La Mariposa

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La Mariposa

I love trading and technical analysis. Financial markets as a lifestyle. Do what you love every day and don't forget to thank God for what you have.

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Bullish

MicroStrategy stock dropped another 6% today, and it really looks like the pressure on the company isn’t over.

My speculation: someone is trying to squeeze Bitcoin out of Saylor — at a discount.

A couple of days ago the CEO publicly said they are “ready to sell,” and I don’t think that line was accidental. Messages like that are usually meant for very specific ears.

If they actually end up selling part (or all) of their BTC stack, the market might not even notice it — OTC deals don’t move the price. Which means the chart may show… nothing at all.

Here’s what the pressure looks like step by step:

· the stock keeps dropping,

· no capital inflow,

· balance-sheet pressure increases,

· room for maneuver shrinks,

· the only liquid option left is selling BTC.

We might be watching exactly that play out.

And I really hope $BTC doesn’t need to crash to 30k for Saylor to capitulate.

The big players building their ETFs may have very different plans — and it feels like we’re starting to see those plans in action.

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Bullish

$BTC My short signal on the monthly timeframe has been invalidated on the MACD. This doesn’t necessarily mean immediate growth, but the 80k level is a key support. If it breaks, we’re likely heading into a crypto winter.

For now, I’m not taking short positions — I’m positioning long.
There’s a possibility that Bitcoin is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a target around 106k. The invalidation of the potential right shoulder would be a move below 85k.

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Bullish

NASDAQ has officially made tokenized stocks a priority. If they launch this, the capital flowing into crypto could be unlike anything we’ve seen.

The U.S. stock market is worth ~$50T. Even if 1% gets tokenized, that’s $500B moving on-chain. Analysts expect the tokenization market to reach $2–5T by 2030 — and Nasdaq shifting equities to blockchain could make that real.

Why Ethereum is the most likely platform

The infrastructure already exists:

BlackRock, Fidelity and Franklin Templeton use Ethereum; the largest on-chain treasuries and tokenized funds live in the ETH ecosystem; institutions call Ethereum the only public network that’s settlement-grade.

Ethereum is becoming a financial layer, not “just crypto.”

Vitalik’s upgrades — Danksharding, Proto-Danksharding, higher L2 throughput, cheaper data — all aim to prepare Ethereum for institutional capital.

This is a fundamental rebuild of the network for financial-market load: tokenized bonds, funds, stablecoins, equities, clearing and settlement. Ethereum is turning into the place where global infrastructure can migrate.

What it means for $ETH

If Nasdaq’s tokenized stocks and other real-world assets live on Ethereum or L2s, this will increase gas usage, boost validator revenue, strengthen network security and create steady demand for ETH — turning it into a global settlement layer.

Tokenized stocks aren’t a separate market. They’re the same equities, same rights, just on-chain. Nasdaq isn’t building an alternative — they’re moving traditional markets onto blockchain rails.

🔥 If this happens, crypto may finally access capital measured in trillions — with Ethereum as the main infrastructure carrying that flow.

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A super full moon is coming. Full moons amplify people’s emotions — not because of mysticism, but biology. The bright night light disrupts your circadian rhythm, messes with your sleep, raises cortisol, and makes you more anxious and impulsive.

But we can control our emotions… can’t we? 🌚

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$BTC — key levels: $82,000 and $98,000.
If we break above $98K, a new all-time high becomes likely. If we move below $82K, there’s a high probability of revisiting the $60K area and entering a crypto winter. For now the market looks uncertain today, so I want to see how things develop. The monthly close is crucial.

$ETH — possible local H&S pattern, target around $3,500 (which also aligns with the daily MA50/200 — a trend-change signal). It’s important to hold $2,960 to continue the move.
Strong resistance is at $3,800. Support sits in the $2,500–2,700 zone, which has already been tested — if we revisit it again, the next level opens up around the $2,000 area.
There’s a divergence forming on the 4h timeframe, so a local trend break is possible. For now I’m watching my long positions, with the stop moved to breakeven around $2,800.

$XRP still hasn’t played out the divergence on the monthly timeframe. There’s a strong risk of forming a double top if we close below $2, although market makers are still fighting here and we can see a long signal on the daily.
But I still have the feeling we may see another low — and not only on XRP.

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The FOMC meeting on December 9–10 is one of the key macro events that could impact the crypto market. Most analysts lean toward a rate cut, which would signal a return of liquidity.

I’m also waiting for Ethereum’s upcoming upgrade, and honestly, it would be a perfect moment for Larry’s fund to finally get approval for $ETH staking.

Altcoins are showing long signals on the daily timeframes, so I’m taking long positions.

I think December is going to be fun.

