Will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates in September? It doesn't matter who says what; regardless of the analysis or predictions, it ultimately comes down to what the Federal Reserve decides.

Setting aside uncertain factors, let's talk about certainties.

Next year, on May 22, 2026, Powell will step down, and Trump will appoint a Federal Reserve Chairperson he favors (1.5), Waller 1, Bowman 1, replacing Cook 1, a resigning board member returning 1, and two moderates, along with Republicans, already exceeding a majority.

Trump will have absolute control over the Federal Reserve, and at this point, lowering interest rates and expanding the balance sheet will be a natural course of action. The cryptocurrency market will see another bull market; this time, if there's significant liquidity, not only Bitcoin will soar, but mainstream coins like Ethereum and altcoins will also take off! (At this time, it would be wise to invest in fundamentally strong altcoins that have fallen significantly, which will see good price increases.)

According to historical trends, when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, the dollar index first declines, U.S. bonds rise, and U.S. stocks fall, just like the recent days. After U.S. bonds rise, U.S. stocks begin to rebound; this is the time to enter the market because Bitcoin is correlated with U.S. stocks, and the Nasdaq may need to pull back to around 20,000.

If they don't lower rates, just wait for a gradual bearish shift, and after a deep drop, slowly accumulate before eating well after the rate cut in June next year.

This bear market is atypical; it will not exhibit the dramatic crashes of the past. The bull-bear cycle occurs every four years on Thursdays, which has already been broken, along with Bitcoin and U.S. stock cycles.

Currently, betting empty on a significant drop without rate cuts is not advisable, nor is going all-in on a guaranteed rate cut surge.

This analysis is for reference only and should not be considered investment advice.