When it comes to long-term value investing, there are several important points in practice:
Investment target, entry timing, position building plan, exit timing
Naturally, you must choose a stable investment target so that you can hold it for a long time. BTC and ETH are definitely the first choices. Needless to say, there is no problem in holding these two for more than 10 years.
In addition to BTC and ETH, if you want to allocate other digital assets, you must choose blue-chip coins, that is, those project tokens that are leading in the segmented track, whose ecosystem has been developed, and is still developing further. The expected increase in these blue-chip coins in the next bull market is likely to be greater than that of BTC and ETH, and they are also relatively stable and safe, with no risk of returning to zero.
Personally, I am more optimistic about two infrastructure tracks: Layer 2 and storage. I think the next bull market will usher in a big explosion in the application layer, and a large number of applications will need to rely on Layer 2 and storage infrastructure. However, there are not many projects in these two tracks, but I will only pick a few blue chips. Layer2 projects are currently mainly represented by Arbitrum and Optimism. On the storage track, Filecoin and Arweave have attracted more attention.
When choosing multiple investment targets, you must make a good asset allocation. You should focus on BTC and ETH and not on other currencies. In addition, it is recommended to diversify your investments. LUNA and FTX, which were once considered blue-chip coins by many, will also collapse, and many investors who have heavy positions in LUNA or FTX will suffer heavy losses. Therefore, when allocating these currencies, you must not place heavy positions to prevent thunderstorms.
The timing of entry will directly affect your currency holding costs. The best time to enter is naturally at the bottom of every bear market. But in fact, most people can't do it. People who want to buy the bottom are more likely to do it halfway up the mountain.
Once you have determined the time to enter, you need to consider the plan for building a position. There are many plans for building a position to choose from.
The simplest and crudest solution is that as long as the ahr999 indicator drops below 0.45, use all the funds you want to invest to open a position at once, then deposit it directly into your wallet and forget about it. The advantage is that it is simple and crude, requires the least investment of time and energy, and is very suitable for lazy people to operate.The disadvantage is that the price may fall further and you will not be able to get a better buying price.
If you want to get a lower buying price, you can optimize it a little and wait for the indicator to fall below 0.40 before opening a position. Historical data shows that at the bottom of every bear market, the indicator will appear below 0.40 or even below 0.30. However, the lower the indicator, the lower the probability of occurrence. If you do not watch the market often, you may not be able to seize the ultra-low price. Indicator opportunities.
You can also try another optimization plan, dividing the funds to build a position in several times. For example, it can be divided into three funds. The first one is opened when the ahr999 indicator drops to 0.40, the second one is entered when the indicator drops to 0.35, and the third one is entered. Wait until the indicator drops to 0.30 to enter. If you cannot wait for the opportunity of 0.30, you can execute a position when the indicator returns to 0.35. In the same way, if you do not wait for the opportunity of 0.35, you can also open a position when it returns to 0.40.
In addition to ladder-based position building based on indicators, ladder-based warehouse building can also be carried out based on price. For example, when the indicator drops to 0.40 and the Bitcoin price is 25,000, you can open a position for the first time at 25,000, and then place orders in steps of 1,000, at 24,000, 23,000, 22,000, 21,000, and 20,000. Place orders at several positions respectively. If you can get all of them, that's the best. If you can't get the ones below, then you can open a position when the price rises to the previous level.
In addition, for many working people, the funds used to build a position are not a one-time investment. As the monthly income accumulates, they can continue to invest in building a position. For this type of people, I think the better plan is to start a long-term fixed investment plan after the opportunity to buy the bottom line appears. Even if the index rises above the bottom line, it can continue to execute as long as it is still below the fixed investment line. For fixed investment, it is recommended to make fixed investment on a daily basis. If conditions permit, it can even be done on an hourly basis. I have a friend who wrote a special investment program that automatically determines investment by the hour.
The last thing to consider is the timing of exit. The ideal time to exit is at the peak of a bull market, but successfully escaping from the top is more difficult than buying the bottom in a bear market, and most people cannot do it.
The long-term investment plan is actually to make money during the market cycle. It is also the most stable way to make money. The longer you hold it, the more you will make.