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If $ETH grows, here are the top 10 coins that, according to AI, could benefit from it. I’ll give the technical analysis on them later.

🔎 Top 10 Ethereum-based tokens that may look interesting

Uniswap (UNI)
One of the largest decentralized exchanges (DEX) on Ethereum. If Ethereum rises, on-chain activity increases, and UNI benefits from higher fees and liquidity.
Aave (AAVE)
A major DeFi lending/borrowing protocol. When ETH grows, demand for lending and borrowing rises, and AAVE gains from an increase in TVL (total value locked).

Curve (CRV)
A protocol for swapping stablecoins with minimal slippage. Growing DeFi activity and stablecoin/ETH-derivative volume can make Curve one of the key players.
Maker (MKR)
Governance token of MakerDAO, the creator of DAI. DAI is one of the most widely used stablecoins on Ethereum, and a rise in DeFi boosts the importance of MakerDAO.

Synthetix (SNX)
A protocol for creating synthetic assets. Growth of Ethereum often stimulates demand for derivatives and synthetic assets, making Synthetix potentially attractive.
Compound (COMP)
Another major lending/borrowing protocol. COMP is a key governance token and benefits as the platform expands.

Lido DAO (LDO)
The token of Lido, the leading ETH liquid staking protocol. If institutions start staking ETH massively (e.g., through ETFs), Lido may play a major role since it provides liquid staked ETH (stETH).
Yearn Finance (YFI)
An automated yield aggregator. With ETH growth, demand for yield strategies may increase, and Yearn stands to benefit.

Chainlink (LINK)
A decentralized oracle network that provides external data to smart contracts. Many Ethereum-based DeFi protocols rely on oracles, so LINK demand can grow with the sector.
Dai (DAI)
A stablecoin built on Ethereum and governed by MakerDAO. During periods of ETH or DeFi expansion, demand for stablecoins often increases — for borrowing, collateral, and trading.

Not a call to buy — analysis is still needed.

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Bullish

I’m expecting a price pause on $BTC soon — the probability is high. On the daily timeframe we’re extremely oversold, and many altcoins are showing clear bullish divergences, which usually signal at least a slowdown.

I don’t rule out a deeper move toward the $60k–70k range, especially with the current frustration around the stock selloff and large players exiting MSTR. If we can hold the $80k zone, BTC has a good chance to enter a wide consolidation range between $80k and $108k. If we fail to hold it, the probability of a crypto winter increases sharply — with a real chance of a deep panic sell.
For now, I’m leaning toward the long side. I’m long on ETH: I think Ethereum might partially decouple from BTC thanks to the staking ETF narrative, and alts may also show strength once BTC stabilizes.

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Bullish

$ETH — Mid-term view

I don’t rule out a deeper move toward the $1800 zone, but on the daily and 3D/4D timeframes ETH is already showing clear signs of a pause: local oversold conditions, MACD convergence, and a test of the global trendline. I’m positioning long here with the idea that ETH is strong enough for buyers to step in before tagging the lower zone.

Technically, ETH is still the only attractive setup for me right now: large-scale consolidation with compression toward the $4200–4500 resistance area, where a breakout could open the way into “open sky.”

Local structure:

The first major resistance zone is $3500 — confluence of MAs + the level where the market would need to request a trend reversal confirmation.

Working the daily-TF signal first; the rest we’ll reassess as structure develops.

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$BTC

Right now we’re testing the 78–82k zone. The trend reversal is obvious — both MA and MACD signaled it earlier. At the moment, I don’t see a clear buy signal, but there’s no clean sell signal either.

The next strong support level is around 70k — we had a 60–70k range there, so if we retest it, there’s a chance for a bounce. For now, the current price level doesn’t look convincing for the bulls.

On the lower timeframes, we have strong oversold conditions, which increases the probability of a pause, some sideways movement. I’m not rushing into longs — I want to see more confident long signals first.

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Bearish

MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) faces a serious risk of being excluded from major indices.

MSCI Inc. has launched a consultation on potentially removing companies whose digital assets (such as Bitcoin) account for more than 50% of their total assets. According to the document, such companies may be classified not as regular operating corporations but as investment funds — which would make them ineligible for key equity indices (and, indirectly, for the S&P 500 as well, since S&P often aligns with MSCI).

The consultation runs until December 31, 2025, with a final decision expected on January 15, 2026, and potential implementation during the February 2026 rebalancing.

Why this matters: MicroStrategy, which holds a significant share of its assets in Bitcoin, may be forced out of these indices. If MSCI adopts the new rule, index funds will be required to sell MSTR shares — potentially amounting to billions of dollars in outflows.

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According to official data, NVIDIA Corporation will report its Q3 FY26 earnings after the U.S. market close on November 19.

