Dogecoin's price has retraced by 2% in the past 24 hours, erasing weekly gains and pushing the 7-day performance into negative territory. Some on-chain indicators suggest that Dogecoin's downside potential may not be over yet. Specifically, the segmentation of two key groups and supply profit data indicates a potential bearish continuation. If key support levels break, Doge could drop, possibly leading to a 15% decline from current levels.
Two important cohorts are exiting
The HODL Waves indicator shows that two key Dogecoin holding groups are now reducing their positions. These cohorts are:
Holders from 6 months to 12 months have seen their share drop from 15.46% to 14.705% over the past two weeks
Holders from 1 month to 3 months have sharply decreased from 8.0% to only 4.614%
This indicates that medium to long-term believers are also selling off, not just short-term traders. These groups typically signal a shift in sentiment among the broader holder community. When both reduce exposure simultaneously, it usually indicates a decline in confidence regarding recent price recoveries. This is especially concerning as this shift occurs during a downturn rather than after a rebound. It means these holders are not taking profits; they are exiting with losses or minimal returns, which could signal deeper downside concerns.
HODL Waves by age shows the distribution of tokens, helping to determine how long different holder groups have held tokens before moving them.
Profit supply remains high, which is a concern
Currently, 76.95% of Dogecoin's circulating supply is still profitable. Historically, whenever this number exceeds 73%, the price adjusts accordingly. The last time it was at the same level, around July 30, Dogecoin was trading at approximately $0.22. Shortly after, the price dropped to $0.19. At that time, the proportion of supply in profit fell to 61.79%, and only after resetting did the Dogecoin price start to rise again. We are now in the same 76% range, with the risk that the same setup may replay: profit supply needs to decrease before buyers return. Until then, every rise faces heavy selling pressure.
This is also related to HODL Waves. When profit supply is high, and medium to long-term holders begin to reduce their positions, it typically reflects fear of losing profits or preemptively selling off.
Dogecoin Price Chart and Key Indicators Confirm Bearish Pressure
Technically, Dogecoin is hovering near the key support level of $0.21. If this level breaks, the structure will be entirely bearish. The next key support level is $0.20, but the broader bearish target is at $0.18, which would mark a 15% drop from the current price. Meanwhile, the Bull-Bear Power (BBP) indicator has turned negative. This means the selling pressure has exceeded buying power, reinforcing what on-chain data has already shown. Retail is selling off, and buyers are staying away.
Bull-Bear Power (BBP) Indicator, also known as Elder Ray Index, measures the strength of buyers (bulls) and sellers (bears) by calculating the difference between price extremes and moving averages. It helps determine whether bullish or bearish strength currently dominates the market. Momentum shifts are evident. If the level of $0.21 fails to hold, the possibility of bearish conditions will increase. However, if the Dogecoin price successfully rebounds and breaks through $0.23, the bearish assumption will no longer hold.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
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