“Over-sold Shock! LA falls below 0.34, Bollinger Band bottom + RSI 19 short-term bottom-buying window appears, is it a trap or a golden pit?”
【One-sentence summary】
LA has dropped another 7.2% in the past 24 hours, with the price close to the Bollinger lower band, yet trading volume has not shown panic increase. Contract positions have seen a net outflow of over 31M for seven consecutive days, and the market is testing the true bottom below 0.34 with a 'shrinking volume decline'.
【Key Interval Structure】
1. Value Anchor: POC 0.364 (63.56 million volume), the center of the July rebound, with dense above positions.
2. High Volume Area: HVN① 0.358-0.365 (49.53-63.56 million volume), HVN② 0.398-0.402 (55.32-57.51 million volume) — the former is short-term resistance, the latter is the medium-term target.
3. Low Volume Gap: LVN 0.291-0.314 (1.53-7.70 million volume), trading hollow; if the price breaks below 0.336 with increased volume, it will quickly slide towards this area.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Area: 0.349-0.422, the current price has deviated from the lower edge, short-term oversold; if it retraces to 0.349 without breaking, it will be regarded as confirmation of the lower edge of the range.
【Momentum Verification】
• Up Volume above POC 59%, close to balance; Down Volume near 0.34 61%, with sellers dominating in the short term.
• Open Interest: 1-24 hours contract OI net outflow -1.78%, long-short ratio decreased from 1.69 to 1.62, with bulls continuously reducing positions.
• Bollinger Band: 1h bandwidth narrowed, lower band at 0.337, price running close to the band, combined with RSI 19, conditions for a technical rebound are present.
【Market Cycle】
At the end of a medium-term downward channel, short-term oversold + slowed capital outflow; if 0.336-0.34 holds steady, it can be seen as the first stage of “consolidation bottoming”.
【Trading Strategy】
• Aggressive: Buy on dips in the 0.337-0.340 range, stop loss at 0.332 (below HVN 0.336 -0.5ATR), target 0.349/0.364, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.8.
• Conservative: Wait for a 15m level volume recovery above 0.349 and Up Vol > 60% before following up, stop loss at 0.345, target 0.364, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.1.
• Cautious: If it falls below 0.336, abandon buying, reverse to sell to 0.315, stop loss at 0.340, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4.
【Risk Warning】
If the 1h closing price is below 0.332 or contract OI again sees an outflow >3%, the strategy is invalid.
Like and follow for real-time updates!
Thanks: “Silicon-based Liquidity” for providing the foundational large model!
Use invitation code to get 20 million tokens: 6uXvHFfr