Why NVIDIA’s Earnings Could Become a Turning Point for the Stock Market (and Crypto)
1. NVIDIA has been the main engine of market growth for the past two years

Up to 40% of NASDAQ and S&P 500 gains came from NVDA alone. If NVIDIA slows down, the entire market could shift downward.

2. Expectations are extremely high

Analysts are pricing in near-perfect numbers.
That means even a “strong but not spectacular” report might disappoint investors and trigger a negative reaction.
3. AI is the market’s dominant narrative

The market rally of the last two years is built on the belief that AI is a revolution — and NVIDIA is at its center.
Any signs of weakness threaten that foundation.

4. Large funds are heavily concentrated in AI
Institutional capital is deeply allocated into NVDA, MSFT, and other AI giants.
If NVIDIA drops, funds may be forced to take profits and rebalance, creating a domino effect.

5. NVIDIA is part of the “Magnificent 7”

These seven companies make up an outsized share of the S&P 500.
A decline in NVDA could hit all major indices hard.
6. The market is overbought and waiting for a trigger

Indices are near their highs.
In such conditions, even a minor shock can cause a sharp correction.

7. Historical pattern
Major market reversals often begin with earnings misses from leading companies.
Today, capital concentration in NVIDIA is higher than ever — making this report a potential “point of no return.”

8. Large players have started selling NVIDIA

Some institutional investors have already begun taking profits:
SoftBank has unloaded multi-billion positions, and several hedge funds have trimmed their exposure.
If this trend continues, it could pressure NVDA and the entire chip/AI sector.

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Bearish

The most dangerous scenario for $BTC right now would be seeing a bearish engulfing candle on the monthly chart — a monthly close around 80k. In that case, our next target would be 60k. Of course, there is strong support around 80k: the trendline and a major horizontal level. There will be a fight there if the price fails to hold the current 90k zone. But a drop to 80k could send us into a crypto winter. A correction to 80k, however, would still be a healthy pullback after a massive rally — a trendline retest that could potentially lead to the next impulse and a new ATH.

On the daily chart, we have a level around 90k that has already been broken; the market is oversold, but I'm not rushing into longs — still observing. Altcoins are acting strange, barely reacting to BTC’s drop, but for some of them there’s simply nowhere left to fall… except into another universe.

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There is a possibility that major capital is leaving the chip sector — especially noticeable with NVIDIA. This may also be an indirect signal of a continued decline in the crypto market, which is considered a risk-on asset that large investors tend to exit first.

Peter Thiel / Thiel Macro

Sold: ~537,742 shares of NVIDIA ≈ $100 million

Sold ~76% of Tesla shares (from ~272k down to ~65k)

SoftBank

Sold: ~32.1 million shares of NVIDIA ≈ $5.8 billion

Michael Burry / Scion

Put options: ~1 million shares of NVIDIA + ~5 million shares of Palantir totaling a nominal value of about $1.1 billion

🤔 What can be inferred from this

Major investors are clearly reducing exposure to overheated AI/chip sectors.

Burry is openly betting on a decline in NVIDIA and Palantir.

Thiel is exiting hype-driven AI and EV (Tesla) assets.

SoftBank is locking in profits and reallocating capital.

Altogether, this looks like a preparation for a potential correction in the high-tech sector.

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What’s the Difference Between DCA, Pyramiding, and Adding to a Winning Position in Equal Parts?In trading, people often mix up three completely different ways of adding to a position. They may look similar on a chart, but the logic, risk, and results are absolutely different. Let’s break it down in simple terms. 1️⃣ DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) An investing strategy — not a trading strategy. Essence: buying with equal amounts regardless of where the price is going. The goal is to smooth your average price over the long term. Features: additions are fixed-size; often used when the price is falling, to improve the average; no signals or confirmations required; not designed for short-term trading. 👉 Conclusion: DCA = mechanical averaging. Works for long-term accumulation, not active trading. 2️⃣ Pyramiding A professional trading technique. Essence: add to a position only when the market moves in your favor and only after new trend confirmations — breakouts, retests, patterns. Features: each addition is smaller than the previous one; the average entry worsens very little (or almost not at all); risk increases smoothly and controllably; used only in strong trends. 👉 Conclusion: Pyramiding = building the position from the top down, letting the market prove its strength. It’s a professional-level risk management technique. 3️⃣ Adding to a Winning Position in Equal Parts The most common approach among active traders. Essence: the position is increased with equal-sized additions (for example: 1x → 1x → 1x) as the price moves in your favor. Features: each addition has the same size; the average price worsens more than with pyramiding; risk rises faster; effective in trends but prone to overloading the position if the trend breaks suddenly. 👉 Conclusion: This is something between DCA and pyramiding. It works, but requires caution to avoid pushing the average too high. What’s Important to Understand? DCA is not trading — it’s a long-term accumulation tool. Pyramiding is about risk management and market structure. Equal-size additions in profit are viable but riskier than they look, because the average climbs quickly. In trading, there is no “perfect” strategy — only the one that fits your style, risk tolerance, and holding timeframe. But understanding the difference matters, so you don’t confuse three fundamentally different approaches.

