美联储基准利率

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 71.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 28.5%. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 45.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 44.0%; the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 10.2%. #美联储基准利率

💥BTC market this week is mainly volatile!

1. CPI data

Beijing time: 20:30 on June 12, 2024 Expected value:

The overall CPI year-on-year increase is expected to be 3.4%, and the month-on-month increase is expected to be 0.1%

Impact on the currency circle: CPI data is an important indicator of the US inflation level. If it is lower than expected, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates this year. This loose interest rate policy is more favorable to risky assets such as the currency circle, and the currency circle is likely to rise.

If the data is higher than expected, the interest rate cut will be delayed. If the interest rate is cut blindly, it may trigger domestic inflation. This tightening policy will have a very adverse impact on the cryptocurrency market.

2. Federal Reserve interest rate decision

Release time: 2 am on June 13, 2024, Beijing time Expected: The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged

Forecasts for future interest rates and Powell's press conference: If the Federal Reserve predicts a decrease in the number of interest rate cuts in the future, it may reduce the market's expectations for loose monetary policy, which is unfavorable to risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.

If this article is useful to you, then you might as well pay attention. During this period, Si Qing is preparing to ambush several ten-fold coins. Introduction to the cooking industry Lian Xi me, no threshold to take you on the bus #cpi #美联储基准利率

2024 Fed rate cut 50 basis points? Traders predict!

2024 Fed rate cut 50 basis points: traders' bold expectations

Interest rate options market traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates sharply, by about 75 basis points by the first quarter of 2025, in stark contrast to Fed officials' forecast of a 25 basis point cut by the end of 2024 and a total of 125 basis points by the end of 2025. The article also analyzes the factors driving the Fed's expectations of a sharp rate cut, including the situation in the bond market, economic data, statements by Fed officials, and key market indicators. In addition, the article explores the impact of the Fed's sharp rate cut on the economy and investors.

1. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2024 and about 75 basis points by the first quarter of 2025.

2. Fed officials predict a 25 basis point cut by the end of 2024 and a total of 125 basis points by the end of 2025.

3. Factors driving the Fed's expectations of a sharp rate cut include the situation in the bond market, economic data, statements from Fed officials, and key market indicators.

4. The impact of the Fed's sharp rate cut on the economy and investors includes possible signals of a weakening economy, possible pressure on the Fed, and possible reconsideration of asset allocation by investors.

#美联储利率决议即将公布 #美联储何时降息？ #美联储基准利率
$FET $AGIX $LDO
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At 2.00-2.30 am tomorrow, the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's speech will be released. Compared with the dot plot released by the Fed in March, the Fed's core view is that three interest rate cuts this year will remain, and there will be three more interest rate cuts in 2025. Since the release, there have been further signs of continued inflation, while the labor market has also performed strongly. Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the May meeting also hinted that interest rates may have to be maintained.
According to a Bloomberg survey, 41% of economists expect the median interest rate forecast to indicate two interest rate cuts in 2024, while 41% expect the median interest rate forecast to indicate only one interest rate cut or no interest rate cut at all. #美联储利率决议即将公布 #美联储降息周期 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #美联储基准利率 #比特币走势分析

Will the Federal Reserve Cut Rates Soon? The Probability of a 25 Basis Point Cut in November is as High as 95%!
According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the market expects a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in November, while the probability of maintaining the current rate in the 4.75%-5.00% range is only 5%. How will this change affect market liquidity and investor sentiment?
As expectations for a rate cut heat up, market sentiment may also shift, and investors need to closely monitor related dynamics to seize potential investment opportunities. Old Lin reminds everyone to maintain a sharp market sense to cope with possible market fluctuations!
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Big event!

Big news!

End of the petrodollar agreement: A sea change in the global economy

Last Sunday, a major event occurred in the international economic and financial system of this century. The 50-year-old petrodollar agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States was announced to end. This event may affect the entire dollar system, threaten the dollar's international reserve currency status, and then push up domestic inflation and borrowing costs in the United States, affecting every ordinary person who holds dollars or dollar-denominated assets.

The dollar's status as a world reserve currency has given the United States superpowers of economic stability and rising asset prices, but all this will change after the end of the petrodollar agreement. Domestic inflation in the United States may rise, borrowing costs will increase, and the economy will face challenges.

The end of the petrodollar is part of a larger trend, and many countries have gradually abandoned the use of the dollar in international settlements and oil transactions. This may lead to the end of the United States' global financial dominance and the transfer of international financial hegemony.

For ordinary people, we need to pay attention to the impact of this event on life and wealth. In terms of investment, we need to be more cautious, diversify risks, and pay attention to other investment opportunities. At the same time, we also need to pay attention to changes in the global economy and adapt to the new economic environment.

