0x桐灿

Personal views remain unchanged, rebound short.
This morning's rebound is a good position for many counterfeit rebound shorts, low leverage short positions, whether to short or not depends on your own decision 🌞

The post shared on May 10th recorded my biggest concern at the time: that this wave of upward trend is a rebound B wave of a larger cycle.

So this upward wave came suddenly and swiftly, but it will also end quickly. At that time, I said it could be as fast as about a month, and it might extend to early July. Currently, it seems the timing is about right.

The candlestick chart in this post is of $OTHERS, but looking at $TOTAL makes it even more obvious, a standard five-wave followed by an ABC wave.

Personally, I am optimistic and really hope that there will be another bullish market in Q4.
However, if the larger cycle has already begun to move down in a C wave, then the bullish market in Q4 might see $BTC rising alone, while a large number of altcoins only experience another wave of phase rebound, with a small portion of strong altcoins entering a bullish phase.

The first half of June was very poor, with an uncertain market trend swinging between bullish and bearish, causing wear and tear.

After giving myself a forced three-day cooling-off period, I re-entered the market to short on the 15th, and by today, I've achieved a 138% return within a week, which means I've completed this month's task.
I abandoned high leverage and only took low-multiple medium to long positions, resulting in a capped monthly return. But the benefit is a stable mindset, and I don't have to watch the market closely, allowing me more time to live and do other things, which I'm quite content with.

Living in my own time zone, adhering to my own trading system. Just recording this, take it slow.

Every time I say I am bearish on the market, many people don't like to hear it and are unwilling to accept it. Personally, I understand very well.

Everyone hopes that this market can have a long-term trending行情. But friends, a bullish trending行情 is a trend, and a bearish trending行情 is also a trend.

If you prefer to be bullish and trade long, and do not like to be bearish and trade short, then you can just find a counterfeit to reverse the K-line and trade accordingly. You can trade long just as you would trade short; just take Hippopotamus #Moodeng as an example.

Isn't this a newly started bullish trending行情? Following the 4-hour moving average, buying on dips, I don't know how enjoyable that is.

Be a little more flexible, friends.

Still maintaining the previous viewpoint.
Next, most altcoins will experience a rebound followed by a decline, while a few strong altcoins will also end the bullish trend after completing the final surge on $BTC this month, initiating a downturn.
June is the best time to build short positions at high prices, and July will be a feast for bears.

Many altcoins are really terrible. It is meaningless to look at the 4-hour line or the daily line.

For example, $OP and $FIL are both head and shoulders tops at the monthly level, and have broken through the monthly support line…………

If the decline is based on a 1:1 ratio, OP is likely to break the issue price and fall below 0.4U; FIL may go below 1U.

These so-called "value coins" in the past really cut retail investors.

Good morning, beautiful morning 🌞
$BTC $JTO $PENDLE Empty 📉

$BTC is facing the pressure of a weekly pullback, while $ETH seems eager to try again at this position.

The strong altcoins continue to maintain an upward trend in June; meanwhile, the weak altcoins have entered a downward bearish trend after mid to late May with a series of rebounds.

Discussing bullish and bearish trends here seems to have lost its meaning.
Because everyone's 'context' is completely different, 'I am bullish' because my token has been fluctuating upward, 'I am bearish' because the asset I am shorting has been continuously declining.

There is no unified market trend; in bullish and bearish trends, everyone who makes money in their own trading assets is a winner.

I thought I had bottomed out the day before yesterday, but when I looked at the trend last night, it didn't look right, and I stopped out of the spot. I opened a short position for $ICP and recovered a bit.

From the beginning of June until now, it has basically been opening short positions, then opening long positions, making profits, then losing, and in the end, barely breaking even.
When the trend is unclear, the best way is still to stay out of the market and take a break. Less hassle.

I have forced myself into a three-day cooling-off period.

All short positions have been closed, and the profits for May have all returned to zero.
Adjust your mindset and come back stronger.

Here, I have re-purchased spot assets $ONDO and $APT . The remaining positions will focus on well-structured altcoins for medium to short-term long positions, taking it one trade at a time.

