0x桐灿

This wave has confused me. On August 7th, I originally wanted to break out and go long, but I always felt that this was a consolidation phase. Even if it goes up, there will be a pullback. Next, I'll continue to buy on dips and follow the major trend.

This has been the biggest mistake I've made in the past four months, and I deeply reflect on it.

Shorted upon entry, a total of 6 altcoins opened.
For those looking to short, just focus on mainstream altcoins; the structures are similar, just avoid meme coins.
Here it's still somewhat left-sided.
Cautious reference.

Yesterday, I closed half of my short position on the altcoin, and the rest has been set to break-even today. I don't quite understand the market here, so I will keep my position empty for two days.

Originally, when I went long on August 3rd, I was looking at $ETH to make a false breakout at the top, but I was shaken out by the oscillation in between, so I won't chase long positions here for now.

Next, I will focus on the movement of $ETH . If it can strongly break through the 4100 level, I will reconsider going long. If it stagnates at the top, I will continue to short the altcoin at high points.

For your reference.

Shorting the shanzhai has begun.
The rebound of $ETH has been quite strong these past two days, providing ample time for profit-taking, while the rebound of $BTC has been too weak.

Overall, August is still a market trend of oscillation and pullbacks, and the monthly charts for BTC and ETH have both turned red.
I personally plan to take advantage of highs to open medium-term short positions again. Those who prefer to go long can also do so during the oscillation and pullback market, but I do not recommend going long during this period, as it is counter-trend trading.

For reference.

I forgot to sync the updates from Twitter to the plaza a couple of days ago. The long positions taken on ETH and BTC during the rebound on August 3rd have already been closed for profit.

"No one is forcing you to earn a lifetime of wealth in one month."
Feel this sentence.

Stay patient.

On July 26, I shared with everyone that I started to take profits and exit my long positions.

On July 29, I reminded everyone again that the trend might be changing.

I only trust the candlesticks I see.

This morning, I scanned the market. Aside from a few strong altcoins, many altcoins have formed daily double tops and head and shoulders patterns.

Pay attention to the risk of a pullback in August.

For your reference.

Synchronizing with everyone to share: In the next week, I will begin to take profits on long positions in batches and gradually exit.

Originally, it was expected that this round of the bull market would last at least until the first week of August without much issue, but the drop on July 24 suddenly disrupted the bullish trend. The subsequent market situation has left me with a question mark in my mind.

In my personal view, in the next 1-2 weeks, strong altcoins and some altcoins trying to recover will continue to reach new highs, while other altcoins may just experience right-side rebounds and fluctuations; the market situation will become increasingly difficult to operate. This is what I often refer to as the "consolidation phase after the main rise in a bullish trend". If one wants to operate during this phase, I recommend focusing on short-term trades.

Regarding the "ten thousand times real trading" that I personally want to do long-term, the yield rate this month remains the same, closing at around 100%. In April, May, June, and July, regardless of whether the market was rising or falling, the yield rate was around 100%, stable like a robot...
On July 11, I synchronized my large account of $BTC , and the yield rate has currently retraced to around 46%, so I am also preparing to take profits and defend here.

Every trader on Twitter has a completely different style; some trade short waves, while others trade trend patterns; some only go long and do not short, while others trade both long and short positions on short timeframes.
I trade both bullish and bearish markets, but I primarily focus on the most stable medium-term positions within bullish and bearish trends. Currently, I have not seen any similar traders on Twitter using my trading system.

Still, as I often say, my judgment cannot always be correct. However, based on my trading system, the most valuable thing I can provide to everyone may be my timely sharing when I sense changes in "trends".

The above is for everyone's reference.

$ENA may be the first iconic token of counterfeit US stocks.
Entered a long position when it broke 0.3 on July 11, averaging up to 0.385 in the meantime.
Continue to hold.

I believe the recent short pullback of altcoins is normal, and there is no need to feel fear here; instead, it should be seen as a good opportunity to enter the market on the right side and to appropriately increase positions.

