Recently, the news of 'Trump's passing' has continued to ferment online. Although the authenticity of the news has yet to be officially confirmed, a series of abnormal signs have already aroused widespread public suspicion.
As a figure with a significant presence on the international political stage, Trump's recent 'silence' seems particularly unusual. Previously vocal and keen on maintaining his visibility, he has had no public activity for nearly a week, and this contrast alone is enough to provoke speculation from the outside. Additionally, the sudden temporary halt of the U.S. stock market yesterday, without any warning, has added some 'credibility' to this rumor—at a time when finance and politics are deeply intertwined, any unusual event can easily be interpreted as a signal of potential major changes.
However, in the absence of concrete evidence, all discussions should still be based on 'hypotheses.' If the news of Trump's passing is true, its impact on financial markets and the international political landscape is worthy of in-depth examination.
From a financial market perspective, the 'timing' of the news release may be critical, likely occurring after the release of non-farm payroll data on September 6. Non-farm payroll data serves as a core indicator for global financial markets, having a decisive impact on stock markets, foreign exchange markets, and commodity trends. As a highly scrutinized political figure globally, his passing would undoubtedly trigger severe market turbulence. This 'timing gap' may be exploited by some sharp financial institutions: first, by leveraging non-farm data to drive up market prices to attract investors, then suddenly releasing the news of his passing to trigger panic selling, ultimately completing a 'buy high, sell low' operation. In fact, using significant political events to manipulate markets for profit is not an isolated occurrence in financial history.
On a political level, Trump's influence should not be underestimated. The trade protectionism and radical immigration policies he implemented during his tenure profoundly reshaped the direction of domestic policy in the United States and the global political and economic landscape; at the same time, he has a large supporter base within the Republican Party, and his political ideology remains an important 'barometer' within the party. If he were to pass away, the internal structure of the Republican Party might undergo a 'major reshuffle': the divisions among various factions regarding policy positions and power distribution could intensify, which would in turn affect the direction of U.S. domestic politics after the 2024 elections and possibly even longer, leading to a potential chain reaction in America's stance on international affairs and its relationships with allies.
On the international stage, the 'unilateralism' in foreign policy during Trump's tenure has strained relationships with multiple countries. His departure may create some easing space for certain stalled international relations, but it could also give rise to new uncertainties due to the re-negotiation of political power within the United States. For example, regarding the Middle East issue, the Trump administration's 'unconditional support' for Israel has been a significant factor affecting the regional situation; whether and how U.S. Middle East policy will shift after his passing will directly impact the security dynamics of the region.
Finally, it is essential to emphasize that until the news is officially confirmed, all speculation should remain rational to avoid being misled by false information. However, this rumor also serves as a reminder: in the era of globalization, politics and finance are already deeply intertwined, and any seemingly isolated event can trigger a chain reaction akin to the 'butterfly effect.' For investors, it is crucial to remain vigilant about potential risks and to assess market fluctuations rationally; for the general public, paying attention to changes in the international political and economic landscape is particularly important—these changes could ultimately affect everyone’s daily life through channels like prices, employment, and international trade.
