The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 96.5%

According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 96.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by August is 74.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 24.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.8%.

Specifically, the CME "Fed Watch" tool shows that the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged in June is as high as 96.5%. This probability shows that the market generally expects the Fed to take a wait-and-see attitude and not make immediate interest rate adjustments. At the same time, the data shows that at the same meeting, the Fed has a 3.5% chance of choosing a 25 basis point rate cut. Although this probability is small, it still reflects the market's concerns about economic slowdown and expectations for loose monetary policy. #美联储何时降息？ #美联储基准利率 #降息 #利率