Personally, I will only add to my long position that I entered on July 11, rather than reduce it. This is my personal opinion, and everyone can refer to it themselves. We can come back in a week to see if altcoins $OTHERS continue to reach new highs.

At the same time, I would like to share a piece of advice that I have always found very useful. The original text comes from legendary trader GCR, and after translating it into Chinese, I added some of my own rhetoric.

'When a trend is just beginning to reverse, you should dare to take risks and make decisions and execute positions as quickly as possible. Then, as time goes by, start to gradually protect profits and become more cautious and vigilant.

People lose money because they always take the exact opposite approach: they act slowly in the early stages, hesitating and entangled, unwilling to enter the market, but as time goes on, they become increasingly crazy and greedy in the later stages.'

The long position entered on July 11 is still being held.
Here I would like to remind everyone that the counterfeit $OTHERS 【weekly】 has officially broken through 【3】 today, July 18, which also means the formal establishment of 123.
This weekly trend reversal has been shared on Twitter since July 4, tracking and sharing with everyone.
If you are bullish on the market, then this is the best timing for entering on the right side. The further we go, the greater the risk than the reward.
For reference.

【Content length is limited in the square, and many recent long posts about the market have been recorded on Twitter】

A reminder before sleeping: it is best not to short $BTC anymore, and even more so, do not try to top out or hold positions.
This approach is no longer a way to liquidate short liquidity.
Even if there are opportunities to short after a market pullback, be patient and wait first. Short-term traders on a 5-minute chart can ignore this. If you like excitement, go ahead.

Brothers, I've been timely in alerting you to the changes in market trends.

Just yesterday, I mentioned that a single bullish candle might directly reverse the bearish trend. Personally, I've shifted from【bearish to neutral observation】, and in just these past two days, we've directly broken through.

About market views and some trading concepts sharing.
Due to word count limits, I will share screenshots from Twitter.
For reference.

The short position opened on July 3rd has been completely closed, and the first week of July has already achieved a 58% monthly return.

In terms of space, the current batch of altcoins has pulled back to near the support level;
In terms of time, this 4-hour to daily level pullback has basically completed.
At the same time, $BTC has faced significant resistance at 107300 during its pullback, which is also the POC position for $BTC from the rebound of 98000 to 110000.
Therefore, I will not set any new short positions for now, and will close all positions to take profit and observe.

What follows is a critical period for the battle between bulls and bears. Currently, the 4-hour to daily level of altcoins is showing a pattern of higher lows and higher highs again, so it is advisable to look for long opportunities in the smaller timeframe. However, as mentioned in yesterday's Twitter, whether the low on June 22 can be confirmed as a weekly higher low formation in the larger timeframe still needs the market and candlesticks to provide an answer.

If the price subsequently breaks below the low on June 22, the weekly higher low will be invalidated, and I will continue to short on rebounds. If the higher low is confirmed, I will wait for the right opportunity to go long.

Stay patient and stay disciplined. For me, making the most confident 2-4 trades each month is enough.
Just like a seasoned hunter, most of the time is spent observing the prey and waiting for the right moment. It takes five days to track a prey and just one second to pull the trigger.

Friends, are we bullish or bearish?

Personal views remain unchanged, rebound short.
This morning's rebound is a good position for many counterfeit rebound shorts, low leverage short positions, whether to short or not depends on your own decision 🌞

The post shared on May 10th recorded my biggest concern at the time: that this wave of upward trend is a rebound B wave of a larger cycle.

So this upward wave came suddenly and swiftly, but it will also end quickly. At that time, I said it could be as fast as about a month, and it might extend to early July. Currently, it seems the timing is about right.

The candlestick chart in this post is of $OTHERS, but looking at $TOTAL makes it even more obvious, a standard five-wave followed by an ABC wave.

Personally, I am optimistic and really hope that there will be another bullish market in Q4.
However, if the larger cycle has already begun to move down in a C wave, then the bullish market in Q4 might see $BTC rising alone, while a large number of altcoins only experience another wave of phase rebound, with a small portion of strong altcoins entering a bullish phase.