The 519 fourth anniversary, at that time, the article mocking cryptocurrency began with this sentence as a satire, and now we stand above $100,000.
In the new week, Bitcoin surged to clear liquidity around 106200 early this morning, and then surged another 1000 points to clear the short liquidity around 106000.
Why was BTC so volatile this morning?
It's simple; after accumulating a whole weekend of low volatility, the capital eager to participate in trading has long been unable to hold back.
And the cause of all this was exactly a wave of rise caused by institutional rebalancing or spot buying last night. During this wave of rise, the spot premium has basically remained unchanged, indicating no divergence between futures and spot.
In the subsequent pullback, short-term high-leverage futures shorts took the initiative to attack first but were then wiped out, followed by short-term high-leverage longs taking the initiative to attack, and currently, it is in a rather delicate state.
In short, the focus going forward is whether the spot premium can rise again with the price drop; then, after finishing the third door, we can draw the fourth door... and break a new high again!
If the premium starts to decline as the price drops, then in this game of drawing doors back and forth, the shorts may achieve final victory...
To put it bluntly, it's about which side the spot market main force tends to help in this fierce battle between the long and short sides of the futures.
Let's look at the trend:
$BTC
The daily chart shows a long bullish candle with a short upper shadow, and the trading volume is about twice that of the previous day, but it is within a normal trading volume range without significant expansion.
On the hourly level, it first rose last night, then dropped early in the morning before quickly surging again, first exploding the short positions then the long positions, and finally exploding a wave of chasing short positions.
The main force made a double explosion of long and short positions at this position, ruthlessly plundering the liquidity of the contracts.
Although the daily level has broken through and reached a recent high, it should be noted that this rise is driven by the 8-hour level. Currently, after a new high on the 4-hour rebound, it is a very typical divergence pattern; the 4-hour level has already supported too much upward movement, and it is the 8-hour level that is supporting the price increase.
Sweet girl still holds the view that the price will drop in the first couple of days this week and then rise again in the latter half.
$ETH
Can the great E-Guardian buy the bottom again?
The weekly chart shows a small bearish candle with long upper and lower shadows, with trading volume roughly the same as last week, which is a normal adjustment trend after a rapid rise.
The upcoming trend will sync with Bitcoin, and there will still be a drop and a retest, with the key positions remaining at the two blue lines (2320-2530). Wherever it retests will be counted as such. Since the MACD of $ETH is still below the zero axis, the weekly upward momentum is not as strong as Bitcoin's, so the fluctuation after a rapid rise will be rather difficult to endure, but if you get through it, it will open up a large space for upward movement.
It is still worth buying on dips; if it stands above the MA30 line, it will continue to challenge the $3500 position.
These days, the market is a bit strange.
On one side, Bitcoin is soaring, about to hit a new high again;
On the other hand, altcoins are somewhat sluggish.
Looking at the 'altcoin season index', it has recently turned down, from a rebound to 43, now it has dropped to 24.
It means that now it's 'Bitcoin as the father, altcoins as the grandchildren' rhythm.
When this index is high, it indicates that altcoins are rising faster than Bitcoin.
It's low, indicating that everyone's money has run back to Bitcoin.
In December of last year, this index surged to 87; it was quite lively then, with altcoins flying around.
But for now, back to reality, the retail investors are starting to be cautious.
However, not all altcoins are underperforming; in the last 90 days, among the top 100 projects by market cap, there are still 24 coins that have risen more than BTC, such as #FARTCOIN, #FORM, #IP, #VIRTUAL, #BRETT...
These coins may not be well-known to you, but what does that indicate?
The market is diverging; some coins are quietly taking off while others are playing dead.
So don't think that just because BTC is rising, altcoins can go up wildly; this is currently a BTC-dominated market.
For altcoins, one must see if the 'theme + enthusiasm + capital' keep up; blindly going all in can easily lead to being trapped.
Waiting for the altcoin index to rise again, for example, back above 50, may signal the real start of the 'altcoin season'.
Choosing altcoins requires careful selection; lying flat and waiting for the right opportunity is also one of the strategies.
When the 'altcoin spring' truly arrives, you might be able to make money even by buying with your eyes closed.
Right now, one still needs to be cautious.
The wealth code discovered by Hehe during the market sweep:
- ApeCoin ($APE)
NFT concept, airdrop concept, just reached cooperation with some projects.
This cycle performed well, with both small trends showing significant increases, one by nearly 3 times and the other by nearly 5 times.
This cycle's two rises have a very obvious characteristic: there will be a rise of more than 50% each time. Since it hasn't risen in the final phase, it indicates that it hasn't ended, and this trend will also follow the rise.
