Today is March 12, and the entire Internet is discussing the black swan event. Most people still have a preconceived hope that it will happen again (after all, it is too difficult to get on a bus now). However, today is destined to disappoint everyone. As early as February 28, Tangren’s article predicted that the black swan event this year would most likely not occur.
Looking back at the 312 Black Swan event, it was a special event that occurred under specific environmental factors. First, the once-in-a-century global COVID-19 outbreak caused an economic setback, followed by three circuit breakers in the U.S. stock market, the spectacle of negative crude oil, and a 40% intraday drop in the Dow Jones. Then, Bitmex pulled the network cable and was down for an hour on the day of 312, etc. The combination of many negative events finally caused the 312 Black Swan.
Looking at the current market, it can be said that it is bright and full of positive factors. Yesterday, Trump jumped out to promote Bitcoin and said that if he is re-elected as president, he will not crack down on the use of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies through regulatory agencies.
Judging from Biden’s unsatisfactory performance in the past two years since he took office, Trump’s chances of winning this year’s election are still quite high. If Trump is really elected, it will be another big boon to the cryptocurrency world.
At 8:30 tonight, the CPI data for February arrived as scheduled. According to the published data, the unadjusted CP1 annual rate for February was 3.2%, the highest since December last year, higher than the expected and previous value of 3.1%; the monthly rate was 0.4%, in line with expectations, and up from the previous value of 0.3%.
The core CPI annual rate in February was 3.8%, the lowest since May 2021, higher than the market expectation of 3.7% and lower than the market value of 3.9%; the monthly rate was 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.30% and the same as the previous value.
Through this data, Tangren drew several conclusions:
1. The Federal Reserve will most likely start cutting interest rates in June.
2. The 0.4% month-on-month increase in core CPI "will force a major shift in the tone of next week's FOMC meeting."
3. The rise in CPI may prompt the Federal Reserve to reassess its monetary policy. If inflationary pressure continues to increase, the Federal Reserve may consider raising interest rates to control inflation.
4. An increase in CPI means that consumers need to pay higher prices when purchasing goods and services, which may affect consumers' purchasing power and consumption habits.
5. After the CPI data is released, the financial market may react. If the CPI rises beyond market expectations, it may lead to a fall in the stock market and an increase in bond yields. This is a short-term risk. Such high interest rates in the United States in the long term are definitely not sustainable.
The direction of the stock market will directly affect the trend of funds and thus affect the rise and fall of currency prices. I don’t know if you have felt that this bull market does not feel as fierce as before, and the large fluctuations in currency prices are not as violent as the previous two times.
In fact, the reason is very simple. The current market makers have changed and the way of playing has become different. In the past, it was a collaboration between exchanges and dog dealers. They made profits from the price difference and handling fees by reaping the benefits of the drastic fluctuations in the price of coins.
Therefore, there are often violent shocks and fluctuations that lure investors to frequently place orders, get on and off the bus constantly, and then wash the market one after another.
Then the market makers were replaced by Wall Street institutions, and their profit method was no longer to earn transaction renewal fees but management fees. At present, the range of management fees is roughly maintained at 0.49-0.19%.
Just imagine, if the size of a plate is 10 billion, the management fee you charge is 0.49%. If the size of a plate is 100 billion, you still charge 0.49%. Do you want to make the plate 10 billion, 100 billion, or even bigger?
It’s easy to figure out that the bigger the plate, the better. The bigger the plate, the more people will play, and the more stable the management fees will be. So how can we get everyone to come in and play?
The answer is to keep pulling and buying until the market goes crazy and there is no stock in the market. So how to judge the recent market conditions? Tangren has shared with you many times in the article that you must pay attention to the ETF's import and export data.
As of last Friday, Grayscale's GBTC shipments were 220,000 coins, while 9 ETFs bought as many as 400,000 coins, with 33,000 coins bought last week alone. At present, the crazy buying behavior of institutions is still continuing.
The trend of Bitcoin remains healthy. After breaking through the 70,000-point mark, there has been a short-term shock consolidation. After stabilizing, Tangren believes that the market is still sprinting upward and the market is dominated by demand. In the future, we will think about the market with a bullish mindset and look forward to the next new high of Bitcoin.
It is necessary to fluctuate and consolidate after the new high. After Bitcoin has sucked the blood, it is the turn of the altcoins to rise again. Judging from today's trend, the overall sector adjustment is still not in place, and the chip structure has not been optimized to the extent that it can directly start to rise, and the conditions for starting are not yet met. If this round of adjustments can continue and be transmitted to a large level, Tangren believes that it will be a good opportunity to deploy high-quality altcoin assets again.
Finally, Tangren writes articles carefully every day in order to provide you with certain reference and decision-making value. If you think it is well written, please like, follow or forward it. This is the greatest encouragement and support to Tangren, and also the greatest motivation for Tangren.