Next, pay close attention to the reaction of $ETH when it reaches around 3000. If it can strongly break through 3000 and then pull back without breaking, then it will have a reminiscent feel of mid-November 2024 and mid-February 2024.

The next two weeks should be enough for altcoins to start a strong upward trend.

【Note: Here, you can look for some altcoins still at low positions to buy some spot assets or leverage low to go long. The key focus for the market remains on whether ETH can reach around 3000 in the coming week and how $BTC will react to the recent divergence.
It is not recommended to chase long positions with high leverage here; if there is a sustained market trend in the latter half of the month, wait for the market to stabilize before entering.】

It's over, brothers.

Still drinking outside, took a look at my account, and was dumbfounded.

This afternoon, I was confidently adding positions, directly leveraging the profits from May to short.

If the market rises by about 15 points tomorrow, the profits from May will be completely wiped out.

I won't tell everyone that I have closed my short positions and gone long again; I was wrong, and I admit it.

When the K-line breaks my last line of defense against shorting, and the light of the bulls shines on me again, I will once again return to a full position in the bull market.

The above is for reference.

Use your instinctive reaction to tell me, is it up or down $ETH

Although I know that everyone dislikes bearish views, I have rationally assessed the market over the past couple of days, and for now, I won't be looking bullish here.

There will still be opportunities for trending markets in the second half of the year, but after this wave is completed, there should be a period of consolidation and pullback.

I found five clones, opened low-leverage medium to long positions, and will hold them until the end of the month for now.

The above is for reference.

The difficulty level of the market has reached its peak here.

From mid to late April to June, this round of market conditions has increased in difficulty compared to November to mid-December last year, whether it’s the judgment of the starting point or in the process of $BTC continuously breaking through resistance levels, $ETH suddenly surging with a strong bullish line, while many altcoins have completely diverged during this process, repeatedly going through roller coasters and experiencing large fluctuations.

Currently, the market is once again contradictory, and both bullish and bearish perspectives make sense. BTC definitely cannot chase shorts here; if one buys the dip, it can only be a gamble on a false breakout to a new high or a secondary high. Without sufficient consolidation, there is no confidence to expect a new round of significant upward movement immediately.

Originally stronger $ETH has now deteriorated on the daily chart, and many altcoins have once again fallen back to weekly and monthly lows. From the perspective of altcoins, this should be a buy-the-dip opportunity, even if it’s for a medium-term rebound. But what if ETH quickly consolidates and then continues a strong market?
However, if BTC continues to fluctuate and ETH starts to correct downwards, then many altcoins may again face a situation like February where they directly break below weekly and monthly bottoms, continuing to drop by 30% to 50%.

On the other hand, for shorting, many coins are already in the bottom area here. Unless one waits for a confirmed break below the weekly support before chasing shorts, it’s hard to take action. The relatively strong altcoins are still at relatively high levels, wanting to follow ETH to be bullish, but many of these altcoins have already clearly broken below the bullish trend or have formed head-and-shoulders patterns on the daily and weekly charts. Rationally speaking, it would be better to go for medium to long-term shorts.

In summary, the current market is a chaotic and contradictory situation; you can either be bullish and go long or bearish and short.
I personally closed my long position bought on May 31 at a loss, and my short position opened on June 4 for hedging is still held because it was opened two days earlier at a better level, so I can hold it for a while.

As for the rest, I really can't understand it well, so I will remain in cash and observe for a couple of days.

All long positions for bottom fishing have been stopped out, no holding positions. Continue to hold short positions, wait for a rebound to add to the position, respect the market direction.

$BTC and the long positions in the counterfeit bottom are still being held, there might be a small pullback in the next couple of days, and I've opened some short positions for hedging.

It has been oscillating in a narrow range for almost a week now, and it should soon show a direction.

Continue to wait patiently and see how the market moves later.

I will inform everyone when I liquidate.

Let's fight, Air Force friends $BTC

It's that time again when there's a serious divergence between bulls and bears. Should we buy the dip, friends?