$ETH

ETH faces critical $4,550 resistance test with 60% probability of range-bound action ($4,200-$4,600) tomorrow.

Strong institutional accumulation vs. historical September weakness creates conflicting signals—breakout above $4,600 opens $5,000+ path, failure risks $3,800-$4,000 retest.

Sentiment & Derivatives Snapshot:

Funding rates: Neutral at 0.0001%-0.01% across exchanges ↔️

Open Interest: Near ATH at $55B+ for ETH, elevated but stable ↑

Options skew: 70% short-term IV, put/call ratio 0.77 (call-heavy) ↑

Perp basis: Contracted from 10% to 6.5% over past week ↓

On-chain flows: $356M whale accumulation, exchange outflows continue ↑

Tomorrow's Forecast (My Synthesis):

Trend: Range-bound with slight upward bias (60% probability)

Expected range: $4,200-$4,600, likely pin near $4,400 max pain level

Critical levels: R1: $4,550, R2: $4,750 | S1: $4,200, S2: $4,000

Invalidation: Break below $4,000 (bearish) or above $4,600 (bullish acceleration)

Alt-scenarios: (30%) Breakout to $4,750-$5,000 on continued ETF flows | (10%) Drop to $3,800-$4,000 on macro weakness

Quick Risk Alert:

September historically weak (-15% average), $4.6B options expiry creates volatility, conflicting signals between institutional accumulation and retail selling pressure. Watch Fed communication and equity market correlation—any macro deterioration could override bullish on-chain fundamentals.

Will ETF inflows drive ETH to $7,500, or will September’s sell-off crush every dream? Which side are you on — BULL 🐂 or BEAR 🐻?