perhaps related to my growth journey, I hope and desire to meet all those who can understand and read me before I 【show the results】.

【Once my real trading reaches the recommended list for hundreds or thousands of times】, I will reveal my COIN account name to everyone. Until then, I will focus on doing my trading well and sharing my trading experiences. If one day, due to the results 【being discovered by everyone】, I will delete all past trading experiences and techniques I posted on Twitter.

“If a person needs to rely heavily on external displays to prove their strength, it is not the world's sadness, but your personal sadness.” This is something one of my teachers told me.

I have run a membership group for a few months, and there are old members who often privately ask me: I don't understand why you created this group. Is it to find friends to play with you? Or to find talented disciples? I just want to meet some people who can understand me before I 【show the results】.

I am not particularly strong, nor do I claim to have the ability to become a teacher.

But I am curious about the few friends and students I meet along this journey who can understand me.

【Before I show the results】.

The so-called 【right-side trading】 is also known as "crowded trading." Because this type of trading, after a lot of technical practice experience, can be relatively accurate in entry points by skilled and stable traders. The most difficult, yet most profitable, but also the riskiest 【left-side trading】 is also known as - "trading of the few."
For example, bottom fishing when going long and top fishing when going short.

Many traders have shared their methods for calculating bottom and top fishing, but the real secret core lies in the 【tolerance】 experience for stop-losses. If you short $BTC at 85500 today and place a stop-loss at 86000, that is a standard short. However, because the 【tolerance】 has been breached. The 【tolerance】 needs to be allocated in conjunction with the position and the rated loss, which is relatively complex.
For example, with a margin of 10,000 U and 2x leverage: shorting 20,000 U at 85500 with a stop-loss at 86000 is not as good as shorting 10,000 U at 85500, setting a limit order to add to the position at 86000 with 5000 U, and another limit order to add to the position at 86500 with 5000 U, with a stop-loss at 87000.

This is actually left-side trading, the core technique of 【tolerance】 for top and bottom fishing.

Ending

【Sharing some of my short-selling experiences】$BTC $ETH
Limited word count, so I will just post screenshots; detailed content can be found on Twitter.

The big pancake at #BTC has successfully reached the position of 85600. This point is the last take profit point when I opened a short position a few days ago, but this is not a point to enter long.
Next, let's first see the reaction at the position of 85300 and see if we can form a pin bar. If we can't form a pin bar here, then we will wait patiently, waiting for stabilization at the 4-hour level before entering long, which will be more reliable and last longer than the 1-hour level.

Yesterday you kept asking $BTC if it had stabilized, and whether it was safe to buy more.
In my view, this pattern at least hasn’t completed its adjustment in 1 hour; I would rather miss out than enter a buy position. Just entered a short position again, and sure enough, it went down again, closed 70% of the position, and will continue to push for breakeven on the rest, with a take profit set at 85600. If this position breaks down again, I will continue to patiently wait for a buying opportunity. I cannot predict, let’s see the market conditions tomorrow morning.

In summary, there are no trades that must be made; only trade what you are most confident in. 【Stay patient】

The short positions of $BTC and $ETH have been closed at 70% of the position. I left an ant position to push for breakeven loss, hoping it can reach the 0.618 level. Let's see the situation in the next two days, and wait for it to stabilize for 1 hour before preparing to take a long position.

The empty orders of $BTC and $ETH have been closed at 70% of the position. Left an ant position to push for breakeven loss, thinking it might reach the 0.618 level. Let's observe the situation over the next one or two days, and prepare to enter a long position once it stabilizes for an hour.

Good morning friends, I raise my glass to you $BTC $ETH

The stubborn prediction in February for $ETH was merely a temporary adjustment in the new bullish trend, which was my biggest mistake in this cycle.
Currently, $ETH is still in a bearish trend. If you personally have a positive outlook for the future and are a spot trader, you might consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into the altcoins you are optimistic about during the relative lows each week. However, it's important to note that the current entry is more inclined towards left-side entry, so I recommend being patient with your investments.

