This morning, Trump stirred things up again by setting new tariffs globally, but fortunately, the market feels it won't be too crazy.
However, the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating poses risks to the risk markets.
Especially since U.S. stocks were closed over the weekend, but $BTC wasn't; today is Saturday, which is fine, but the key time is tomorrow night to Monday day.
In times of low liquidity, a small amount of chips can crash the market, and a small amount of funds can pump the market.
This event currently has a pessimistic impact on sentiment.
Currently, the BTC market has already been slightly affected by a decline, and #ETH has fallen below 2,500.
Let's look at the trend:
$BTC
Bitcoin has recently fluctuated in the range of $100,700 - $105,000, reflecting the market's long and short game and valuation differences.
The technical analysis is presenting a pennant shape, but the effectiveness of traditional analysis has weakened under institutional dominance.
Large on-chain transactions are active, and implied volatility in options is high, indicating that a change is imminent.
Direction may depend on Federal Reserve policy, spot ETF fund flows, and global risk appetite.
Investors are advised to reduce short-term operations, pay attention to the correlation between coins and stocks, and the market value of stablecoins, while patiently waiting for a clear trend.
Is the main capital still in? How will BTC's market trend develop?
Analyzing whether the main fund's accumulation indicates that BTC's holder has escaped.
From April 7 to April 22, it was a zone for the main accumulation of funds, with net inflows close to 4B; the actual spending by the main players may be between 4B and 8B.
Between May 6, the floating profit of long positions basically took profits, but the net accumulation of long positions is still around 3850m, indicating that the funds accumulated by the main players before April 23 are still holding, and have not sold. Previous posts have emphasized multiple times that the main players haven't left, and the market is still in play.
On May 12, the contract funds reached a peak of 6.6B, then began to pull back, with retail investors and small institutions basically taking profits.
Recently, it has continued to fluctuate; if the contract funds remain around 4B without further decrease, it indicates that those who needed to leave have left. The main funds continue to hold, and after 1-2 weeks of adjustment, it will continue to rise, similar to the funding situation on May 6.
Conclusion: Currently, there is a high probability that the main funds are still in play. After sufficient adjustments, the outlook remains bullish, and it is safe to hold coins. There still needs to be up and down fluctuations, and it is best to observe for a few more days for a better grasp.
$ETH
Last night's rise was entirely to eat up the liquidity of the short positions above, with the liquidation of a large short position at 2620, reaching a peak price of 2649, clearing out the liquidity above.
The pullback only started around midnight to the vicinity of 2480, which basically matches what I said about the fluctuation within the 2620-2480 range. The 2480 position has already received strong support several times. On weekends, liquidity is scarce, and if it breaks below this position, it may trigger large sell-offs.
$ETH liquidation chart shows that short users added all their short positions back in the middle of the night, and the liquidation fund is more than double that of longs. Current market positions are looking at the support at 2480, with a break below at the support of 2423. If it breaks down, it may fall to the 2180 level.
There is a large space for shorting; the problem is that too many people are shorting, so it won't decline smoothly. It is estimated that it will rise for a while to clean up short users before falling.
Today's hot cryptocurrencies:
$MIRAI
Yesterday afternoon, I advised the community's members to buy the 'dog coin' with a market value of 13 million. It directly launched in the BN's ALPHA sector in the afternoon, temporarily rising to over 20 million in market value. After going online in alpha, it experienced a slight decline, which is a very normal phenomenon.
Overall, it is still very strong; just now it surged to a market value of 26 million, and the entry price has also successfully achieved a doubling of returns. The trend remains healthy, and there are expectations for the launch of spot and contract trading soon!
$KEKIUS
Soaring past 66 million dollars
In just a few days, the 'mouthy account' @gork became popular due to repeated interactions with Tesla founder Elon Musk, driving the meme coin $gork's market value to briefly surge to 100 million dollars. However, the winds can change quickly—early this morning, Musk first changed his nickname back to 'Elon Musk', then changed it again to 'Kekius Maximus', with the profile picture also updated to a related MEME image. This inspired a surge in the meme coin Kekius Maximus.
According to Dexscreener data, the meme coin $KEKIUS (address: 0x26e550ac11b26f78a04489d5f20f24e3559f7dd9) deployed on Ethereum soared from $0.0027 to $0.06638 in less than 2 hours, with an increase of 146%, and the market value exceeded 66.38 million.
