“BB falls another 10%, is it a bottom fishing opportunity or the entrance to the abyss?”
Summary in one sentence:
The price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, and the RSI 21 is extremely oversold, yet there is a large vacuum zone above the 0.1335 value anchor — it's like compressing a spring to its limit, either it rebounds or it snaps completely.
Key interval structure and volume distribution
1. Value anchor area: POC 0.1335 (225 million in volume) is the “consensus price” over the past two weeks, and the current price deviates by -18%. Historically, after a deviation of >15%, there is a 70% probability of a pullback to POC within 48 hours.
2. High volume area: HVN-1 0.1306–0.1328, HVN-2 0.1357–0.1372, forming the first and second resistance for a rebound.
3. Low volume gap: LVN-1 0.0949–0.0960 (only 25.25 million in volume) is a rapid decline channel, if it breaks below 0.107, it will accelerate to explore this area; LVN-2 0.1488–0.1503 is a potential short covering target.
4. 70% volume coverage area: 0.0993–0.1415. The current price is within the lower edge, considered as “lower bound of the range + oversold”.
5. Momentum verification: In the 0.107–0.109 range, Up Volume accounts for 54%, slightly bullish, but not yet >60%, waiting for volume confirmation.
6. Bollinger Band: The lower band at 0.1071 coincides with the upper edge of the LVN gap, forming a resonance support; heavy selling pressure is above MA200 at 0.1217.
Market cycle
Late bear market with oscillations seeking a bottom: Contract positions have decreased by 2.6% in 24 hours, yet the long-short ratio has risen to 2.28, indicating that short-term shorts are increasing. If there is short covering, it will trigger a rapid rebound.
Trading strategy
Aggressive: At the current price of 0.1093, take a small position to go long, stop loss at 0.1058 (below the LVN gap), target 0.1197 (MA200), risk-reward ratio 2.8.
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to the 0.1070–0.1080 range, look for a 15-minute bullish candle with ≥60% Up Volume to re-enter, stop loss at 0.1050, target 0.1335 (POC), risk-reward ratio 4.1.
Cautious: After breaking above 0.1153 (HVN-3) with volume confirmation, go long, stop loss at 0.1115, target 0.1250, risk-reward ratio 2.3.
Risk warning: If the 1-hour closing price falls below 0.1050, the strategy is invalid, consider taking a short position targeting 0.0949.
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