Yesterday there was still cheering for ETH breaking its historical high, and today "new Fed correspondent" Nick Timiraos threw out a "cooling article" — every word is filled with the Fed's "cold signals"; only after reading it do you realize: this round of crypto celebration may be coming to an early end!
You should know that this article was published just one day after Powell "hinted at a rate cut in September"; Timiraos had enough time to communicate with the Federal Reserve internally, and it contains both officials' "whispers" and his precise interpretations, essentially equivalent to the Federal Reserve's "official backstab". Veteran players are closely watching this piece for direction!
1. Just after releasing "dovish signals for rate cuts", they turn around and say "don't think too much".
The article starts off by pouring cold water on the market: "Powell said there might be a rate cut in September, but that doesn't mean you should think rates will keep going down!"
Translated, it means: September may offer a "sweet deal" for a rate cut, but to start a "continuous rate cut cycle"? Not a chance!
Think back to a few days ago when ETH surged to $4888; everyone in the group was shouting "the bull market is secure", and now the Fed has drawn a red line — this rise was already dependent on "rate cut expectations", and now that expectation has been discounted, whether the crypto price can stabilize is truly uncertain.
2. Compared to last year's speeches, this year's "rate cut signals" are as soft as cotton.
The article directly compares Powell's Jackson Hole speeches over the past two years, highlighting a stark difference that hits hard:
Last year: "The time for policy adjustment has come, and the direction is clear" — with just one sentence, the market immediately understood "it's time to loosen up", and Bitcoin soared from $19,000 to $69,000.
This year: "The risk balance seems to be shifting, and policy adjustments may be needed" — the whole statement is vague, without mentioning direction or timing; in plain terms, it means "we haven't decided yet, let's take it one step at a time".
It's like the boss making promises: last year it was "next month there will definitely be a raise, how much is good enough"; this year it's "there might be raises in the future, but it's uncertain when" — the Fed itself isn't sure, so why should the crypto market dare to keep soaring?
3. Internal chaos! The September rate cut may just be a "one-time benefit".
What's more alarming is that there is currently no consensus within the Federal Reserve! The article directly pointed out three big names opposing interest rate cuts, two of whom are core members — Cleveland Fed President Mester and St. Louis Fed President Bullard.
If these two keep resisting, even if there is a rate cut in September, it might only be a "one-time insurance", not the "rate cut cycle" everyone is expecting. It's like you think your boss will raise your salary every month, but instead, you only receive a one-time holiday bonus, and once it's spent, it's gone — without policy support afterward, the crypto market may likely retract again.
Moreover, there is a big test next Friday! The core PCE data for July, which the Fed values most, is set to be released, expected to rise to 2.9% (the highest in six months). If it really is that high, don't even mention rate cuts; not raising rates would be considered good — I made this mistake in 2018 when inflation exceeded expectations, and the Fed abandoned its pause on rate hikes, causing ETH to fall from $800 to $100. I still feel anxious thinking about it!
An urgent warning for crypto players
If you have ETH and are in profit, don't get complacent! Quickly set your take profit and stop-loss levels; if the price falls below $4500, don't hesitate to reduce your position first, don't wait for a correction to wipe out your profits.
If you still want to chase the highs, wake up! The expectation of interest rate cuts has been doused with cold water; after hitting a new high, the risks far outweigh the opportunities, and jumping in now could very likely mean taking the fall.
Keep a close watch on these two! The upcoming speeches from Mester and Bullard are a must-see; if they continue to oppose rate cuts, there is a high probability that September won't offer any "continuous benefits".
Don't forget to watch the PCE data next Friday! This is critically important; if the data exceeds expectations, the crypto market may very likely take a significant hit.
Tonight I will be keeping an eye on the latest speeches from Fed officials and will monitor ETH's market movements in real time; if there are any signs of movement, I will inform the fan group immediately. Making money in crypto has never been about "gambling on celebrations", but about paying close attention to the Fed's "mood" — if you want to avoid this risk, following me is definitely the right choice!