What’s the Difference Between DCA, Pyramiding, and Adding to a Winning Position in Equal Parts?

In trading, people often mix up three completely different ways of adding to a position.
They may look similar on a chart, but the logic, risk, and results are absolutely different.
Let’s break it down in simple terms.
1️⃣ DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging)
An investing strategy — not a trading strategy.
Essence: buying with equal amounts regardless of where the price is going.
The goal is to smooth your average price over the long term.
Features:
additions are fixed-size;
often used when the price is falling, to improve the average;
no signals or confirmations required;
not designed for short-term trading.
👉 Conclusion:
DCA = mechanical averaging.
Works for long-term accumulation, not active trading.
2️⃣ Pyramiding
A professional trading technique.
Essence: add to a position only when the market moves in your favor
and only after new trend confirmations — breakouts, retests, patterns.
Features:
each addition is smaller than the previous one;
the average entry worsens very little (or almost not at all);
risk increases smoothly and controllably;
used only in strong trends.
👉 Conclusion:
Pyramiding = building the position from the top down, letting the market prove its strength.
It’s a professional-level risk management technique.
3️⃣ Adding to a Winning Position in Equal Parts
The most common approach among active traders.
Essence: the position is increased with equal-sized additions
(for example: 1x → 1x → 1x) as the price moves in your favor.
Features:
each addition has the same size;
the average price worsens more than with pyramiding;
risk rises faster;
effective in trends but prone to overloading the position if the trend breaks suddenly.
👉 Conclusion:
This is something between DCA and pyramiding.
It works, but requires caution to avoid pushing the average too high.
What’s Important to Understand?
DCA is not trading — it’s a long-term accumulation tool.
Pyramiding is about risk management and market structure.
Equal-size additions in profit are viable but riskier than they look, because the average climbs quickly.
In trading, there is no “perfect” strategy — only the one that fits your style, risk tolerance, and holding timeframe.
But understanding the difference matters, so you don’t confuse three fundamentally different approaches.

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When we open a chart and watch the price move, we enter the crowd, and it changes our perception. Our actions and decisions become heavily influenced by our emotional state. This is a psychological mechanism — even though the crowd is online, it is still a crowd. It’s important to remember this.

Ask yourself: “Who is trading right now?”

A gambler?

A wounded child?

A professional?

An analyst?

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Bearish

$BTC on the weekly chart has dropped below the 50-week MA (103k), which is a very strong short signal. The top indicators are working because many traders watch them. It also closed the daily below the important psychological level of 100k. I’m not considering buying yet, as I’m wary of a potential acceleration of the downward impulse. A strong support level is in the 80k zone. If it returns to 100k, I’ll consider buying.

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Bearish

$BTC is forming a flag — a trend continuation pattern.
For the uptrend to resume, price needs to break above 108K, ideally above 112K. Everything below these levels still fits short scenarios for me. The monthly timeframe remains bearish.

Flag Pattern Rules

1️⃣ Impulse before the flag (flagpole)

– Strong directional move with rising volume.

– At least several large candles in a row.

2️⃣ Correction (the flag itself)

– A small downward-sloping channel or rectangle against the main trend.

– Volatility and volume decrease.

3️⃣ Completion: breakout of the flag boundary

– Price moves beyond the channel in the direction of the initial trend.

– Breakout should be accompanied by increased volume.

4️⃣ Confirmation: retest or consolidation beyond the flag

– After the breakout, price holds above (for bullish) or below (for bearish) the flag line.

5️⃣ Target = length of the flagpole projected from the breakout point

– TP ≈ height of the impulse before the correction.

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Bearish

$BTC — we are currently playing out the long signal on the daily timeframe (MACD convergence). As long as we are trading below the daily 200/50 MA (~112k), and as long as the monthly timeframe divergence has not been fully resolved — my bearish bias remains unchanged.

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Bearish

$BTC 100K is fighting hard — as it should, there’s a cliff below to the next level.

Let’s see where the daily candle closes, but judging by the higher timeframes, I have some doubts about a new ATH and a “super alt season.”

We’re still overheated, and so are global indices.

It’s a very short-biased week for the stock market — and for top crypto this month as well.

Don’t loosen your buns just yet 😄

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