This event marks a huge shift in the global economy. We need to pay close attention to future developments and be prepared to respond.
$NOT $PEPE $UNI
#美联储利率决议即将公布 #美联储降息周期 #美联储主席鲍威尔讲话 #美联储基准利率

The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 96.5%

According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 96.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.5%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by August is 74.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 24.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.8%.

Specifically, the CME "Fed Watch" tool shows that the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged in June is as high as 96.5%. This probability shows that the market generally expects the Fed to take a wait-and-see attitude and not make immediate interest rate adjustments. At the same time, the data shows that at the same meeting, the Fed has a 3.5% chance of choosing a 25 basis point rate cut. Although this probability is small, it still reflects the market's concerns about economic slowdown and expectations for loose monetary policy. #美联储何时降息？ #美联储基准利率 #降息 #利率

Big news that will affect the crypto market next week: On May 2, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting and announce the interest rate decision. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "Federal Reserve Watch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in May is 95.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 89.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 10.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.3%. ​​​#美联储基准利率 #Megadrop

As Powell is about to speak, the market has shown a certain expected volatility. Judging from the current market conditions, Bitcoin seems to be seeking stability in the range of 59,500 to 61,500, while Ethereum fluctuates in its range of 2,570 to 2,680, showing a certain volatility. As for SOL, its trend remains in a narrow range of 140 to 146, further confirming the cautious sentiment of the market.
In response to Powell's speech, the market generally expects that the rate cut may not be as large as some investors expect, and the frequency of rate cuts may also be lower than the three times predicted by the market. This expectation has been reflected in risky assets such as US stocks in advance, showing an accelerated decline. This phenomenon reveals the market's early digestion of expectations for rate cuts, as well as the sensitivity and uncertainty of the future direction of monetary policy.

Focus: Powell's speech tonight is right. He needs to clearly convey the message that the rate cut will be larger or more frequent this year to reignite the market's bullish sentiment. If Powell's remarks fail to meet this expectation of the market, it is likely to be regarded as bad news.
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#美联储基准利率
Now the Fed has announced that it will slow down the balance sheet reduction from June. The rate of reduction of US debt holdings will be reduced from US$60 billion to US$25 billion per month, and the rate of reduction of mortgage-backed securities will remain unchanged at US$35 billion per month. This slowdown in balance sheet reduction is still quite large. It can be regarded as a gradual relaxation of monetary policy. From the definition of balance sheet expansion (water release), slowing down the balance sheet reduction from June is not equivalent to water release. But it means reducing the speed of fund recovery, which will help keep funds in the market abundant and offset the liquidity tightening effect brought about by high interest rates.

The following figure is the structure of the Fed's liabilities and the trend chart of the Fed's balance sheet.

The balance of the Fed's balance sheet is about US$7.3 trillion, and the reduction is much lower than before. The current value of currency in circulation remains basically unchanged, and the overnight reverse repurchase and the balance of the Treasury TGA have both declined.

The liquidity of the US dollar has been on the rise recently (but there has been no substantial major turn). Perhaps this is the driving force behind the continued rise of the S&P due to the stimulus of sentiment and expectations, coupled with the fact that Nvidia's financial report data is too good. Expectations for AI have mobilized sentiment. Stimulate the upward breakthrough. BTC is also rising, which is a double positive in terms of sentiment and real money (but it is still far from real expansion of the balance sheet (releasing money))

June is coming, and the slowdown of balance sheet reduction will be officially implemented. We will wait and see the performance of the risk market (especially BTC)

ETFs are slowly starting to show red
That is, the ETFs expected earlier are starting to be saturated in the short term, and even the previous profit-making stocks are flowing out
The US ETF hot money has almost entered the market, and now it is the turn of HK ETF to pass. The Americans are throwing the stocks at a high price to the buyers. Next, let's see how many leeks will take over HK ETFs (I feel that the data will be very poor after passing, and there will not be many orders)
So I personally think that the market will adjust in the short term [now in the middle of this stage], and the second wave of funds will continue to flow in and rise after a series of killings
So I am still not optimistic about the market in the short term.
I still take the needle and short.
#ETF

Speaking of which, this data is very scary. Now it is the weekend so there will be no ETF data, but I think the data on Monday is quite important. There is a high probability that it will still flow out, and it has accumulated for two days, so it will look bigger, which will scare a group of people again. And if the outflow continues for three days, it will cause some panic trading.

However, the outflow data on the 26th is less than that on the 25th, but it still does not explain too many problems. After all, BlackRock has not received any money for three days. If it starts to flow out next, it will panic.

Everyone is now dizzy and there is no logic in this market. So now everyone is more sensitive and nervous. Any news will cause a sharp rise and fall.

In addition, there will be several data to be announced from 5.1 to 5.3. At that time, it is estimated that there will be various shocks.

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