As of August 30, 2025, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States increased to 237,000, exceeding market expectations of 230,000, reaching a new high since June. This data indicates that the U.S. labor market is experiencing a substantial cooling, combined with signals such as the ADP employment figure increasing by only 54,000 (far below the expected 68,000) and corporate layoff announcements surging to nearly 86,000, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September has risen to 97.4%. The impact of this economic environment on the cryptocurrency market can be analyzed from the following three dimensions:

First, risk-averse funds shifting towards cryptocurrencies boost demand.

A weak labor market is often accompanied by increased volatility in traditional assets, while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, due to their decentralized nature, are seen by some investors as tools to hedge against the depreciation of the dollar and inflation. Historical data shows that in October 2022, when initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 219,000, the price of Bitcoin rose by 1.9% within a week. In the current environment, if the non-farm payroll report further confirms the risk of economic recession, it may trigger more funds to shift from the stock and bond markets to the cryptocurrency market, especially mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Second, the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts reinforces the valuation logic of cryptocurrencies.

The market generally anticipates that the Federal Reserve will stimulate the economy through rate cuts, and a liquidity easing environment usually benefits risk assets. The cryptocurrency market has already priced in this expectation: as of September 5, 2025, although the price of Bitcoin has adjusted due to short-term risk-averse sentiment, it has still maintained a 12% increase for the year, while Ethereum has risen by 28% due to the active DeFi ecosystem. If the Federal Reserve initiates a rate-cutting cycle at the September meeting, the “anti-inflation narrative” of cryptocurrencies may regain dominance, attracting long-term allocation funds to enter the market.

Third, rising market volatility tests the resilience of cryptocurrencies.

It is important to note that a worsening labor market may trigger a chain reaction. For example, after the data release on September 4, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a liquidation amount of $297 million within 24 hours, with over 110,000 people being forcibly liquidated. This indicates that during periods of increasing economic uncertainty, the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market may amplify investment risks, especially for leveraged traders who need to be wary of short-term price fluctuations. #美国当周失业金人数 $BTC