August 22, 2025 โ All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powellโs speech at Jackson Hole, and markets are quickly changing their bets on whether the Fed will cut interest rates in September.
๐ฅ Market Odds โ Whatโs the Latest?
๐ 71.5% chance of a 25 bps cut, according to Invest โ down from earlier higher expectations.
๐ Below 50%, says Ed Yardeni (Seeking Alpha), pointing to inflation staying sticky.
๐ Just 25% chance, according to Reuters, as strong U.S. manufacturing data reduces pressure on the Fed to ease.
๐ Why Expectations Are Shifting
Rising Unemployment Claims โ Traders are nervous about the labor market.
High Inflation & Strong Growth โ The Fed may hesitate to cut rates too soon.
Robust Manufacturing (PMI data) โ Suggests the U.S. economy is holding up well.
๐ฐ What This Means
Not long ago, markets were confident a September cut was coming. Now, the odds range anywhere between 25% and 70%, depending on which report you follow.
๐ The biggest focus is Powellโs speech. His words could decide whether markets price in a cut again โ or push expectations further out.
For crypto traders, this matters: lower rates often fuel risk assets like BTC, ETH, and DeFi tokens. But if the Fed stays cautious, volatility could spike.
โก Bottom line: The rate-cut story isnโt dead, but itโs on hold. All eyes on Powell.
