🚨 Weekly Macro Recap – 1st week of September 🚨
September has a reputation for being “Red Month” in markets… but this first week gave us some surprisingly bullish signals for risk assets – including crypto.
1️⃣ U.S. & Global Macro Data
🔸 PMI and factory orders came in weak – ISM slipped under 50 (contraction zone).
🔸 Oil fell ~1% after U.S. stockpiles jumped; OPEC+ talks about raising supply.
🔸 Gold pushed higher, equities in Asia & Europe followed suit, backed by Fed cut expectations.
2️⃣ U.S. Jobs Report – the big one
🔸 Only +22k jobs in August (vs. ~75k expected).
🔸 Unemployment rose to 4.3%, highest since 2021.
👉 Stocks rallied, yields dropped – markets are fully pricing in a September rate cut.
3️⃣ Fed & Policy Shifts
🔸 Fed’s Williams: “gradual cuts possible” if slowdown persists.
🔸 Market consensus: -25 bps mid-September is almost locked in.
🔸 Political noise around Fed independence (Miran nomination, Cook lawsuit) adds volatility.
4️⃣ What this means for us
🔸 Weak jobs = higher odds of rate cuts.
🔸 Gold and equities flying.
🔸 Fed tone turning dovish.
📊 So yes – September can be a correction month… but with macro tailwinds like these, crypto bulls might still have room to run 🥳
What do you think – September surprise rally, or will seasonality win this time?
