XRP experienced a strong upward trend at the beginning of this year, rising from around $1.5 in early January to a high of $3.8 in mid-February, an increase of over 150%. However, entering March, its price movement began to slow down, oscillating within a narrow range of $2.8 to $3.5. Although the overall upward trend has not changed, the recent fluctuations in price indicate that the token is in a critical stage of testing key support levels, and the performance during this stage will largely determine its subsequent trend direction.
The weekly chart shows divergence, and the long-term trend remains fundamentally unchanged.
From the weekly chart perspective, the market presents a certain complexity. Well-known analyst Josh pointed out in the latest analysis report that XRP currently exhibits a significant bearish divergence, and this signal has not yet been invalidated. Specifically, although the price has maintained a relatively high level recently, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has shown a downward trend, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening.
However, Josh also emphasized that despite such bearish signals, the overall bullish structure of XRP remains intact. From a weekly perspective, the moving average system still shows a bullish arrangement, with the 5-week, 10-week, and 20-week moving averages all trending upwards, providing support for the price. Long-term traders should remain vigilant at this time and avoid blindly chasing highs, waiting for clearer signals to emerge.
In summary, XRP is likely undergoing a process of accumulation and consolidation, building energy for further upward movement. However, in the short term, the volatile pattern may continue for some time, and investors need to take appropriate risk precautions.
Daily chart: The $2.97 - $3.10 range has become the focal point of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
The daily chart reflects the recent market contest in more detail. The XRP price is retesting the key range of $2.97 to $3.10, which has played the dual role of resistance and support multiple times in recent weeks.
Looking back at the price movements over the past month, around July 15th, the price attempted to break through $3.10 but failed and then retreated; on July 25th, the price rebounded after finding support around $2.97; on August 5th, it again failed to break $3.10; on August 15th, it once again stopped falling and rebounded at $2.97. This series of price movements has made this range the focus of market attention.
If the price can confirm a close below $2.97 and cannot recover that position in the following trading days, then the short-term bullish sentiment may be significantly weakened, and the price is likely to enter a broader sideways consolidation range, roughly between $2.6 and $3.1.
Conversely, if the bulls can successfully hold the position above $2.97 and strongly reclaim $3.10, it will form an effective breakout structure, greatly boosting market confidence and laying the foundation for the price to challenge $3.30.
From a downside perspective, if the price falls below $2.90, the current bullish pattern will face serious challenges. Losing this position may open up space for the price to retest deeper support levels around $2.85-$2.90, and investors need to closely monitor the defense at this level.
Key support and resistance levels worthy of attention.
In the current market environment, some key support and resistance levels need to be focused on:
The immediate support level is first at $2.97, which has acted as a support multiple times recently. If this level is lost, the next important support level will be $2.90.
The key support level is $2.79, which is an important watershed based on historical trends. Once this level is breached, it could trigger a deeper correction. According to technical analysis models, the target range may fall between $2.21 and $2.46.
Regarding resistance levels, $3.10 is a key point that bulls have attempted to break through multiple times recently. Once breached, the next resistance range will be between $3.30 and $3.40, which was an important resistance area during the upward process at the beginning of the year and has accumulated a considerable amount of trapped positions.
Currently, the main view in the market is that as long as XRP can stay above $2.79, there is a high possibility of forming a fourth wave bottom in September. From the perspective of Elliott Wave Theory, a fifth wave rebound is expected in the long term, targeting a price level of $5.
Elliott Wave Outlook: Bulls are still dominant.
Several market analysts have predicted that XRP may soon enter the fifth wave of the upward phase by tracking wave counts. The current correction, from the wave structure perspective, looks more like a healthy correction within the overall upward trend, a reasonable adjustment to the previous rise, which helps digest profit-taking and reduces pressure for subsequent increases.
However, some analysts have pointed out that market confidence remains relatively low until XRP clearly shows a distinct five-wave upward trend. After all, the current volatile movement has raised doubts among some investors about the subsequent upward momentum.
If the bullish scenario can be successfully realized, considering the historical trend's time cycle and upward amplitude, XRP is expected to rise to $5 within the next 3-6 months. However, if it fails to hold above the key support level of $2.79, the bearish scenario may become a reality, and the price could experience a larger correction, possibly testing the $2 integer mark.
Overall, XRP is currently in a critical stage of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Investors need to closely monitor the breakthrough of key support and resistance levels, as well as changes in market sentiment and capital flow, and operate cautiously.
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