【Bottom Alert! XRP Drops Deep to the Lower Bollinger Band, Oversold + Large Orders Supporting, Short-term Rebound Imminent?】

Summary in One Sentence: XRP has dropped 6.16% in 24 hours, with the price deviating from MA200 by 7.7%, and the RSI reaching 24, indicating extreme overselling; however, buy orders are accumulating on the order book, and there is strong demand for short covering above POC, suggesting a potential 'squat jump' style rebound in the short term.

Key Interval Structure and Volume Distribution

1. Value Anchoring Area: POC 3.009 (maximum 20-day trading volume), with shorts dominating above (Down Vol 61%), and buy orders starting to increase below.

2. High Volume Areas: HVN1 2.990-3.014, HVN2 3.268-3.283, serving as natural resistance/pullback buffer zones.

3. Low Volume Gap: LVN 2.731-2.798, a vacuum area for rapid breakthroughs or pullbacks.

4. 70% Value Area: 2.961-3.326; the current price of 2.878 is at the lower edge of the range, indicating short-term overselling.

5. Momentum Verification: Up Vol above POC is only 39%, favoring shorts; however, the Up Vol in the 2.83-2.87 range has risen to 55%, indicating local buy testing.

6. Auxiliary Signals: Lower Bollinger Band at 2.833, MA200 at 3.117, indicating excessive divergence; contract OI decreased by 3.1% in 24 hours, with sufficient leverage washout.

7. Order Book Anomaly: Buy order at 5.1 million vs sell order at 2.31 million, with a thick buy wall in the 2.8-2.87 area, providing strong short-term support.

Market Cycle Judgment

In the medium term, still in the high-level correction phase, short-term entering the 'panic final drop stage', with a window for oversold rebound.

Trading Strategy (15m-1h Level)

Aggressive: Buy on a pullback to LVN 2.83±0.01, stop loss at 2.817 (recent HVN bottom -0.5 ATR), target POC 3.009, risk-reward ratio ≈2.1.

Conservative: Wait for a breakthrough and pullback to 2.90 (inside VAH) with Up Vol > 60% before re-entering, stop loss at 2.88, target 3.05, risk-reward ratio ≈2.5.

Cautious: If there is a volume breakout above 3.014 followed by a pullback that does not break 3.00, chase the buy, stop loss at 2.985, target 3.268, risk-reward ratio ≈2.8.

Risk Warning: If it breaks below 2.817 and the 15m closes with volume, the strategy is invalidated, reverse to short with a target of 2.75.

LP Market Making Recommendation

Recommended Range: 2.85-3.05 USDT

Reason: The lower edge of the range is a dense buy area + Bollinger Band lower band protection, while the upper edge is close to POC and HVN1, with active trading and moderate volatility, allowing for collection of bilateral fees and reduction of impermanent loss.

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