🚨 Today is the day we’ve been waiting for – Friday, 5 September 2025 🚨
1️⃣ Weak Labor Market Report
🔸 August: only +22,000 jobs (vs. ~75,000 expected)
🔸 Unemployment up to 4.3% – data like forecast
👉 Signals cooling labor market → boosts chances of a Fed rate cut mid-September.
Market effect: stocks up, bond yields down, dovish bets rising.
2️⃣ Hope for Fed Cuts – Market Reaction
🔸 Asian markets in green, gold at highs.
🔸 S&P 500 hit a record ATH, fueled by slowdown fears + easing expectations.
3️⃣ Fed Independence Under Pressure
Trump nominates Stephen Miran (with WH ties) → critics flag conflict of interest.
Gov. Lisa Cook challenges her dismissal in court → unprecedented legal case testing Fed’s autonomy.
4️⃣ Fed Voices Weigh In
Gov. Waller backs series of cuts, data-dependent.
Reuters: markets already price in -25 bps in September, unless surprise rebound comes.
📊 Summary – What it means for markets:
🔸 Weak jobs → cuts more likely → bullish stocks, bearish yields.
🔸 Political pressure → uncertainty for Fed independence → volatility risk.
🔸 Fed members’ tone → confirms dovish bias, unless data flips.
🔥 The stage is set: weaker labor, political noise, and markets betting on cuts.
The only question: will Powell & Co. follow through?
