Forecast
First, the conclusion:
• Short-term bullish bias but weak momentum: Price 4753, above EMA7(4750) and EMA25(4743), far above EMA99(4701) → Structurally still bullish dominant;
• RSI(6/12/24 ≈ 57/56/54): Slightly bullish, not overheated;
• MACD 0.24, DIF≈DEA: Just turned positive/weak golden cross, very little momentum, needs "volume" to cooperate for further movement;
• Insufficient volume: Current Vol≈1.57K significantly lower than MA(5)=8.72K, MA(10)=14.40K → Short-term breakthrough needs to increase volume, otherwise more like range oscillation.
Key Levels (by priority)
Resistance:
• ① 4770–4775
• ② 4800 round number
• ③ 4888 (24h high point, not considered a level that can be passed in one go)
Support:
• ① 4750/4743 (EMA7/EMA25 overlap zone, if lost it will turn weak)
• ② 4725 (the node level in your list)
• ③ 4701 (bull-bear dividing line)
• ④ 4689 → 4677 → 4654 (stepped support zone)
Next, 3 possible scenarios
A. Continuation of upward movement (probability depends on volume)
• Condition: 15m candlestick closes above 4775, while trading volume increases to ≥MA(10).
• Target: 4800 → 4825/4835 → 4880–4890.
• Risk: If the volume does not meet expectations or is a false breakout, it can easily be pushed back to 4750.
B. Range oscillation (currently more like this)
• Range: 4700–4775 back and forth;
• Strategy: Do not chase at the upper edge, watch for short opportunities; do not sell at the lower edge, lightly buy on dips, reduce operations at the middle (≈4740–4755), wait for edge signals.
C. Weakening pullback (volume continues to shrink + breaks below moving average zone)
• Trigger: Break below 4740 and 15m continuously closes below it;
• Target: 4725 → 4701 (strong support); if 4701 is lost, pay attention to 4689/4677/4654 for staggered buying positions.