The U.S. and China concluded talks in Geneva. The official outcome is expected Monday. Here are 3 likely scenarios:

✅ Positive outcome (most likely)

Phased tariff reductions, China to increase U.S. imports, and a constructive tone from both sides.

📈 Markets: S&P, BTC, and commodities rise.

📉 DXY weakens, gold neutral.

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⚖️ Neutral outcome

Vague language like “ongoing dialogue,” with no specific steps.

📉 Markets: profit-taking, slight pullback in BTC and equities.

📈 DXY stable or rising.

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❌ Negative outcome (unlikely)

Talks fail. U.S. keeps tariffs, blames China.

📉 S&P and crypto sell off.

📈 Gold and USD rally.

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🎯 Most likely: a statement with details (tariff % or import commitments) will be published early Monday (NY/EU time).

→ If numbers are clear: bullish signal.

→ If it’s just diplomacy: disappointment likely.

📊 Expect volatility. Prepare for a sharp move.