With the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data last night, the market has once again welcomed expectations of interest rate cuts. However, after experiencing a brief surge, the overall market has fallen back, currently stabilizing above 110,000 USD.
BTC buying pressure is weak, ETH reserve strategy is yet to be verified
On September 4th, the U.S. BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of 227 million USD in a single day, shifting back to net outflow after achieving over 300 million USD net inflow on September 2nd and 3rd. This indicates that the market has turned bearish on BTC price trends. Currently, the total net inflow for the BTC spot ETF is 54.55 billion USD; the recent performance of the U.S. ETH spot ETF data has been even more dismal, with continuous net outflows from August 29th to September 4th. On September 4th alone, the net outflow reached 167 million USD, and the total net inflow stands at 13.04 billion USD.
In summary, the market has entered the 'concept verification phase', with BTC buying slightly dispersed and weak; whether the 'ETH reserve strategy' of listed companies can achieve the effect of 'coins and stocks flying together' is also entering the verification phase; coupled with the tightening of U.S. regulatory policies on 'listed companies establishing crypto reserves', the market is entering another round of hibernation.
The institutional-level buying of BTC has temporarily peaked: the holdings of listed companies have surpassed 1 million BTC.
On September 4, BitcoinTreasuries reported that the total amount of Bitcoin held by global listed companies has now exceeded 1 million coins, reaching 1,000,442 coins, of which Strategy ranks first, holding 636,505 Bitcoins.
Strong as Strategy, compared to the current large-scale 'BTC listed company reserves' and the even larger gradually awakening BTC OG and ancient whale selling pressure, the buying power still appears somewhat weak. It is worth mentioning that the latest news indicates that although it meets the relevant requirements, Strategy has failed to enter the S&P 500 index.
Moreover, more listed companies only view the BTC reserve strategy as one of the means to boost stock prices, lacking both the capability and motivation to purchase more BTC, resulting in the buying pressure being insignificant compared to selling pressure. Thus, it can be seen that the 'BTC institutional-level buying' phase for listed companies has temporarily peaked, requiring more favorable stimulation to accelerate again.
ETH reserves have entered the verification phase, and related concept stocks have shown weak performance.
Currently, the ETH reserves of listed companies have reached 4.71 million coins, valued at $2.034 billion, accounting for 3.89% of the total ETH supply, with the number of participating companies increasing to 71, but regarding the stock price performance of major listed companies, the effectiveness of the ETH reserve strategy remains to be verified.
Looking at the stock price performance of the top three listed companies by ETH reserve (as of September 6):
Bitmine (BMNR) stock price is currently reported at $42.04, a decline of nearly 75% compared to the historical high of $161 in July;
Sharplink (SBET) stock price is currently reported at $14.94, a decline of nearly 90% compared to the historical high of $124.12 in May;
ETH Machine (ETHM) stock price is currently reported at $10.75, a decline of nearly 30% compared to the historical high of $15.24 in July.
Tightening regulation: Nasdaq will strengthen the review of listed companies' cryptocurrency investments.
Nasdaq is strengthening its review of cryptocurrency investment activities of its listed companies. Previously, some companies raised funds to purchase cryptocurrency assets, thereby boosting their stock performance. However, Nasdaq has expressed concerns about this behavior, believing it may mislead investors, and has decided to strengthen regulatory measures.
Currently, Nasdaq has not publicly disclosed specific regulatory actions, but it is expected to require relevant companies to disclose detailed information about their cryptocurrency investments, including investment scale, strategy, and potential risks. In addition, Nasdaq may conduct special reviews of companies that frequently trade cryptocurrency assets to ensure their activities comply with market standards. This initiative reflects the growing attention of regulatory bodies to the cryptocurrency market.
In summary, the fluctuations in the crypto market may continue, and considering the current economic policies in the United States, perhaps only interest rate cuts can bring about a new round of favorable stimulation.
Non-farm data meets expectations, and the market response is flat.
According to Jin Ten Data, the unemployment rate in the U.S. for August was recorded at 4.3%, compared to the previous value of 4.2%, with an expectation of 4.3%. The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population in the U.S. for August recorded 75,000, compared to the previous value of 79,000, with an expectation of 75,000. Overall, the results meet expectations.
Overall, the new jobs added in June and July have been revised down by 21,000 compared to previous data. This also means that there was a certain degree of optimism in the previous employment data. Just three days ago, on September 3, after the U.S. employment data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September rose to 98%. Thus, it can be seen that interest rate cuts seem somewhat imminent.
The non-farm data now meets expectations, which somewhat increases the possibility of interest rate cuts, but the positive impact is modest; therefore, the market's response has been flat, which is reflected in the current slight fluctuations in the overall market performance.
The key monthly support for BTC is $107,600, and the market is in a recovery phase.
BTC's current price at the monthly level is $110,700, slightly above the short-term holder realized price of $107,600, which is viewed as a critical monthly bullish support level.
Additionally, the NUPL indicator is at 0.53, indicating that the market is in a broadly profitable state, but has not yet reached the extreme levels of previous cycles. High time frames remain bullish, but the market is still in a recovery phase and is sensitive to profit-taking. The key reference point is the STH realized price of $107,000; maintaining this region will support the continuation of the upward trend. Currently, NUPL has not shown signs of final euphoria, indicating that there is still room for further increases after consolidation.
