Poor data (3 items): Non-farm revision (expected to be significantly downgraded), retail (expected to decline), CPI (expected to rise).
The first two items point to a downturn in the U.S. economy, which is the main reason for the interest rate cut expectations; the rise in CPI is within the Federal Reserve's tolerance (affected by tariffs).
Better data (1 item): PPI, expected to have limited impact on the market.
Current expectations: "Bad data turns into favorable conditions for rate cuts," with a 50 basis point rate cut probability of 11.8% in September.
Key point: If tonight's 10 PM non-farm revision exceeds expectations, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut may rise.
Optimistic perspective: It's too early to talk about a recession, and early rapid rate cuts may help curb recession risks. $BTC
