It's time to talk about the exchange rate of ETH again.
What reference significance does the exchange rate of ETH have for our real trading?
I have made the following three simple summaries:
1. The exchange rate continues to decline, indicating that the market of ETH is weaker than that of BTC.
2. The exchange rate continues to rise, indicating that the market of ETH is stronger than that of BTC.
3. The exchange rate is sideways, indicating that the volatility rates of ETH and BTC tend to be the same.
Therefore, it is useful to judge the rise and fall of ETH by the exchange rate!
When the exchange rate reached a stage high on May 27, the rise at that time was at best a form of oversold rebound, and there was no reversal pattern. I advise everyone to operate with caution. In retrospect, if it is true, the exchange rate of ETH has been in a downward trend since then.
The standard for judging the breakthrough of the exchange rate is to step back to the support of 0.5 without breaking, and then fluctuate in a small range. At present, the trend is running in the predicted route, but this support has moved up, and the current reference value is 0.515~0.53.
In other words, the probability of ETH's exchange rate rebounding upward is high, and then it will fluctuate at the daily level.
Assuming that the price of BTC is sideways or rising, specifically in terms of the operation of ETH prices, this period of sideways trading is about to end, and ETH needs to make up for the rise. After the rise, the probability of linking BTC operation is high.
From the perspective of ETH's trend alone, the current sideways trading is a repair of the rise on May 20. From a technical point of view, this repair is expected to be completed before the middle of this month, which is about 7 days from now.
Practical reference:
1. From the perspective of the exchange rate, it is now supported that the price of ETH leaves the current daily level fluctuation range.
2. Judging from the technical structure, it will take nearly 7 days (conservative estimate) for ETH to end this period of fluctuation.
Specifically in terms of practical points, it is to support the layout of ETH's medium and long-term positions at the current price (3845), and then reserve a replenishment position at 3510. The medium and long-term is safe.
