Non-farm payroll data is set to be released, and the Federal Reserve's probability of a rate cut in September slightly decreases to 97.6%
On September 5, at 20:30 Beijing time, the United States will release the unemployment rate for August and the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment data. In the lead-up to this critical data release, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have undergone slight adjustments.
According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September has slightly decreased to 97.6%. Although it remains at an extremely high level, close to a "done deal," this minor change also reflects the market's cautious wait-and-see attitude regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction ahead of significant economic data releases.
Non-farm payroll data has always been an important reference for the Federal Reserve in formulating monetary policy, as it can intuitively reflect the warmth or coldness of the U.S. job market, thereby influencing key economic indicators such as inflation and economic growth. If this non-farm data performs strongly, it may further cool market expectations for a rate cut in September; conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, it will likely solidify the current high rate cut expectations.
