Master Bao's speech last night focused on the adjustment of the monetary policy framework, suggesting a return to traditional inflation targeting and a more flexible attitude towards the labor market, maintaining high interest rates in the short term to observe inflation trends.
PPI data performed better than expected, with both annual and monthly rates declining and below market expectations.
Previously, CME had a 63.3% expectation of no rate cuts in July. Theoretically, a decrease in PPI could increase the probability of rate cuts in July, but the Fed's inflation expectations need to wait for tariff implementations, and current data is unlikely to fundamentally change their judgment.
Retail data released at 0.1%, which is lower than the previous value but has achieved positive growth.
BTC sentiment is positive, while U.S. stocks are responding quietly; further observation is needed.
$BTC
This consolidation range is very clear.
The upper pressure is at 105000, and the lower support is at 100800. If resistance is encountered above, one can short; if support is encountered below, one can long until a breakthrough occurs in one direction.
This kind of trend will need to wait for news to break the situation. Before that, try to make short-term trades as much as possible.
$ETH
After breaking below the 2600 level, it began to decline all the way down, hitting a low of around 2480 yesterday before starting to rebound!
Completely in line with the strong rebound I mentioned; if the second type of market rebounds strongly, it will consolidate at the 2600-2480 level before continuing to surge.
Currently looking at the 2-hour chart, ETH2600 is a small pressure point at the moment. A breakthrough will lead to a surge, but the increase may not be ideal. We need to wait for a consolidation before we can gain momentum for a rise.
It could either continue to pull back to the 2400 level and consolidate for a while before surging to the 2800-3000 range.
Just keep waiting; market prices will give you the answer. Don't rush when trading; the more anxious you are, the easier it is to make mistakes.
Altcoins:
Current altcoins are experiencing significant declines; during this phase, everyone should not be afraid. When the market is down, prepare to ambush the altcoins that rebound the strongest. When Bitcoin hits an ATH, market confidence will be restored, and altcoins will soar again.
1- $BroccoliF3B
Increased holdings in BroccoliF3B; if it drops further from this position, I will continue to add to my holdings. When the total open contracts exceed the market value, it is also the meme contract with the lowest market value on Binance. This operator is very aggressive: at one point, it washed out to over 9 million and then surged to 90 million.
2- $AFT
Old coins are active, and official Twitter has updated. Sweet girl, remember this AFT that was previously on Alpha and Innovation Zone? It previously had no liquidity, but suddenly there was a bit, so I built a small position to observe.
3- The game token $nxpc that captured the attention of the entire network yesterday.
It's finally online, peaking at around $3.8, with an FDV reaching about $3.8 billion. However, with the release of airdrops, it briefly dropped to around 2.48 last night. After the airdrops are released, this game will be a focus for the studio, and the subsequent performance is expected to be quite good. Pay close attention; many gold farming studios will likely rush into MapleStory.
Where are the real opportunities in the second half of the year?
The altcoin sector is showing divergence; the surging MEME sector has already shown signs of profit-taking, while other altcoins like ETH's ecosystem have also pulled back significantly from their highs.
Individuals tend to prefer a pullback; the altcoin market remains strong, but sectors may switch.
1- Fed interest rate cut expectations.
If U.S. stocks fluctuate or economic data weakens in the second half of the year, the market may reignite interest rate cut expectations. History shows that easing cycles often drive capital inflows into the crypto market, benefiting mainstream coins like Bitcoin from a reversal in liquidity expectations. The current pullback allows space for potential market movements, requiring close attention to policy turnaround signals.
2- Dual main lines of AI and Meme.
In the AI track, projects with on-chain data applications, DeFi strategy optimization, and other practical scenarios are more resilient; Meme coins need to focus on targets with strong community propagation and social virality. The market has entered the 'eliminating the fake and retaining the true' phase, and purely conceptual projects will be eliminated. Focusing on assets with substantial progress or strong consensus is key.
3- Opportunities in the Ethereum ecosystem.
Ethereum's resilience has been highlighted during fluctuations. If positive news such as the Cancun upgrade materializes, improved on-chain efficiency will activate the Layer 2 ecosystem, driving the revival of DeFi and NFT sectors. Blue-chip projects within its ecosystem (like UNI, AAVE) may become new targets for capital, shifting the market from a 'leading role' to 'ecosystem resonance'.
Market divergence will intensify in the second half of the year; the illusion of a broad market rally should be discarded. Focus on policy-sensitive mainstream coins, clearly defined AI/Meme targets, and core assets in the Ethereum ecosystem, laying out projects with real value during fluctuations.