The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that most officials supported maintaining the interest rate unchanged last month, with 2 dissenting votes (Trump's confidants).

The federal funds rate is near neutral (no need to cut rates to stimulate the economy, nor to raise rates to suppress inflation).

The impact of tariffs has been significantly reflected in commodity prices. The tariff effect still carries considerable uncertainty. The inflation of commodity prices constitutes upward pressure, and the inflation risk is greater than the employment risk (the prices of goods have risen, inflation is about to rise).

The overall U.S. economy is still doing well. (GDP can remain stable, and there will be no recession).

Federal Reserve staff have lowered the inflation expectations from the June meeting (as a result, inflation rose a bit).

Closely monitor the growth of stablecoins and the related risks after the passage of the (GENIUS Act) (what this risk is, we cannot know for now).

The unemployment rate remains low (the unemployment rate has been effectively controlled).

Stablecoins may increase the demand for U.S. Treasuries (it is clear that the U.S. promotes stablecoins for the purpose of U.S. Treasuries, which is completely different from Japan's issuance of stablecoins pegged to the yen).

The overall meeting minutes maintain the execution power of not lowering interest rates. Only after the downward revision of employment data did the current market's expectation of a rate cut in September arise. After reading the minutes, I think my inference is: it is very likely that there will be no rate cut in September. Trump is getting anxious and is starting to use political pressure to change the Federal Reserve Board to achieve his goals, but he cannot understand Powell.

When the meeting minutes were announced, Bitcoin dropped from 1144 to 1132. The market has already sensed that subsequent news may lower the expectation of a rate cut in September due to the meeting minutes.

A significant drop without a rate cut will provide an opportunity to buy the dip. Before a rate cut, there will also be a golden opportunity to buy the dip. Just be prepared. The non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate on September 5th are particularly crucial. If employment remains stable and the unemployment rate stabilizes, it will lower the expectation of a rate cut.

Analysis for reference only, not as investment advice.