If you want to increase the utilization of your funds and wish to add some leverage for a more confident entry, then I suggest continuing to wait patiently. Do not fixate on the 1-hour or 4-hour candlestick charts and analyze them repeatedly. At the very least, wait until the daily level's oscillation range no longer breaks new lows, and the daily and weekly levels start to elevate the bottom. At that time, entering will be closer to the starting point of the new bullish trend.

[I wrote a long article, the number of words is limited, please see the screenshots for the second half]
I started to resume trading gradually. This time I was ill and rested for more than half a month. I read a lot of Buddhist books at home. When I started trading again, my state of mind changed a lot. I will share some of them with you briefly, hoping that it will be helpful to you. In the past, when I discussed and communicated with friends who were doing trading, my friends often talked about "cultivating the mind" and the improvement of "state of mind" will become more and more important in trading in the middle and late stages. But at that time, I was still focused on the muddy sea of ​​technology. Now looking back at myself in the past, I really have a feeling of seeing flowers in the fog and not knowing the true face of Mount Lu, just because I am in this mountain.

Back to the world of trading again, my personal trading system has also changed a lot.

1. I try my best to get used to trading in large-scale cycles, such as 4-hour level and daily level, and give up the short-term trading in the past. Trading in large-scale cycles requires more patience, because it takes longer to determine and form large-scale trends. Then after finding the "prey" you want to hunt, you need to patiently continue to track this prey until the trend is established before you make a move. In a short time, you may only need to track it for two or three days, and in a long time, you may even need to track it for 5-7 days to determine the formation of a short or long trend. So patience is very important, but please believe me, when you learn the precious ability of patience in the world of trading, your realm will definitely be qualitatively improved. I usually track 3-5 prey at the same time, and I don't recommend more.

After opening a position, the benefits of a large level will also appear, because once a large-level trend is formed, the accuracy and winning rate will definitely be much higher than short-term trading such as 15 minutes or 1 hour. And your position holding process will also be very peaceful and comfortable. The large-level position holding can be as short as three or two days, or as long as four or five days. If you don't want to do the middle band, you can hold the position for longer. So in the process, you should eat, live, and sleep. During this process you only need to take a look occasionally. My advice is to take profits in batches while holding positions, and then continue to follow the trend to push profit protection for the remaining positions, so that you will basically not feel anxious during the holding process.

I took a break for more than half a month. Half a year ago, my heart gave me a warning due to long nights of trading and irregular sleep. After drinking with friends at a gathering, I suddenly woke up with palpitations and aphasia, unable to express what I wanted to say. Later, I went to the hospital for a comprehensive check-up, and since there were no problems, I felt relieved. The doctor said it was likely caused by a temporary lack of blood supply to the heart. This time, I directly experienced left-hand tremors and a disjointed state of mind, with symptoms lasting a day before gradually recovering. After two warnings, I am truly scared.

In the past half month, I have been going to bed early and waking up early every day, and my overall spirit and energy have improved a lot. Whether it's friends doing secondary trading or primary on-chain trading, everyone should have a deep understanding that the biggest toll on the body in this industry comes from long nights and chaotic schedules. The A-shares have working hours and weekends off, but the crypto market operates 365 days a year, 24 hours a day. Sometimes market movements occur during US and European hours, and sometimes during Asian market hours; if you want to catch every market movement, your sleep and schedule inevitably become chaotic and irregular.

I love trading and I love this job, but health and physical well-being always come first; otherwise, everything is upside down and meaningless. In the future, I will only engage in healthy trading within my 'scheduled hours'; anything that happens outside of that, such as major market movements and fluctuations, has nothing to do with me. Trading at the expense of health and life is meaningless; it’s better not to do it.

I also hope that my friends who follow me can take this tweet as a cautionary tale. Having money does not necessarily lead to happiness, but without health, you will definitely not be happy.