Today, Wall Street traders predict that the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped from over 90% to 78%.

A Federal Reserve governor spoke up; I didn't remember this governor's name, but he mentioned that there might be one rate cut this year.

Federal Reserve governor Harker also stated that, based on the data, the Fed will not cut rates in September.

In my personal opinion, there will be no rate cut in September.

The main reason is that if a rate cut were to happen, the former president wouldn't be the one to interfere with the Federal Reserve governors; he'd be pushing for their resignations and investigating them.

Also, regarding the data, Federal Reserve Chair Powell relies on data, and the data does not support a rate cut.

I was previously worried that the Federal Reserve might cut rates due to political pressure, affecting the Fed's policy independence. Just like last September, to help the Democrats, they cut by 50 basis points; at that time, I misjudged this prediction, as it seemed like there would be no rate cut, yet they cut by 50 basis points! Not 25 basis points!!!

Now, with the former president involved with the Federal Reserve, I actually feel that the Fed is standing firm, and the likelihood of not cutting rates is very high.

Yesterday's meeting minutes also support that my thoughts are correct; if Powell's speech tomorrow can confirm this again, we can basically predict that there will be no rate cut in September.

This is merely my personal prediction, for reference only, and should not be taken as investment advice.