
NOT has formed a "deep pit + high wall" structure around 0.0018: the lower part is a vacuum area of two-year lows, while the upper part is a massive trapped zone at 0.0021-0.0022; short-term funds are digging a pit to accumulate shares, waiting for a volume-driven "spring" rebound.
Key interval structure and trading volume distribution
1. Value anchoring area (POC): 0.002163, the maximum trading density over the past two weeks, with ample long and short turnover, can be considered a mid-term dividing line.
2. High volume area (HVN):
• 0.002021-0.002025: the first short-term rebound ceiling, with multiple previous highs and pullbacks, accumulating 73 million USDT in transactions.
• 0.002155-0.002163: overlaps with POC, forming a second pressure zone.
3. Low volume gap (LVN):
• 0.001786-0.001789: the only true vacuum gap below the current price, if broken with volume, will quickly slide towards 0.0017.
• 0.002273-0.002276: upper vacuum, if broken, can see 0.00235.
4. 70% trading volume coverage area: 0.001911-0.002178; the current price of 0.00181 is located on the lower edge of this area, in a short-term "oversold + edge" state.
5. Momentum verification: around 0.00181, the recent 4-hour Up Volume ratio is only 41%, still dominated by bears; but if it returns above 0.00186 and Up > 60%, it will be considered a signal for bulls to take over.
Market cycle judgment
Weekly level is at the end of the main bearish wave; daily line is in the 5th week of oscillation in the large box of 0.0017-0.0022, short-term is at the lower edge of the box. Contract holdings have decreased by 15% in the past 7 days, with a slight negative funding rate, showing extremely pessimistic sentiment, consistent with bottom characteristics.
Trading strategy (short-term 1-2 days)
• Aggressive long position: 0.00181±0.00001 (current price range), stop loss at 0.001775 (LVN lower edge -0.5ATR), first target 0.00186, second target 0.00202 (HVN lower edge), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.8:1.
• Conservative long position: wait for a 15m level volume increase to return to 0.00186 and Up Volume > 60% before entering on a pullback, stop loss at 0.00183, targets as above, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.2:1.
• Conservative short position: if a rebound occurs near 0.00202 with a long upper shadow + Down Volume > 55%, a light position can be taken short, stop loss at 0.00203, target 0.00190, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4:1.
Risk warning: if it breaks 0.001775 with volume, the strategy fails, and flip to short to 0.0017.
LP Market Making Suggestions
Suggest placing a double-sided narrow grid in the range of 0.00178-0.00188:
• The lower edge is close to the LVN vacuum, which can absorb panic selling;
• The upper edge is near the lower Bollinger Band and deviates from the MA200 by -9% mean reversion expectation;
• The range width is approximately 5.6%, suitable for capturing price differences in an environment with a 1% funding rate.
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